Is Ginny's Destiny or Grey Dawning the one to stop Facile Vega and the Mullins express in red-hot Turners?

In a year when the two staying novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival attracted 13 declarations between them, the Turners has delivered a bumper field of 11. It feels like this should be the norm. The Brown Advisory and National Hunt Chase test a specific set of skills; the Turners should be for the best horses who might find the Arkle a beat too fast.

Facile Vega fits into that category. Zanahiyr and Sharjah could go the gallop in the Arkle, but taking Cheltenham's fences at two-mile pace would be their issue.

All three forged their reputation in other disciplines, as top-class hurdlers or bumper horses. You could argue it is Facile Vega's reputation that carries him into the higher end of the market here. On chase form, there are a couple of domestic runners who have already got championship-class novice chase form to their names.

At the start of this year's Cheltenham Festival, only two novice chasers could beat the 162 Racing Post Rating recorded by Ginny's Destiny and Grey Dawning; Il Est Francais has stayed on his side the Channel, while Fact To File landed the odds in the Brown Advisory yesterday.

Who you should favour out of Grey Dawning and Ginny's Destiny is arguable. Grey Dawning is the more visually appealing. Trainer Dan Skelton talks him up with elan and he lived up to that when sweeping to success in the Hampton at Warwick in January. He also shaped best when he came up against Ginny's Destiny here in December. He carried 3lb more in going down by three-quarters of a length and also lost a lot more ground than that with his jumping.

It is easy enough to hop to the other side of the fence and suggest more solid jumping is part of the reason Ginny's Destiny should be taken seriously. This strapping sort jumps for fun. Over 64 fences at Cheltenham so far, he has been faultless.

Ginny's Destiny has plenty of class, too. On the day he beat Grey Dawning, and on Trials day when he won a red-hot handicap off a mark of 147, his times compared favourably with open handicaps on the same card. On Trials day, he carried 6lb more weight than Ga Law, yet ran around 1.8 seconds faster overall and 0.6 seconds faster from three out.

Take that literally and Ginny's Destiny put up a performance that was nearly a stone better than Ga Law's. On the strength of his win, Ga Law earned himself a supplementary entry for the Ryanair. Any horse that runs a stone better than him in that race might well win it.

Combine Ginny's Destiny and Grey Dawning with Iroko, who has not been seen since beating Golden Son and Kilbeg King on his chasing debut, and British runners hold a narrow majority in the Turners market. That is without needing any of the Grade 1 novice chase winners from earlier in the season. Le Patron runs here but is an outsider, Nickle Back skips Cheltenham, and Il Est Francais has been discussed already. Similarly, Ireland's challenge can boast only a couple of minor Graded-race wins between them over fences.

Those bare facts might suggest that this Turners is all depth and no strength. But you do not need a sagging mantelpiece to identify a good horse and this race proves that several times over.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

RP Recommends: how to bet on the Turners

By Robbie Wilders, tipster

Sky Bet are dangling a carrot for punters by offering four places in the Turners. In my view there are only three viable winners of this race. They are the hard-to-split trio of Grey Dawning, Facile Vega and Ginny's Destiny. On value grounds, I'd be tempted to take the biggest price of that group each-way with Sky just before the off.

• RP Recommends: Sky Bet

Will Grey herald a new Skelton dawning?

Dan Skelton has nailed his colours to the Turners with Grey Dawning and he is confident the soft ground over the shorter trip can vindicate the decision for his rising star.

The seven-year-old emerged as a leading British novice chase player with a relentless Grade 2 victory at Warwick in January over three miles, and a decision on which festival contest to target was left as late as possible.

Skelton opted for the Grade 1 over half a mile less than Wednesday's Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and is hopeful the race will play to Grey Dawning's strengths. His other chase win this season came over 2m5½f at Haydock in November.

Grey Dawning (left): finished behind Ginny's Destiny (green cap) at the track in DecemberCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Skelton said: "He's really good and I've been delighted with his preparations. I liked the idea of running him more on the New course, especially on this ground, over the Brown Advisory. The drop back in trip will be absolutely no issue for him at all. When the ground went the way it has, it made the decision easier. That over this track and trip will play to his strengths."

