It's a form student's nightmare – but I'm hoping the Cesarewitch will set up perfectly for a most welcome winner

I don’t say it lightly, but this race has become a total nightmare for anyone who considers themselves a serious analyst in recent years because Flat form has no bearing on the result. 

Instead it has become a race that is regularly won by plot jobs who have often been only sparingly seen on the Flat and come into the race unexposed to the handicapper as a result.

Nine of the last ten winners had no more than three Flat runs that season and eight had run over either hurdles or fences in the previous jumps campaign, so it has turned into a bit of a guessing game about which jumper might be best equipped to transfer their form to the Flat.