'It is ours to lose' - can anything stop the might of Sir Gerhard in Ballymore?

Wednesday: 1.30 CheltenhamBallymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m5f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

There have been more winning favourites in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle than the Supreme and Albert Bartlett combined in the last decade and this season's running lacks the competitiveness of the other two novice hurdles at the meeting.

With an average winning SP of just under 4-1, compared to 7-1 in the Supreme and 18-1 in the Albert Bartlett, siding with short-priced runners has often paid dividends.

Odds-on favourite Sir Gerhard possesses a different profile to the last ten winners in that he has no experience over further than two miles under rules.

He hasn't shaped as if crying out for a step up in trip and intermediate distances are not guaranteed to extract any improvement.

However, Sir Gerhard probably doesn't need to improve on what he has already achieved to oblige. A replication of his Leopardstown performance last time should be enough.

If there is a chink in his armour it is his jumping. He enjoyed an uncontested lead when defeating the reopposing Three Stripe Life in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival by six lengths but jumped erratically.

Inexperience can also be cited as a minor doubt for favourite backers. Yorkhill is the only horse in the last decade to have captured the Ballymore after running only twice over hurdles, but Sir Gerhard achieved more in bumpers than Yorkhill. The racing knowledge he accrued in that sphere alleviates such fears.

A few rivals in opposition have won from the front before and if Sir Gerhard surrenders his unbeaten hurdles record then being pressed for the lead, thus putting his jumping under pressure, will surely be a contributing factor.

Journey With Me made virtually all in the best maiden hurdle of the season over Christmas when accounting for Minella Crooner and Kilcruit and could go forward.

The Henry de Bromhead-trained runner took a backwards step on his next outing at Naas but that race was run at a dawdle.

Although he was workmanlike in obliging at odds of 4-11, we likely haven't seen anywhere near the limit of his ability after just two hurdle starts.

Stage Star follows a tried-and-trusted route for Paul Nicholls and has also made all in the past.

He won a weak Challow impressively enough but his Racing Post Rating of 145 at Newbury was 9lb inferior to Bravemansgame's effort the previous year and 7lb shy of Sir Gerhard's last-time-out effort.

Bravemansgame was subsequently found out in the Ballymore by the Irish, so lightning should strike twice.

The biggest danger to Sir Gerhard may be a horse he has already beaten. Three Stripe Life is 2-0 down against that one but there is hope he can close the gap over this longer trip. He is bred to be better over further and defied inexperience to run a cracker in last season's Champion Bumper.

Whatdeawant has always carried a big reputation and represents joint-owner Sean Mulryan, who sponsors the race.

Willie Mullins' second string beat Ginto in a bumper but the form was reversed when the pair clashed in the Grade 1 Lawlor's of Naas Novice Hurdle, a race Bob Olinger and Envoi Allen landed before capturing the Ballymore.

Whatdeawant was sent off a 2-1 shot at Naas but didn’t have a change of gear and faded into fifth.

Haxo, Hemlock and Scarface are impossible to fancy and the remaining runner, I Am Maximus is only rated 134. The average RPR for a Ballymore winner in the last ten years is 158, so he too has plenty to find.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Sir Gerhard aims to make most of late Mullins switch

Such is the depth of the equine talent he has, trainer Willie Mullins has the ability to flip a race on its head with a single decision.

At the start of the month, the market thought Mullins may decide on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle for Sir Gerhard. At the back end of last week, his owners admitted last year's Champion Bumper winner was more than good enough to win either the Supreme or the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle. The potential rivals held their breath for a decision.

In the end, it was the Ballymore that was selected and Sir Gerhard is set to go off favourite for a race that has been captured by similar hotshots such as Bob Olinger, Envoi Allen and Samcro in the last five years.

The race is the first time Sir Gerhard has tackled a trip markedly more than two miles, so for such a decision to be taken at the biggest meeting of the year shows a high level of confidence in what the seven-year-old is capable of.

Mullins said: "It was always my choice to go to the Ballymore with Sir Gerhard. He's won a point and we know he'll stay, he settles well. He jumped very well the first day, he didn't jump very well last time. I just thought he was made for the Ballymore, so I hope I'm right. He's in great form at home."

Sir Gerhard: had a late switch to the Ballymore from the SupremeCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

It is hard not to be taken with what Sir Gerhard has shown in carrying the Cheveley Park Stud red, white and blue colours to victory in two starts at Leopardstown over hurdles. Even when far from fluent on his most recent start in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle last month, he still romped to a six-length success.

