'I've had this race in mind for a while' - key quotes and analysis for the Kim Muir

Mr Incredible, a quirky hold-up horse, is absolutely the wrong type for a Cheltenham handicap chase. That would be a firmer assertion were it not for the memory of Mount Ida in the Kim Muir two years ago, when that horse was all but pulled up after half a circuit but rallied to become the only winning favourite in the last decade.

Somewhat ironically, Mount Ida won the running of the Kim Muir which featured professional jockeys. When there are pace collapses at Cheltenham to allow in the patiently ridden sorts, they are often in amateur riders' races when the jockeys' eagerness gets the better of them.

So Mr Incredible might have more of a chance here than he would have in the Ultima, but he is still a hostage to both fortune and his own whims. The percentage call is still to err towards prominent racers, and not to be scared of big prices given this race's recent history.

That would keep morning favourite Stumptown on the shortlist and he would be hard to kick off given how visually impressive he was at Sandown last month. Also likely to be up with the pace is Anightinlambourn and Dr Kananga, who would both be on a personal shortlist for an each-way bet in the race.

Which rises to the top may depend on how the New course rides on its first day in use at this year's Cheltenham Festival. Anightinlambourn has summer form and signed off after winning on good at the November meeting. Conversely, Dr Kananga did his improving last season in deep ground. He has some attractive form including a thumping win at Sandown and a second to Eva's Oskar, who has since risen 9lb in the weights while Dr Kananga is on the same mark.

The hope is that softer ground persists into Thursday, as deep down Dr Kananga is the one I would like to back. Plus the softer the ground, the more likely horses ridden out the back like Mr Incredible will stay there.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Always up to defying the odds

Never let a big price put you off a Cheltenham Festival runner trained by Venetia Williams, particularly in this race.

The woman who landed the Grand National with 100-1 shot Mon Mome in 2009 has had eight winners at this meeting and they include horses starting at 50-1, 40-1 and 33-1 (twice).

Most recent of those was the 40-1 chance Chambard, who took this race under Lucy Turner last year, when stablemate Didero Vallis was third at 66-1, while Cloudy Glen finished second at 33-1 12 months earlier.

Chambard misses out this year as he had to be withdrawn on the eve of the race with an abscess. However, his trainer had Farinet and Fontaine Collonges make the cut at declaration time, both winners first time out this season who have failed to add to their tally since.

"Fontaine Collonges would appreciate soft ground, if that's what we get on Thursday, and Farinet has plenty of weight and it will be tough but he deserves that mark and soft ground will also be helpful for him," Williams said.

The trainer's team doubled after declarations as the reserves Didero Vallis and Coo Star Sivola earned places following withdrawals.

None of the Williams quartet has figured at all prominently in the ante-post betting and each could start at decent odds today. But you are not going to be deterred by that, are you?

Out to Stump the bookmakers

Those who prefer to concentrate on the top of the market will be all over Stumptown, who has been favourite for this race ever since the weights came out.

That is thanks to the markedly improved form he has shown on his last two starts, on either side of the Irish Sea.

Stumptown: on the way to winning at Sandown last month Credit: Mark Cranham

He jumped much better than previously when easily winning a 2m5½f handicap chase at Thurles in January. He then came across to land a 3m contest at Sandown just as emphatically.

Stumptown is another 8lb higher in the weights this time but the market support suggests that is not expected to stop him from competing a hat-trick here.

Trainer Gavin Cromwell said: "He's in good form but a little bit of nicer ground would be preferred. He's coming into the race off a career high mark but he's in good nick and we would be hoping for a big run from him.

"The extra two furlongs shouldn’t be a problem as he stays very well. We’ve a great man on board in Barry O'Neill and he is worth an extra few pounds in these races."

What they say

Chris Gordon, trainer of Annual Invictus
He's in good form and he's won twice at Cheltenham but my one worry is that he's a better horse on better ground.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Beauport
I hope he could be well in. He's in good form and he likes softer ground. He was very good at Carlisle and although he hasn't been so good since, I hope he'll bounce back.

Henry Daly, trainer of Rapper
Putting cheekpieces on worked well on New Year's day and we're trying visors now. The New Course will suit him and fingers crossed he should run well.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Dunboyne, Ballykeel, Defi Bleu and Punitive
Dunboyne was just touched off in the Thyestes and a repeat of that should put him right in the mix. Ballykeel won nicely at Faryhouse and jumps very well. Defi Bleu bounced back to form last time and Punitive is a solid stayer who should go well.

Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Coeur Serein
I hope he has a sporting each-way chance if he gets around.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Slipway and Anightinlambourn
They'd prefer better ground and Slipway could be a suspect runner if they get a lot of rain. Jack Andrews gets on very well with Anightinlambourn, who's in good order — I hope she'll be able to find her rhythm up the hill.

Henry De Bromhead, trainer of Royal Thief
He won well at Punchestown and the plan was always to come here. It was very soft at Punchestown and Patrick Mullins navigated such a good route on him to find nicer ground, because that's what he needed. It was a super ride and if the ground is nicer here I think he would prefer it.

Ben Clarke, trainer of Dr Kananga
I'm pretty sweet on him. The ground was too quick for him in the Becher Chase. He had a good blowout at Haydock with this race in mind and taking into account Darren Andrews' claim, he's effectively 10lb lower than his mark at Aintree.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Emir Sacree
He ran a really good race at Sandown last time and I've sort of had this race in my mind for him for a while. I think it could really suit him, he'll stay the trip and he loves soft ground.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Captain Cattistock
He'll run if they don't have any more rain. He's a two-time course winner and won the Edinburgh National. He's in great form and if he does line up, he'll give a good account of himself.

Sam Curling, trainer of Angels Dawn
She was running a lovely race at Punchestown and was jumping great but made a mistake two out when looking like running a big race. She showed a good attitude to win at Down Royal before and Ballykeel gave the form a nice boost. I think she will find the track no problem, she will love the hill and is a very well-balanced horse. She likes a bit of cut in the ground.
Reporting by David Carr

Thursday previews:

1.30 Cheltenham: Can Mighty Potter live up to the hype for Gordon Elliott in red-hot Turners?    

2.10 Cheltenham: 'I'll be very disappointed if he's not in the first four' - analysis and quotes for the Pertemps Final    

2.50 Cheltenham: The British banker? Shishkin 'in very good shape' as he bids for Cheltenham redemption    

3.30 Cheltenham: 'You'd have to be delighted with everything he's done' - top trainers on a star-studded Stayers' Hurdle    

4.10 Cheltenham: 'His lack of experience is a worry' - can Emmet Mullins and JP McManus hotpot justify favouritism?    

4.50 Cheltenham: 'We've taken the easier option' - can the classy Luccia maintain her unbeaten record?    

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