'It's a clash we've been waiting on for ages' - get ready for novice thriller

Betway Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 4yo+ | 3m1f | ITV/RTV

The two main concerns over small-field races do not apply here. Quality is one and it is quickly headed off not just by the billing of the runners but by their achievements.

On RPRs both L'Homme Presse and Bravemansgame have already met the ten-year average of the winning performance for this race, which in three of its last five runnings has been won by a horse who was placed in the following spring's Gold Cup.

The other issue can be tactics. Small fields make for muddling races but that is unlikely to be the case when 'made all' adorns the in-running comments for six of the runners' 18 combined starts over fences.

Put another way, there are few excuses for this race not delivering on its rich promise. Which is just as well, because considering these horses are all novice chasers it's pretty remarkable just how many scores there are to settle.

The rivalry between Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame is almost exactly a year old. They were first and second respectively in last year's Sefton Novices' Hurdle, which at the time was a major shock as Ahoy Senor had only a maiden hurdle win behind him.

Fences have added another dimension and they have swung the balance back in favour of Bravemansgame, who has been an excellent jumper more or less from day one.

Ahoy Senor has been a relatively slow learner and after five starts the concern is that his bad habits could be here to stay to an extent.

Last time, in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham won by L'Homme Presse, Ahoy Senor made a mistake every time the pressure was on. That he was still able to finish second underlines his monstrous talent.

It was not jumping that beat him when Bravemansgame took his measure in the Kauto Star over Christmas. That was a steadily run race and speed up the straight won the day. A similar scenario would offer Bravemansgame his best chance of maintaining an unbeaten record over fences.

It is felt that Brown Advisory winner L'Homme Presse is the rightful favourite for this race, simply because he lacks any weak points.

Ahoy Senor's jumping has already been mentioned and Bravemansgame will probably always be at his best over 3m when the emphasis is on speed. L'Homme Presse, however, won the 2m4f Scilly Isles then ran right through the line over 3m at Cheltenham last time.

Any potential lingering effects from the Brown Advisory are the only foreseeable barrier to his putting up another top-class performance. If he delivers that, then it's up to his rivals to show the full extent of their undoubted talents to beat him.

That even extends to outsider Fury Road, who went off second-favourite for last year's Stayers' Hurdle and has won a Grade 1 novice chase in Ireland this season.

Let's hope that all four make it to the third-last fence and deliver the race fans want to see.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

L'Homme Presse back for more, ground permitting

L'Homme Presse has provided one of the best stories of this jumps season in Britain as he has thrillingly fulfilled the promise co-owner Andy Edwards saw in him before spending more than two years on the sidelines with a leg injury.

The string of ones next to the Venetia Williams-trained seven-year-old barely do justice to the way he has taken to chasing in five starts this season, adding the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham on his first try at three miles to his maiden Grade 1 success in the Scilly Isles at Sandown in February.

His performance at Cheltenham had the layers scrambling for Gold Cup quotes for next season and the initial feeling from Williams, Edwards and his co-owners, Peter and Pat Pink, was that he may have done enough for the year.

L'Homme Presse ridden by Charlie Deutsch wins the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham FestivalCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

But the horse's wellbeing and the prospect of some version of soft appearing in the going description have persuaded connections to race again this season, although a final walk of the course on Friday morning will be required before L'Homme Presse gets the green light

Williams said: "He had an easy ten days afterwards. He's just been cantering away since and he's freshened up since then. It will be a different kind of test in a small but very select field. Each of them has a chance."

In terms of the ground, Williams added: "The wind has been the worry and with these April showers, you don't know where they're going to land. They've had disappointingly little rain and lots of wind, but hopefully there will be some more rain."

Conditions to suit Bravemansgame after Cheltenham downpour

Paul Nicholls has always known that making early comparisons with the mighty Denman would make Bravemansgame the target for intense scrutiny, and it is surely not one he made lightly.

Like his Gold Cup and dual Hennessy hero, Bravemansgame was beaten in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in a season that was always marking time before he went chasing.

Bravemansgame had the legs of Ahoy Senor at Kempton on Boxing DayCredit: Edward Whitaker

So far his performances have been some of the highwater marks in Nicholls' season, with a thoroughly professional display in beating Ahoy Senor in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Chase as Kempton followed by a decent weight-carrying performance at Newbury when not every horse in the yard was firing.

Unfortunately, the Denman script met a fork in the road when heavy rain led Nicholls to scratch him from the Brown Advisory, leaving L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor to fight it out.

"He seems really well and I'm very happy with him," said Nicholls. "It's a good race, a really interesting race, but we're happy. I think the flat track and the trip will be perfect for him."

Ahoy Senor returns to happy hunting ground

Given that Peter Scudamore told the Racing Post on the eve of last season's Sefton Novices' Hurdle that Ahoy Senor was arguably the most talented horse he and trainer Lucinda Russell had ever had in the yard, a starting price of 66-1 at this meeting last year now looks faintly ridiculous.

Since then he has run well in defeat to both Bravemansgame at Kempton – a track arguably too sharp for him – and most recently when chasing home L'Homme Presse in an attritional Brown Advisory.

Ahoy Senor and Derek Fox on their way to success in the Grade 2 Towton Novices' Chase at WetherbyCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

"We were delighted with him at Cheltenham," said Russell. "Maybe the ground was a little bit soft for him, and making a mistake at a crucial time didn't help, but he learned loads and we were so pleased with him.

"I just think it's going to be a phenomenal race and it's a clash we've been waiting on for ages. For us the pressure's off but, having said that, I think Aintree will bring out the best in him and he's definitely been in fantastic form since Cheltenham."

If many racing fans are making this the race of the week away from the National, then Russell is in full agreement.

She said: "We're in the entertainment business and I think this looks a fantastic race. I hope everyone who watches it enjoys it."

Weather could go against Fury Road

Such are the reputations of the three leading British novices that bookmakers have felt able to take a chance with Fury Road, who was last seen when left 55 lengths in the wake of Galopin Des Champs at the Dublin Racing Festival over an extended 2m5f.

Before that, he took the step up to three miles well when winning the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at the track's Christmas meeting, although he might be a dual winner at the highest level but for a do-or-die ride from Denis O'Regan on Beacon Edge in the Drinmore.

Eddie O'Leary of owners Gigginstown House Stud issued a note of caution, though, saying: "Every drop of rain that falls will hinder Fury Road's chance. He's a smart horse but he needs nice ground."

Friday's Aintree previews:

2.20 Aintree: Jonbon 'the one to beat' as Nicky Henderson bids for record sixth Top Novices'

3.30 Aintree: Joseph O'Brien bullish as Fakir D'Oudairies bids for back-to-back Marsh Chases

4.05 Aintree: Can Mister Coffey pay off a 'mad idea'? Expert analysis and quotes on the Topham

4.40: Can Banbridge follow recent Martin Pipe winners and prove another Grade 1 horse?

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