'One of the most competitive 0-135 handicaps around' - but who does Keith Melrose see winning the Mandarin?

The supposed demise of the Mandarin Handicap Chase is often lamented, but this race has so many other good staying handicap chases to compete with in December it could never have held its place. It is arguably a creative piece of race planning to have instead fashioned it into one of the most competitive 0-135s around.

Some of these horses are so interesting that it is wise to check that they do not have bigger targets in mind later in the season. It is tempting to put Bowtogreatness in that category. This is his first run since he shaped as well as winner Midnight River in a Premier handicap at Aintree in April. 

That Bowtogreatness is trained by Ben Pauling knocks confidence in the idea that this is a prep run. Pauling has a clear affinity with the Mandarin. He has run four horses in the race. Their form figures have been 1223.

Pauling's other runner Bangers And Cash is a regional national type who might find this a touch too warm. Yet he suits soft ground and stays well, so if the rain comes and the cheekpieces have the desired effect, he can be a player.

Similarly stamina laden is the Alan King-trained Notachance. He won the Classic Chase in 2021 and was third in both that race and the Midlands National this year. He should come on for last month's reappearance and King has suggested that he is looking for targets below Premier handicap level nowadays. As we know, the Mandarin is a leading race in that pool.

The Mandarin is most famous nowadays for its progressive winners: horses like Saint Palais (who beat Gericault Roque) and Copperhead. Prime candidates from that group this time are Surrey Quest, Atlanta Brave and Yes Indeed. All are promising; none are completely solid. Surrey Quest benefited from a pace collapse last time and had his wind done afterwards. Yes Indeed is as well raced over fences as some of the seniors in the race. 

If you can put a bit of unprofessionalism last time down to inexperience on his sixth rules start, Atlanta Brave might be the one to side with. He shaped like a stayer in the making at Exeter last time, pricking his ears as he kept on up the short run-in. Kerry Lee could have muddy marathons in mind down the line, as tends to be her wont. The Mandarin can often be the best place to launch that sort of career.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Lydia Richards, trainer of Certainly Red
Last time at Sandown was his first race for a long while on heavy ground and he stayed on well over three miles four furlongs. We know he gets this trip well and I think it will be soft ground by race time as the forecast is for rain all day. I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.

Certainly Red and Marc Goldstein team up once more at NewburyCredit: Mark Cranham

Ben Pauling, trainer of Bowtogreatness and Bangers And Cash
Bowtogreatness was progressive last term, but had a setback in the early part of his season – he knocked a splint – so we've given him time. He'll probably have some exciting targets in the spring, but is a big horse who will benefit from a run. Bangers And Cash was also progressive last season and I ran him in a Pertemps qualifier to get him ready for a handicap chase at Cheltenham last month, but he never travelled and I'm not sure it's his track. With the form he's in, back on a flat track, I hope he'll run a very big race.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Laskalin
He just hasn't quite found his form yet but we're revisiting somewhere he's run well before and hopefully he'll run an encouraging race.  

Toby Lawes, trainer of Surrey Quest
We were absolutely delighted with him at Huntingdon. It was the perfect trip on sensible ground to find out a bit more about him. Perhaps those he beat were more two-and-a-half-mile horses but they went a good strong gallop and he saw the race out very strongly. His wind has never been horrific but you can sometimes hear something so we did the operation, not expecting to find loads of improvement as much as to ensure he doesn't regress. He's a lovely horse and he's been working and schooling very well.

Alan King, trainer of Notachance
We decided to come here rather than running in the Welsh National on Wednesday, as we decided a 0-135 was a better option for him nowadays. He's in good form after his comeback at Exeter last month and showed he still has plenty of ability when third in last season's Midlands National, going better than our winner Major Dundee for much of the way.

Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Yes Indeed
He made a bad mistake at Bangor last time and that was the end of the story, but he stayed on well at Carlisle before that and this sort of trip should be fine.

Willy Twiston-Davies, assistant to Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Fantastikas
Our first preference is to run at Haydock. He was much better last time and looks like he's got his mojo back.

Kerry Lee, trainer of Atlanta Brave
There are very few novice options, so we've got to run in open company. I'm looking forward to it, with no major expectations but lots of hope.

Shanty Alley bids to go one better than when second in the Manadrin last yearCredit: Pool

Ben Case, trainer of Shanty Alley
We ended up having to go to Catterick because a couple of other meetings got called off. He ran a nice race and I was happy with him, while he should have improved a bit. We've freshened him up for a race he ran well in last year and hopefully he'll do the same this year.
Reporting by Scott Burton

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