'I've had my eye on this for a while' - can Henderson's long-term target pay off for Balco Coastal?

While on recent history this Grade 2 might have been more accurately called the Future Top Handicapper Novices' Chase, this year has a better-than-average chance of bucking the trend.

For a start, a field of seven is unusually high. Five has been typical over the last decade. Additionally, winners of the race in that time have had an average pre-race rating of 154 on Racing Post Ratings. Two of this year's seven have already beaten that and most of the others are within striking distance.

Of those prominent in the betting and on the ratings, only one came out of the Cheltenham Festival with their reputation enhanced. Unexpected Party missed the cut for the Grand Annual, a more suitable race in all likelihood, but ran well in the Turners to finish fifth behind Stage Star. 

There is a chance that the steadily run race at Cheltenham serves to overestimate both his stamina for this trip and his ability. Efforts earlier in the season from Balco Coastal, Thunder Rock and even Datsalrightgino have a more solid look.

Thunder Rock could be the key horse. He might well be Balco Coastal's equal in terms of talent. Jumping and tactics separated them more than ability when they filled the minor places behind Gerri Colombe in the Scilly Isles. The caveat is that he moved up to three miles at Cheltenham primarily to help his jumping. That is the worry with him dropping back now, although Ayr is at least a somewhat easier jumping test than Sandown or Cheltenham.

Finally, Telmesomethinggirl has been fairly slow to start over fences, but the combination of her hurdles form, plus her weight-for-sex allowance, makes her hard to disregard.

Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Balco Coastal
He's been mostly consistent this year and his form is working out very well. When you take the form of his second to Gerri Colombe at Sandown it looks very strong and, despite where he finished, I thought he ran an okay race at Cheltenham. I've had my eye on this race for a while with him.

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Datsalrightgino
He's in good order. He's had a very good season, although he's been the bridesmaid more often than not. He disappointed at the festival, but the ground went against him and he didn't particularly enjoy the large field so Gavin [Sheehan] just minded him. He's back on a better surface and in a smaller field, so should have a good chance.

Thunder Rock: dropping back in tripCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Olly Murphy, trainer of Thunder Rock
He's had a hard year, it's been a very busy season for him and he didn't quite stay at Cheltenham last time. He does have to reverse Sandown form with Balco Coastal, but we think he's got a big engine. Max [McNeill] loves the meeting so we've targeted him here and he looks to have a chance.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Unexpected Party
He ran a cracker in the Turners at Cheltenham and on his numbers he's in there and this looks like a competitive running of the race as I've seen for a long time. Usually it can really cut up, but this looks really good. He won't go off favourite, but you can chuck him into the mix.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Read the rest of Saturday's previews:

2.05 Newbury: 'There wouldn’t be much between her and Mammas Girl' - Amo Racing out to land another Guineas trial   

2.25 Ayr: 'We've kept her back for this and we're very hopeful' - key quotes for the Scottish Champion Hurdle   

2.40 Newbury: 'He's grown and strengthened' - can Chaldean emulate his sire Frankel and cement his 2,000 Guineas claims?   

3.15 Newbury: Can Irish Lincoln winner Lattam complete a unique spring double? All the key info for the Spring Cup   

3.35 Ayr: 'He has a good future' - can Jonjo O'Neill add the Scottish National to his CV with Monbeg Genius?  

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