Is the Cadran a straight duel between Trueshan and Emily Dickinson?
Two high-class stayers who have shown their best form on much softer ground than they are set to encounter here might sound like a recipe for an upset, but there is very little in the recent form of the rivals ranged against Trueshan and Emily Dickinson to suggest this will be anything other than a straight duel.
Alan King has been careful to avoid running Trueshan on fast summer ground throughout his career and, although conditions have quickened up as the week has progressed at Longchamp, there looks like being enough of an autumn cushion to allow the 2021 Cadran winner to give his best in the 2m4f contest.
After King had worried that Trueshan might have been losing a bit of desire at the beginning of the season, the seven-year-old came roaring back with a hard-fought win in the Doncaster Cup.
David Hill, co-owner of Trueshan, said: "The big thing at Doncaster was that he raced with enthusiasm and finished off his race so well. Trueshan has always enjoyed every yard he goes past two miles and so the Cadran is a race we're really looking forward to. Genuine good ground is no problem to him. Firm going is all we would want to avoid."
Aidan O’Brien won his first Cadran last year when the remarkable Kyprios slammed his rivals by 20 lengths despite running right across the vast expanses of Longchamp to the shelter of the stands’ rail.
The O’Brien-trained Emily Dickinson has also shown a marked preference for cut in the ground but that did not prevent this blue-blooded daughter of Dubawi and Irish Oaks winner Chicquita from putting in a huge run to be fourth in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot on good to firm.
With fewer miles in her legs than Trueshan, Emily Dickinson is still relatively unexposed at staying trips and looks one of Frankie Dettori’s best chances of signing off from his love affair with Longchamp on a winning note.
"If the ground had come up soft or heavy at Longchamp, we would have had a strong think about going for the Arc," said O'Brien. "She has good form on good ground, but she's better with ease in the ground.
"On this ground she'll be more comfortable over the Cadran trip rather than the Arc. She ran well in the Gold Cup even though the ground was quick."
Run For Oscar doesn’t have too much to find with the best of the French stayers on the basis of his fifth in the Prix Kergorlay and is reunited with Cristian Demuro. On ratings, however, Charles Byrnes has to conjure another 13lb out of his dual-purpose performer to match a peak-form Trueshan.
Skazino has been supplemented but has looked potentially on the downgrade this year at the age of seven, having finished fourth to Trueshan two years ago.
Separated by just a nose when third and fourth in the Prix Gladiateur at the start of the month, the Czech-trained Verte Liberte and Stephane Wattel's Moon Wolf have yet to tackle this extreme distance.
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