'She has a great chance' - why it could pay to oppose the unbeaten favourite

Saturday: 2.05 Beverley
Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies' Conditions Stakes | 5f | 2yo | ITV/RTV

One winning favourite from the last eight runnings of the Hilary Needler outlines the value in looking beyond the obvious, even if likely favourite Absolutelyflawless has good credentials.

Title-chasing William Buick takes the ride and is 1-2 for the Dave Loughnane yard. Following Loughnane at Beverley has proved a highly profitable strategy too. Backing all the trainer’s representatives to £1 stakes would have yielded a £57.25 profit, although there are no guarantees Absolutelyflawless will continue the good work.

Everything panned out perfectly for Absolutelyflawless in the Lily Agnes at Chester as the leaders went too hard and her rider navigated a dream passage around the inside, while the rain-softened ground may also have been a factor. Absolutelyflawless may be up to the task at Beverley but needs to prove her suitability to fast going.

There are others to consider, including the Nigel Tinkler-trained Parr Fire, whose first-season sire James Garfield has made a bright start with his progeny. Recent victories for Lady Bullet and Maria Branwell in the National Stakes have taken his stud record to 3-7 and the unbeaten Parr Fire bids to improve that statistic.

Parr Fire is related to Hugo Palmer’s smart three-year-old Dig Two and she recorded a strong Racing Post Rating of 83 on her debut, winning despite a sluggish break. That figure represents the standout debut performance in this field and she is a big player on her second start.

Recent Catterick scorer Fragrance has claims for Charlie and Mark Johnston and could pay a handy compliment to Two Year Old Trophy favourite Whistle And Flute later on the card. Whistle And Flute had three lengths to spare over Fragrance in a Royal Ascot trial conditions race last month.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Loughnane: 'She's the favourite and rightly so'

While Lola Showgirl's victory in the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies' Stakes proved Dave Loughnane has more strings to his bow than training speedy two-year-olds, he has built his name through the exploits of juveniles such as Go Bears Go and Hello You.

Absolutelyflawless has a record to match her name and has picked up well at the end of both wins, having been slowly away at Southwell and Chester.

Loughnane said: "She's been rock solid, posting two very good runs despite things not going to plan the first day, when she was slowly away and quite green before flying home.

"We knew they were going to go hard at Chester and we were happy to take a lead and follow them round. She’s not the quickest from the gates but she comes with a very strong run at the end. You would like to think the stiff track at Beverley should play to her strengths."

Loughnane added: "She’s the favourite and rightly so. It’s very possible something could take a big step forward but she’s in good order and we’re hopeful of a very big run."

What they say

Brian Ellison, trainer of Breath Catcher
She got spooked by some cows that came over at the start last time but it’s nothing to worry about. The ground was a bit soft for her that day and she wants it better. The form of the race has worked out, with the second and fourth having won since, and we'll see whether she’s good enough.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Distinguished Lady
Everything went wrong for her at Newmarket when she got taken on for the lead and did too much in front, then got badly hampered at a crucial stage. We fancied her to almost win that day and it was just unlucky how things panned out. She’s a good filly and the drop back in trip won’t be a problem. She’s got lots of pace and has a great chance.

Robert Cowell, trainer of Miss Mai Tai
She ran quite well first time up and then ran all right next time but in snatches. We like her but it's a tall order and we're under no illusions about that. Hopefully she'll acquit herself well.

Darryll Holland, trainer of Primrose Ridge
She ran well in the Marygate. She was leading them and they went fast, while they were at her from both sides early on. She ran well in the circumstances. She's a course-and-distance winner. She won from stall 14 that day and here she’s drawn nine of nine, which isn’t too bad, and she's got speed. The favourite might be a bit of an unknown on this ground. This filly loves a fight and has never run a bad race, even on soft ground that she didn't like. She has got a heart.

David O’Meara, trainer of Star Of Lady M and Your Spirit
Star Of Lady M hung right the whole way round Chester as well as probably running a bit free. Hopefully Beverley will suit her better with that little right-hand dogleg and she's drawn pretty well. She's got a lot of natural speed, so she'll be fine. There's a chance Your Spirit might want six furlongs in time but I wanted to give her a run. It's a big ask in the Hilary Needler first time up, and from an average draw as well, but she's a very nice filly and hopefully she'll show up well.
Reporting by Scott Burton

Read Saturday's race previews:

1.45 Haydock: Will Dragon Symbol's class tell against some in-form Achilles rivals?

2.55 Haydock: Can racing's hottest duo Haggas and Marquand keep the winners flowing?

3.15 Beverley: 'He's one of our stronger ones' - quotes and analysis for Two Year Old Trophy

3.30 Haydock: Kinross seeks to deny a Dettori double in wide-open John of Gaunt Stakes

4.00 Navan: Group horse in a handicap? Sun King out to defy big weight in red-hot contest

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