L'Homme Presse and Pic D'Orhy set for Sandown showdown in Scilly Isles

Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 2m4f 10y | 5yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Saturday racecards|Big-race tips|Watch In The Know

The Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices' Chase has been a Grade 1 since the current Pattern was initiated in 1990. In the days before Grade 1s proliferated, it felt like something of a poor relation and potentially even a candidate for demotion. However, over the last decade, instead of suffering for there being greater competition, the race has thrived.

The last five winners of the race have posted a Racing Post Rating of 160 or higher. The last winner before that streak began was Bristol De Mai. Two years before him it was Oscar Whisky.

There is admittedly an element of a rising tide lifting all boats. Since 2012, the rolling five-year average RPR of Scilly Isles winners has gone from 156 to 160.6, an increase of 4.6lb. In the same timeframe, the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown has gone from 155.2 to 162.4 (up 7.2lb), while the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Dr PJ Moriarty/Flogas) has gone from 153.8 to 163 (9.2lb). Top novice chasers are being rated at historically high levels.

Although none of the five runners in this year's Scilly Isles have yet hit the 160 barrier, both L'Homme Presse and Pic D'Orhy were up-to-scratch winners of Grade 2 contests last time and it would not be a surprise if both could breach the 160 mark in this race.

You would have to suggest that L'Homme Presse is already there. He ran to 159 in winning the Dipper on New Year's Day and did so smoothly, leaving everything else ten lengths or more behind without Charlie Deutsch getting serious.

Where L'Homme Presse really impresses is with his jumping. At Cheltenham he was accurate and nimble, which is normally a backhanded compliment towards smaller horses but L'Homme Presse has not been at all daunted by the more strapping types he has been slapping down.

If there is any concern, it is a marked tendency for L'Homme Presse to jump to his left. It is not expected he will struggle in clearing Sandown's fences, although it would be reasonable to consider how much ground he might lose in running down them.

There is a tactical consideration between L'Homme Presse and Pic D'Orhy, who also tends to go from the front. Whether or not Harry Cobden chooses to take on Deutsch is to be seen, although you can bet he will aim to be on his inside.

Pic D'Orhy: parallels with the same connections' CyrnameCredit: Edward Whitaker

The Pic D'Orhy of 2021-22 is the ebullient, occasionally brilliant novice chaser many, including this writer, expected to see in 2020-21. Disregard last year's abortive campaign and there are plenty of parallels with the same connections' Cyrname, who also tended to live on his nerves as a novice and finished second to Terrefort in this race in 2018.

Pic D'Orhy has more of a hurdles pedigree than Cyrname, having won the 2020 Betfair Hurdle, and has looked an accomplished jumper of fences this season. His sole blip, a fall four out when looking set to win a Grade 2 at Newbury in November, was at least partly because he was travelling so fast off the final bend. The only concern at Sandown is that the volume of fences may try his patience.

It would be a surprise if the other three play any significant part. Mister Coffey is nominally the likeliest, but this horse's reputation has always preceded him. He looked a reluctant chaser to begin with and even an ostensibly more promising effort last time is flattering. When second to Jacamar on Boxing Day off a mark of 137, he was probably only fourth best as the pair immediately behind him compromised one another's chances by pressing on far enough out. He would likely need the same to happen again to land an up-to-scratch running of a long-standing, belatedly up-and-coming Grade 1.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Hobson glad to have 'Saturday horse' for the big occasion

As Venetia Williams, trainer of odds-on favourite L’Homme Presse, says: “Grade 1s are not given away.”

The Scilly Isles may look a match on paper between L’Homme Presse and the Paul Nicholls-trained Pic D’Orhy, but races are not won on paper.

L’Homme Presse disappointed on his previous start at Sandown, finishing sixth of 12 in a handicap hurdle, while several of Nicholls’ horses have performed below expectations over the past fortnight.

Richard Hobson, trainer of outsider Fugitif, doesn’t expect his seven-year-old to upset the big two but is following that old maxim of ‘you’ve got to be in it to win it’.

Lightly raced Fugitif, winner of two of his three starts over fences, is 20lb inferior to Pic D’Orhy on official ratings, but is getting better with each outing and possesses the physical scope to continue his rapid progression. In the longer term, he could be quite exciting.

“He’s a very nice young horse and I’m thrilled he’s developing into a Saturday afternoon horse,” Hobson said. “He lacks experience, but there were very few entries for this race and nice prize-money on offer so we thought we’d give it a go.

“He’s very talented and will make up into a nice three-mile chaser next year. He’s far from the finished article.

“He’s over 17 hands and needs time both physically and mentally. The step up in trip will help him. He’s all about rhythm. I’m just hoping he meets those Railway fences on a good stride.”

Hobson, who has booked Nick Scholfield for the ride, said: “I don’t expect Fugitif to get anywhere near the first two in the betting, but you never know, it’s racing. I’m hoping for some prize-money.”

What they say

Venetia Williams, trainer of L’Homme Presse
He needs to step up again. He has a lot more to do this time. I hope he runs a good race. He’s favourite for the race, but Grade 1s are not given away. We’ll have to see how he gets on in this company.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Mister Coffey
He’s had only two starts over fences, and I admit we’re throwing him in a bit deep here; after all, he is a maiden over fences. However, he jumps well, and is a decent horse who looks capable of going places in the spring. We’ll find out a lot more about him.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Pic D’Orhy
He hasn't been the most straightforward to get his jumping together but he did jump well at Ascot last time. He may have learned from Newbury [where he fell in November when looking the likely winner]. He'll love the ground. Normal, testing ground wouldn't have suited him. It'll be an interesting race. If he jumps well, he must have a good chance. He's such a big horse, he's needed all of this time to fill his frame out and mature. He was always going to be a better horse as he got older.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read all of Saturday's previews:

3.15 Leopardstown: Irish Gold Cup: key quotes and analysis as Frodon, Kemboy and Minella Indo clash

Asterion Forlonge: is he a maverick or simply misunderstood

1.05 Leopardstown: Hollow Games has most to fear from fast-improving stablemate Minella Crooner

1.35 Leopardstown: Fil Dor bids to cement Triumph hopes but Vauban 'the one to beat', says Elliott

2.10 Leopardstown: Blue Lord bids to fill void left by Ferny Hollow for Mullins in Irish Arkle

2.30 Wetherby: Lucinda Russell looks for 'confidence booster' to put Ahoy Senor back on track

3.30 Sandown: Could course specialists prove the key to a race with a rich history

3.45 Musselburgh: Questions over ground and jumping - who can come up with the winning answer?