Unlike in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, there were no difficult decisions for jockey Paul Townend to make when it comes to who to ride in Ballymore, despite Haxo and Whatdeawant also being declared by Mullins.

"He's a real live chance," Townend said. "I am not worried about him getting the trip, he’s a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, he made a couple of mistakes at Leopardstown the last day but has schooled well since that."

Speaking in his Ladbrokes blog, he added: "Journey With Me looks a progressive horse for Henry de Bromhead but if everything goes right for Sir Gerhard, it is ours to lose."

De Bromhead and Robcour hoping for Ballymore repeat

It was in this race a year ago that we saw Brian Acheson's pink, white and black silks carried to one of the performances of the meeting when Bob Olinger swatted aside Bravemansgame and his rivals.

The performance was perfect for the media-shy Acheson, whose horses run under the Robcour banner, with the horse doing all the talking in one of the biggest races of the year and rightly gaining all the plaudits for a scintillating display.

Journey With Me: represents last year's winning connectionsCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

The owner is back with another exciting performer this year as the unbeaten Journey With Me lines up and no doubt he will be hoping for a similar performance with the horse taking centre stage.

Trainer Henry de Bromhead, who took Cheltenham by storm last year, including when sending out Bob Olinger to triumph in this race, is hoping that rain arrives at the course before racing begins to boost Journey With Me’s prospects under jockey Rachael Blackmore.

"He's in great form," he said. "He travelled over really well and I'm delighted with how that all went. He's been really professional in all he's done so far and seems to take everything in his stride. We'd appreciate the rain that is forecast for him."

Stripe and Stage primed to shock Sir Gerhard

While taking on Sir Gerhard is a new experience for Journey With Me, Three Stripe Life has already taken him on when finishing second at Leopardstown last time.

However, instead of being put off by the prospect of having to take on Sir Gerhard for a second time, trainer Gordon Elliott is upbeat about the challenge, possibly swayed by the extra distance the two horses are racing over.

Elliott, who has saddled Samcro and Envoi Allen to win the Ballymore in the last four years, said: "He's improving with every run and I thought that was a really good run at Leopardstown last time against Sir Gerhard.

"He obviously meets him again here, but the longer trip is no problem and I think he might be able to give the favourite something to think about."

Seven of the last eight winners of the Ballymore have been trained in Ireland, providing an indication of what faces the British runners seeking victory in this race.

Stage Star: can he do better than Bravemansgame did last year?Credit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

The leading British-trained contender is Stage Star, who landed the Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury last time – the same race picked up by his Paul Nicholls-trained stablemate Bravemansgame prior to finishing third in this race last year.

"We'll see where he stands with regards to the Irish horses but he's done well here this season," Nicholls said. "He's a smart horse who's shown smart form and I'm looking forward to testing him and seeing where he is.

"We thought about running him at Exeter as a prep for this, but the ground was too bad. However, that means we've been able to get him really fresh and well for this, so he's going there in top form."

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer of Haxo and Whatdeawant
Whatdeawant comes here with a good chance. He had a good win and then disappointed, but I think he's back in the sort of form that he needs to be, and this trip will suit. Haxo's had just had the one run for me. It was a good run and I thought I'd bring him over and let him get experience around the track.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of I Am Maximus
He's still quite a big baby and his future as a racehorse is in front of him. He's a lovely horse and a very capable performer as well. He's got good form around Cheltenham too, so that's a plus for his chances.

Joe Tizzard, son and assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of Scarface
He's improved with every run and I thought he travelled really nicely when he was second at Ascot last time. This race will be a good experience for him and I think he'll learn a lot.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Wednesday's Cheltenham Festival previews:

2.10 Cheltenham: star novices Bravemansgame, L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor clash in thriller

2.50 Cheltenham: can The Shunter land the Coral Cup after switching back to hurdles?

3.30 Cheltenham: 'This is going to be the biggest test of Shishkin's life' says Nicky Henderson

4.10 Cheltenham: Tiger Roll bids to bow out on a high back where it all began

4.50 Cheltenham: can Andy Dufresne unlock sky-high potential for Gordon Elliott in Grand Annual?

5.30 Cheltenham: who will be crowned the bumper king? Facile Vega and American Mike face off

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