Grey Dawning renews his rivalry with Ginny's Destiny, having been beaten into second by the latter at this track in December when giving him 3lb. He made a costly error at the second-last fence that day and Skelton added: "He was running a big race against Ginny's Destiny here in December and I'm looking forward to taking him on again. Perhaps without his mistake two out he'd have beaten him then."

Ginny's Destiny 'has to have a great chance' – Nicholls

Paul Nicholls struck in this last year with leading Ryanair Chase fancy Stage Star and he believes the similarly progressive Ginny's Destiny can give him successive wins in the race.

The eight-year-old has rapidly improved since switching to Nicholls' care from Tom Lacey, winning three of his four starts. He takes the same route as Stage Star did 12 months ago to the Turners, having dominated a handicap chase field on Trials day at the track last time.

Ginny's Destiny has raced exclusively at Cheltenham this season and Nicholls hopes that could also give him an extra edge over his rivals. He said: "The rain we’ve had will be a big help to him and he’s got course form. He’s been very good this season and as long as he takes his form forward again then he has to have a great chance."

Can Iroko do the incredible?

How quickly things can change. Just under four months after being ruled out for the season, Iroko arrives as a leading contender in his bid for another remarkable Cheltenham Festival victory.

The six-year-old gave joint-trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero their breakthrough festival triumph in last year's Martin Pipe Hurdle and made a sparkling chase debut at Warwick in November. However, a foot injury he then picked up looked set to keep him on the sidelines.

Iroko: a winner at last year's Cheltenham FestivalCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

A quicker than expected recovery thrust him back into the Turners picture and while he comes into the race with just one chase run under his belt, and a Haydock schooling gallop last month, his connections are relishing returning to the track. 

Greenall said: "All is good thankfully. The last couple of weeks couldn't have gone any better getting him here and all is still to play for with him. He's by Cokoriko and they tend to like softer ground, but we know he goes well in it and at the track too. The going might just slow the pace of the race down and that might help with the inexperience he has over fences."

What they say

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Colonel Harry
He's really well and will definitely like the rain that's come. He won the Towton on bottomless ground two starts ago and his only disappointment this season was in the Scilly Isles when Sandown was remarkably lively. He needs a big step up and a career-best.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Djelo
He deserves his place and hopefully will be competitive. The ground will be tough for them all but he has form on soft and heavy.

Paul Townend, rider of Facile Vega
He’s been turned over on the last two occasions over two miles. His last run was better than that at Christmas in my opinion. I do feel the step up in trip could bring about a bit of improvement in the horse. He's going the right way and is trained by a genius. I'm not giving up hope on him. It’s a good race with Grey Dawning and Ginny's Destiny warranting an awful lot of respect in the race. Zanahiyr is a high-class horse who has taken to chasing really well too so it’ll take a bit of winning.

Gary Moore, trainer of Le Patron
He's done really well this season. Any more rain would be pleasing as while he's okay on good ground, the softer it is the better when he's taking on this company. It's a bit of an ask, but he's entitled to be there on what he's done.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Letsbeclearaboutit
I just thought top weight in the Plate might be a big ask and he has a better chance of running well here. He ran well in the Dan Moore but the trip was probably too short and he hit the line really well. He didn't stay the last day at Naas in very testing ground. Hopefully this is the right trip and the ground shouldn't be a problem.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Zanahiyr He's a good solid horse with some quality form at the festival, including in a few Champion Hurdles. This trip will suit and he won nicely at Thurles over a trip on the sharp side. I think he's got a chance in an open race.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Read more previews:

'We hope there is more to come' - Gordon Elliott bids to add to impressive haul in Pertemps Final   

Who can carry the Ryanair forward? Envoi Allen heads intriguing field as he bids for back-to-back wins   

Gordon Elliott bids for back-to-back Stayers' Hurdle wins with hot favourite Teahupoo   

'The ground will be in his favour and I think he'll take a fair bit of stopping' - insight and key quotes for the Plate   

Three hugely talented mares put their unbeaten record on the line in a barnstorming clash   

'She's in great form and the soft ground should suit' - Angels Dawn bids to break near 40-year stat in Kim Muir   

Do you want £1,000+ in free bets for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators that our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing.