'I don't have him in the Arkle picture' - just how good is Third Time Lucki?

Saturday: 1.40 CheltenhamFrom The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

This race revolves around one horse because Third Time Lucki was wildly impressive when winning on his chase debut over course and distance and a reproduction of that form will probably be good enough for him to follow up in a race that lacks strength in depth.

The wider question about Third Time Lucki is: just how good is he and how high can he go?

He won unchallenged by a wide margin last month and, given he was unopposed, it's tough to measure his potential. Here is where times can help us place the merit of his performance.

I tend to use Topspeed and Raceform speed figures when evaluating times and, on this occasion, I'm going to favour Raceform's figure of 112 over a moderate Topspeed of 96.

Third Time Lucki has a career-high Topspeed figure of 142 over hurdles, which is the highest of the four runners in any discipline, so we know he is capable of bettering 96. Furthermore, the Raceform figure is in line with what I think the performance is worth, judging on visuals.

A Raceform speed figure of 112 places Third Time Lucki just below the Grade 3 standard. That’s not to say he can't improve, but I reckon a few people got carried away by the ease with which he won last time and I don't have him in the Arkle picture at this stage.

While I stick by my assertion that Third Time Lucki is no better than a Grade 3 horse, he should still win this Grade 2 because it isn't a proper Grade 2. It's a British Grade 2 and they typically feature few runners and don't take much winning. Just look at last week's Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices' Chase at Wincanton won by Captain Tom Cat, where only three ran.

Captain Tom Cat isn't a Grade 2 horse and neither is runner-up Mick Pastor, but both run in their second Grade 2 in the space of a week and credit to trainers Richard Newland and Paul Nicholls for that. Sebastopol, no better than a handicap hurdler, completes a weak field.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Third Time Lucki seeks to build on eyecatching debut

Our eyes are not always as trustworthy as we would like them to be. In the Bible, for example, Jesus tells his followers to gouge out their right eye if it causes them to sin as it is better to have one good eye than two that lead you astray.

While widespread eye gouging is probably a step too far for punters at Cheltenham to consider, those looking at the four-runner Grade 2 event will need to decide whether the substance of Third Time Lucki's winning chasing debut matches the visual impression and hype it created.

His price for the Sporting Life Arkle Novices' Chase collapsed to 14-1 (from 50) in the aftermath of a performance in which he jumped impeccably and eased to an eight-and-a-half length success. However, that still leaves him behind Appreciate It, Ferny Hollow and Bob Olinger in the market.

Nevertheless he will likely go off a short-priced favourite on Saturday to make it two wins from as many starts over fences, with the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown next month the next stopping point if all goes to plan.

Trainer Dan Skelton has certainly not seen anything to put him off Third Time Lucki's chances since his win last month, and he said: "Third Time Lucki is in good form and jumped well when we schooled him on Friday morning. We were always coming back here after the October meeting and there's no negatives for him."

Such is the focus on Third Time Lucki, it might be overlooked he is taking on the first and second from the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices' Chase at Wincanton last weekend.

Captain Tom Cat: carries 5lb penalty for Wincanton win last weekendCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Captain Tom Cat came out on top in that race from Mick Pastor by two and a quarter lengths, but consequently carries a 5lb penalty.

His trainer Richard Newland said: "It's a gamble going again so quickly as that race was the plan last week. However, he wants good ground and he'll probably go for a break soon, so we're giving him the chance to get some experience over the Cheltenham fences.

"We're up against it on bare figures, so he will need to be at his best again and will probably need the others to underperform a bit."

The impression Third Time Lucki left on Paul Nicholls means the champion trainer thinks he is the most likely winner too, but he said of Mick Pastor: "It's a quick run back after last week but he needs to go left-handed and two miles is more to his liking than two and a half, even though he ran well at Wincanton.

"Dan's horse will be hard to beat, but while the ground is decent it's the right race to run him in."
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Saturday's race previews:

12.00 Punchestown: all eyes on exciting Bob Olinger as Ballymore winner makes chase debut

12.30 Cheltenham: is Magistrato Paul Nicholls' next juvenile star? Graeme Rodway gives his view

12.38 Punchestown: Arkle clues on offer as Cape Gentleman bids to maintain unbeaten chase record

2.15 Cheltenham: 'I couldn't be happier with him' – key trainer quotes for the Paddy Power

2.50 Cheltenham: is there a Mrs Milner lurking? Festival clues on offer again for Listed contest

3.25 Cheltenham: Murphy and Skelton hotpots all the rage but dangers lurk in tough handicap

3.40 Lingfield: how do Group 1 winners fare on the all-weather? Here's the definitive answer

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