Paul Nicholls runner with big reputation bids to join illustrious roll of honour

2.25 Cheltenham
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) | 3m | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

This 3m novice hurdle for budding stayers has an illustrious roll of honour with subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners Coneygree, Blaklion, Unowhatimeanharry and Kilbricken Storm among the last ten winners and it is a good bet there is another star or two on show.

In terms of reputation they don't come much bigger than Danny Kirwan, who was lauded as the next big thing by trainer Paul Nicholls after winning a bumper at Kempton in 2018, but didn't win another race until breaking his duck over hurdles at Ascot three weeks ago.

Nicholls was first to admit after that race that it has been stop-start with Danny Kirwan and that has hindered his progress but the potential remains, for all he is a chaser for the future.

His tall reputation means he will probably start near favourite, but in terms of form he is no better than fourth best on Racing Post Ratings and has 9lb to find with Ashtown Lad.

The son of Flemensfirth represents the Dan Skelton yard and, while the majority of trainers find their strike-rates decreasing as runners go up in distance, there is no decline for Skelton.

He has an 18 per cent strike-rate with runners over 2m-2m3f and that goes up to 19 per cent over 2m3½f-3m2½f. There should be more to come from Ashtown Lad over staying trips.

John McConnell is another trainer who excels with stayers and he sends Make Good across the Irish Sea. McConnell's strike-rate in Ireland jumps from seven per cent over 2m-2m1f to nine per cent from 2m1½f-2m6f, and peaks at 16 per cent with runners over 2m7f-plus.

Make Good has yet to run over further than 2m½f and is up a mile in trip after his win at Gowran Park, but his trainer's statistics point to him staying the longer distance.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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What they say

Dan Skelton, trainer of Ashtown Lad
Obviously he's looked good winning his last two but also showed strong form to be second on his reappearance. He brings novice and handicap form to the table and has a good shout.

Alan King, trainer of Wynn House
We opted out of Sandown last week as she would not have enjoyed that testing ground, but she is a progressive novice with plenty of quality about her. She has won both her races so far over hurdles, and I've always liked her.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Danny Kirwan
If he gets the trip he should go very well. He won a point-to-point over three miles and won over two and a half last time but three miles around Cheltenham takes plenty of getting. He's got plenty of pace so hopefully he can get this trip.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Took The Lot
We think the step up to three miles will suit and we're hopeful he can run well, but it is a step into the unknown.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

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