'She's got a lot of ability' - notebooks at the ready with Royal Ascot clues on offer in Hilary Needler

Every winner of the Hilary Needler since 2010 has gone on to run at the same year's Royal Ascot. The last to follow up was Attraction in 2003. A sharper pointer towards this race's diminished status is that last year's winner, Midnight Affair, was the first to go off at single-figure odds at Royal Ascot since 2016. Before that, Hilary Needler winners got much more respect at the royal meeting.

Grizzel, the 2016 winner, was the last to record a Racing Post Rating north of 90 in the Hilary Needler. You would take even-money about that continuing, given the highest rated in this field is currently on 77.

That horse is Maw Lam, who has the added advantage of breaking from stall one of 15. The bias towards low-drawn horses over five furlongs at Beverley remains strong, albeit it is amply allowed for in the market. In other words, they have an excellent strike-rate but that overperformance is much reduced by measures that factor in a horse's starting price.

High-drawn horses have a wretched record whichever way you look at it. Karl Burke will be cursing his luck. He has three entrants and the two with the most obvious form claims, Storm Call and Larchill Lass, will come from the two highest stalls.

Right on their inside is Sands Of Dubai, representing red-hot Richard Fahey. She is a half-sister to Jumbeau, who by this point in her juvenile season had already gained black type. Next along the line is Mademoiselle, who was second to Maw Lam last time.

Several of the potential dangers to Maw Lam have come out badly on the draw, while she has landed the jackpot. It would be logical to expect her odds to tighten between now and race time as others drift. Noting market moves that run counter to that theory could tell punters quite a lot.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Michael Dods, trainer of Brazilian Belle
She's a nice filly. It wasn't a great race that she won last time at Catterick, but she showed a good attitude on a track that probably didn't suit her. She's straightforward and deserves the chance to run in a nice race. I'm not saying she could win it, but we'd hope she could run a good race.

Karl Burke, trainer of Invincible Annice, Storm Call and Larchill Lass
Invincible Annice ran very well in a seller at Musselburgh. She's got a lot of ability and we only went there because of the big prize-money. She's got a good draw in stall two. The other two have bad draws but deserve to have a crack at it as they've got ability.

George Scott, trainer of Mademoiselle
She’s not been dealt a great hand with the draw in stall 12 but she’s taken a step forward every time she’s run and we expect the stiff five furlongs to suit her. If she wins, she'd be in Royal Ascot conversations.

Adrian Nicholls, trainer of Maw Lam
She's a good filly and has a good draw. She was impressive first time out and we're going there to get more experience into her. Win, lose or draw, we'll be looking to go to Ascot afterwards.

Philip Robinson, racing manager to Jaber Abdullah, owner of Nad Alshiba Snow
She ran a good race to be second to a colt we run later, Moving Force, over course and distance last time. She’s got a decent draw in stall seven and there's no reason why she can’t be in the shake-up again.

Tom Clover, trainer of Over Spiced
She’s a hardy filly who's well drawn in stall four and the form of her win at Leicester last time has been franked by the second and third. It’s a deep race but hopefully she can be in the mix.

Dylan Cunha, trainer of Havana White
She’s ready for her first run but it will be quite hard for her from stall 11. I imagine those who have run will have the experience edge on her but if she'd been drawn lower she could have nicked third or fourth.
Reporting by David Milnes

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3.30 Navan: 'She showed a great attitude to win' - key quotes and analysis for a strong Listed race

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