'It was an easy decision to run Ballyburn here' - this year's talking horse bids to walk the walk

This famous race has been won by stars like Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Simonsig, The New One and Faugheen, but in recent years it has become less competitive and dominated by favourites. Four of the last six have gone to the market leaders and three went off odds-on.

It seems to have become the go-to race for the banker of the week in the novice division and that is evident again this year as the talking horse of the festival, Ballyburn, appears to have scared off the opposition. Only three trainers have accepted the opportunity to take him on.

That goes to show how bare the cupboard is outside the Willie Mullins yard as the two biggest dangers to Ballyburn are also stabled at Closutton and none of the three runners who aren’t is in single-figure odds.

The lack of any strength in depth in recent seasons doesn’t appear to have helped the race’s winners going forward, though. Samcro (2018, 8-11), Envoi Allen (2020, 4-7), Bob Olinger (2021, 6-4), Sir Gerhard (2022, 8-11) and Impaire Et Passe (last year, 5-2) were all hailed as outstanding winners who would go on to be champions in the future, but none of them did.

Will Ballyburn go the same way or is he the real deal? You have to go back ten years to find Faugheen, the last proper champion to win this race, so recent history isn’t on the latest hotpot's side.

And maybe he won’t even win. Everyone seems to think he is past the post, but he suffered defeat against Firefox on his hurdles debut at Fairyhouse, so clearly isn’t unbeatable.

Ballyburn: had Supreme winner Slade Steel behind at the Dublin Racing FestivalCredit: Alan Crowhurst

It’s probably folly to think he won’t get the job done, especially given the best of the British like Gidleigh Park and Captain Teague have been sent elsewhere, so how does Ballyburn compare with the other recent winners on Racing Post and Topspeed ratings?

Ballyburn has a best Topspeed of 127 and an RPR of 157, so for a bit of fun let’s add them together for a total of 284 and compare that to the other recent winners’ figures before they competed here. The results put Ballyburn right in the middle.

Samcro (127, 155) comes out at 282, Envoi Allen (130, 156) 286, Bob Olinger (132, 152) 284, Sir Gerhard (125, 157) 282 and Impaire Et Passe (114, 149) 263.

That suggests Ballyburn is good enough to win an average recent running of this race, but that he isn’t significantly better than the majority of those five winners bar Impaire Et Passe. If the ratings are right he will do the business but he is no superstar yet.

Mercurey is the biggest danger to Ballyburn judging on our mathematics, with a combined Topspeed and RPR of 271 for his victory in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown. However, the market prefers two other Mullins runners, Ile Atlantique and Predators Gold.

From a British perspective, Jingko Blue leads the way ahead of Handstands and you can write off the Harriet Dickin-trained outsider, The Grey Man. If this race stays at home then it bodes well for the Brits for the rest of the week, particularly in the Albert Bartlett, where Gidleigh Park and Captain Teague both go. But in reality it probably won’t happen.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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By Tom Park, audience editor

Keep an eye out for bet365's Super Boost at 10am. They boosted State Man to even-money on Tuesday and Ballyburn might be a candidate for that kind of treatment here. I fully expect Ballyburn to get the job done in the opener but he is short enough to be getting involved as a single. bet365 also offer Best Odds Guaranteed and Price Promise, meaning they won't be beaten on price by any of their main competitors, which is a handy concession should you be looking to place a multiple.

William Hill are offering customers a free £5 bet on each day of Cheltenham, while Paddy Power are also offering customers a free bet each day.

RP Recommends: bet365

Ballyburn leads powerful Mullins quintet

Ballyburn, likely to be the cornerstone of many Willie Mullins accumulators this week, bids to give Ireland's master trainer a record-extending seventh win in this Grade 1 and his third in a row.

Widely hailed as the best novice hurdler in training, Ballyburn would have started odds-on had he gone for Tuesday's Supreme Novices' Hurdle but Mullins has opted for the Gallagher over an extra four and a half furlongs.

A point-to-point and dual bumper winner, Ballyburn suffered the only defeat of his career behind Firefox on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse in December but won his next start by 25 lengths before turning a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival into a procession.

Proven on soft and heavy ground and rated 7lb superior to closest rival Predators Gold on official figures, he does not seem to have even the smallest chink in his armour.

"Once we had our Supreme runners sorted it was an easy decision to run Ballyburn here," said Mullins. "We felt with his pedigree he would have no problem with this trip. He has settled in well at the track and should take some beating. I've been very happy with everything he's done since the Dublin Racing Festival."

