Is there a 2,000 Guineas winner lurking in the Craven Stakes field?

Trial season is upon us and it is the turn of the colts to underline their Classic credentials in the truest 2,000 Guineas dress rehearsal of all.

That is because the track and mile trip of the Craven is exactly the same as the early season highlight two weeks on Saturday, unlike the seven-furlong Nell Gwyn for fillies at this meeting and the equivalent Guineas trials for colts and fillies at Newbury and Leopardstown.

The dominant force in recent years has been Charlie Appleby. The Godolphin trainer has saddled three of the last four winners and a challenge depleted by the late omission of Naval Power remains ominous with the presence of rightful favourite Mysterious Night. Jockey bookings suggested Mysterious Night was the stable's first string regardless and the form book justifies that notion.

The son of Dark Angel progressed with virtually every start on Racing Post Ratings as a juvenile and his season culminated with a runaway Grade 1 strike at Woodbine on fast ground. Appleby and William Buick are the pre-eminent combination on the Rowley Mile (38 per cent strike-rate in the past five years) and the pair were 2-3 on the opening day of the Craven meeting.

That Mysterious Night is the chosen one among a raft of regally bred Appleby-trained colts is likely significant, although he could make it as a sprinter based on his pedigree and a mile with ease in the surface will provide a new challenge.

The market has latched on to John and Thady Gosden's once-raced winner Mostabshir, another son of Dark Angel, as Mysterious Night's greatest threat. A lack of experience is an obvious concern, but recent Craven scorers Eminent (2017) and Skardu (2019) captured this on their second outing.

Mostabshir's breeding speaks for itself as he is a half-brother to Mostahdaf and Nazeef, and his easy debut success at Kempton in November was franked by the well-beaten fifth beating a couple of highly regarded sorts at Wolverhampton this month.

This race lacks an obvious front-runner and perhaps speed may be examined more than it often is on the Rowley Mile. That could suit the two sons of Dark Angel, but a modest pace will likely be to the detriment of Dancing Magic and the stoutly bred The Foxes, the sole course-and-distance winner in the field.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

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Nothing Mysterious about Appleby's record

Some statistics are easier to explain than others and here is one of the most straightforward of the lot.

Why has Charlie Appleby so dominated the Craven Stakes of late, with three winners since 2018 from just five runners (one of whom finished second to a stablemate) in a race in which no other Godolphin trainer has even had a placed runner?

Simply, he runs good horses in it. Very good ones.

Masar, his first runner in 2018, went on to win the Derby. Master Of The Seas followed success here in 2021 by being beaten just a short head in the 2,000 Guineas and has since scored in Group 2 company. Last year's winner Native Trail also took second in the Newmarket Classic before a clear-cut victory in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

Even Zakouski, who managed only fifth in 2019, struck twice at Group 2 level and was retired the winner of more than £340,000.

Charlie Appleby: saddled the 2022 Craven Stakes winner Native TrailCredit: Edward Whitaker

All of which rather whets the appetite for what this year's candidate, a 2,000 Guineas entry chosen from a yard with an abundance of three-year-old talent, could achieve this season.

Mysterious Night is already proven at a high level, having bolted up by five and three-quarter lengths in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine in Toronto last September.

Appleby said: "He was impressive in Canada last year and I'm pleased to say his preparation has gone well for the Craven, which is the starting point of his three-year-old career."

What they say

Clive Cox, trainer of Ancestral Land
He finished last season with a good effort in the Horris Hill. He's strengthened really well over the winter and has plenty of size and scope. This is a big step but we like him enough to be pleased he's running in one of the trials.

Karl Burke, trainer of Indestructible
He hasn't been with us that long but he's a nice horse. We've had to iron out a couple of little physical things and, although he's working very well, he'll improve for the run. There's plenty of stamina on the dam's side and this looks a better option for him than seven furlongs at Newbury.

Angus Gold, racing manager to Shadwell Estate, owners of Mostabshir
It's a big ask on his second start but he did it well first time and has done everything right in his home work. We need to get on and learn a bit about him. He's in the Guineas – it's unlikely he'll be heading straight there unless he were to win impressively but we have the option there. It's a good place to start and we'll see where he fits in.

Alastair Donald, racing manager to King Power, owners of The Foxes
He looks fantastic and is training well. We suspect the mile may be too sharp for him but this is a perfect prep and he should still run very well. We hope he'll be aimed at the Dante and the Derby. We always thought he was very good and it all came together at the end of last season when he won the Royal Lodge despite not enjoying the slow pace.
Reporting by David Carr

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'This has been the plan for a while and there's lots in her favour' - key quotes for the mares' final at Cheltenham

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'Everyone's very pleased and he goes there with a real chance' - key quotes for the Wood Ditton

Red-hot favourite Creative Force could prove unstoppable for irresistible Appleby and Buick