Is Noble Truth the one to beat? Jersey Stakes analysis and insight

Jersey Stakes (Group 3) | 7f | 3yo | ITV/Sky

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have an embarrassment of riches in the three-year-old mile division this year. They have won the 2,000 Guineas, the Irish 2,000 and the St James’s Palace with Coroebus and Native Trail and have a prospective miler here with Noble Truth.

Or is he a prospective sprinter? We will not find out here because he runs over seven furlongs, but given he looks capable of going either up or down in trip he looks ideal for this race at the intermediate distance and Appleby dominated the event last season with similar types.

He saddled Creative Force to beat stablemate Naval Crown a year ago and Creative Force ended up showing his best form over shorter when winning the British Champions Sprint here in October. Naval Crown was dropping in trip after his 2,000 Guineas fourth.

Noble Truth’s only try at a mile ended in a disappointing display in Riyadh in February and he went through the race with a free-going style when winning back at seven at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. Maybe that suggests he will be better over shorter, but only time will tell.

He has been gelded since that last run and that might settle him down. Appleby is 43-202 with runners after the operation since the start of 2014, but a £1 bet on all of them has lost £32.77.

Saeed bin Suroor went 23 runners without a Royal Ascot winner from 2018 to 2020, but he has been back with a bang over the last two seasons. He saddled Real World to win the Royal Hunt Cup last year and has already struck with Dubai Future this year.

Bin Suroor saddles Monaadah, who won on turf on his debut at Meydan in March and is unbeaten in two starts on the all-weather in Britain, including a win at Kempton last time.

Monaadah floated across the sand to give 6lb and a beating to odds-on favourite Audience and there was five lengths back to the third. But that was a weaker race than most of his rivals contested last time and horses who ran on sand on their last start often struggle in this event.

Since the start of 2010 there have been 14 runners in the Jersey who contested an all-weather race on their latest start and none finished better than fifth. Those 14 beat just 34 per cent of their rivals and that illustrates the big step up that Monaadah needs to make here.

This is often won by a horse doing the opposite to Monaadah and dropping in class. Seven winners since 2010 were running here after competing in a Group 1 on their previous start and that bodes well for Star Girls Aalmal, Dubawi Legend, Tacarib Bay and Hello You.

All four were beaten at the top level last time, but it was Star Girls Aalmal who performed the best when recording a Racing Post Rating of 104 when fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. She bids to give Henry de Bromhead a first Royal Ascot winner.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'He should hopefully be a live player'

Noble Truth has a tough act to follow in Creative Force, who won the Group 1 British Champions Sprint at Ascot in October. He finished down the field in the Saudi Derby in February but made a winning start to his British campaign when landing the Listed King Charles II Stakes by six lengths under William Buick.

NEWMARKET, ENGLAND - APRIL 29: William Buick riding Noble Truth (blue) win The Betfair King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket Racecourse on April 29, 2022 in Newmarket, England. (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

"Noble Truth is very headstrong but he's been gelded since his last run, which seems to have settled him down," said Charlie Appleby. "He won't mind the ground and should hopefully be a live player."

Noble Truth won the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster last September, beating Derby second Hoo Ya Mal by a nose and Alflaila, who was fourth and steps up to Group company for the first time for trainer Owen Burrows.

Alflaila finished sixth behind Guineas winner Coroebus on his final start last year and won by three and a half lengths at Ascot in May.

"He won well last time," said Burrows. "It was only a handicap but it came off a mark of 102 and we've been forced to step up in grade but he's rated 109 and doesn't look out of place.

"He's a course-and-distance winner and I'm not too concerned about the ground. We've left him fresh for this. If he's relaxed beforehand, hopefully he can show his potential."

What they say

Peter Schiergen, trainer of Rocchigiani
He's come out of the German Guineas well and his last piece of work was good. It’s a big field but he’s in good form. He needed his first run of the year but he was very good in the German Guineas and the form looks good because there was six lengths back to the third.

Dave Loughnane, trainer of Hello You
She came out of the Guineas well and seems to have come on again for it. I think the drop down to seven furlongs will suit.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Audience, Samburu and Find
Samburu is a progressive type who is tackling Graded company for the first time and should enjoy the ground. Audience was a bit unlucky under a penalty at Kempton last time and should handle the ground. This looks like Find's trip and he should handle the ground.

Roger Varian, trainer of Dubai Poet
We've fiddled about with his trip this year but he's a nice horse and he'll be suited by a strongly run, stiff seven furlongs. I hope he'll be all right on the ground and he could run well.

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Dubawi Legend
He loves fast ground. He blew it in the Guineas by failing to relax but if he relaxes and gets into a rhythm he should run a big race.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Tacarib Bay
He didn't really stay the trip in the Guineas so we've brought him back a furlong. We've been happy with his work and there is a good race in him.

Yann Barberot, trainer of Toimy Son
He's in great form and we've just kept him ticking over since his last serious piece of work ten days ago. He's an easy ride and you can put him anywhere in a race. British races tend to be run at a better pace than in France so we might be a bit further back. The good horses are drawn slightly away from us, with Noble Truth in 14, but watching the racing this week if there is a slight advantage it's on the inside rail and not close to the stands, so stall four should be fine.

Day five at Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot: Is this Ballydoyle's next star? Aidan O'Brien on the exciting Alfred Munnings

3.40 Ascot: Will Hurricane Lane be fully tuned up on his return in Hardwicke?

4.20 Ascot: 'Same preparation and same form' - but will Home Affairs emulate Nature Strip?

5.00 Ascot: Trainer quotes and analysis to help you solve a Wokingham like no other

5.35 Ascot: 'He goes there with a good chance' - key quotes for the Golden Gates Stakes

6.10 Ascot: 'He looked like he wasn't stopping' - can O'Brien and Moore claim Ascot closer?

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