Ile Atlantique (right) on his way to a close second behind Readin Tommy Wrong in the Grade 1 Lawlor's of Naas Novice HurdleCredit: Patrick McCann

Even if Ballyburn were to underperform, the market suggests Mullins will still be on the podium.

Ile Atlantique is next in the betting having failed by just a neck to win the Grade 1 Lawlor's of Naas in January and has a profile heading on an upward trajectory.

"Ile Atlantique has had this race as his target all season," Mullins added. "He was unlucky when nabbed close home by Readin Tommy Wrong at Naas last time. With the likely pace here, we can change tactics and he'll be a force to be reckoned with. We wouldn’t put anyone off backing him."

Dual Grade 1 runner-up Predators Gold is another live contender for Mullins, whose team is completed by maiden hurdle winners Jimmy Du Seuil and Mercurey.

"Predators Gold found two and three-quarter miles too far at Leopardstown and, if he settles over this shorter trip, he could be good each-way value," said Mullins. "Jimmy Du Seuil will be suited by this race. His jumping is good but not quick enough for the Supreme. He'll stay the trip and we feel he hasn't shown his true ability yet.

"Mercurey was very impressive at Punchestown, where he travelled well throughout. He'll benefit from this longer trip and should run a big race."

Pauling excited about Handstands

Ben Pauling was the last trainer based in Britain to win this race when successful with Willoughby Court in 2017 and he leads a threadbare resistance from the home team this year with Handstands.

Unbeaten in a point-to-point and three runs over hurdles, Handstands took the notable scalp of Grade 1 winner Jango Baie at Huntingdon last time. While his official rating of 136 gives him plenty to find with the Mullins protagonists, it is impossible to predict where the ceiling of his ability might be.

Handstands beats Jango Baie in the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle at HuntingdonCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

"We're thrilled with him going into it," said Pauling, a three-time festival winner. "He's been impressive this season and won the Sidney Banks very well last time. He seems to do everything with ease and we're excited about him."

After much deliberation, Pauling and owner Tim Radford have chosen to stick with Harry Cobden in the saddle after he stepped in for Ben Jones at Huntingdon.

"It wasn't an easy decision but I understand why the owners were so keen to keep Harry on when he's available because he won the Sidney Banks and he's riding out of his skin," Pauling added.

Henderson: Jingko Blue deserves his chance

Nicky Henderson teamed up with Ballyburn's joint-owner Ronnie Bartlett to win the Gallagher with Simonsig in 2012 but they will be in opposition on this occasion as the Lambourn trainer pitches Jingko Blue into Graded company for the first time.

An emphatic winner of a Sandown handicap off an official rating of 124, Jingko Blue was raised 16lb for that victory.

Jingko Blue jumps the final flight to win at Sandown last timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

"It's a big jump in class from a novice handicap to a Grade 1 but it was a visually impressive win last time and he deserves to take his chance," said Henderson. "I don't know what he beat at Sandown but it looked competitive on paper, even if he was well clear at the finish. It was a very good performance and he's in good form."

The Grey Man completes the line-up and will be a first runner at the Cheltenham Festival for trainer Harriet Dickin, who insists he will not be disgraced despite his three-figure price.

"We're very excited," said Dickin, who runs the family's training operation. "It's his first time beyond two miles and I think he's crying out for the step up in trip. The track will suit and, with just eight runners, it's not going to be the Charge of the Light Brigade.

"His mother was a very good stayer in heavy ground who Dad trained and The Grey Man was virtually born in the yard, so there's not really a more appropriate horse to do it with. He might come last but he won't disgrace himself and we're really looking forward to it."
Reporting by Lewis Porteous

Read our Wednesday previews:

2.30 Cheltenham: Is stamina a chink in Fact To File's armour or will latest Willie Mullins hotpot justify the hype? 

3.15 Cheltenham: 'He has a real good chance' - top trainers on their Coral Cup contenders 

4.00 Cheltenham: 'He's better than his performance in last season's Arkle' - can Jonbon turn the tables on El Fabiolo in Champion Chase? 

4.50 Cheltenham: 'He jumps and travels like the sort of horse you want for this' - insight and key quotes for the Grand Annual 

5.30 Cheltenham: Can anything break the Irish stranglehold on the Willie Mullins-dominated Champion Bumper? 

Mighty Mullins ready to unleash another merciless battalion on the Cotswolds 

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