Is Arecibo a good thing? Graeme Rodway on what the Ascot sectionals tell us

1.50 Sandown
Coral Charge (Group 3) (Registered As The Sprint Stakes) | 5f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

Two of the leading contenders in this Group 3 bring genuine Group 1 form and Arecibo has the standout recent effort having finished second to Oxted in the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He surely has only to turn up in the same form to win this.

It's rarely that simple, though. Arecibo recorded a Racing Post Rating of 117 that day, which is 6lb higher than anything else he has achieved, and that came at the age of six on his 43rd run. It seems too good to be true and closer inspection suggests it might be.

Longines published sectional times for every race at the royal meeting on Ascot's official website and it's easy to deduce from those that Arecibo benefited from being ridden patiently in a race that was run at an extremely fast pace. He was flattered as a result and we can see that by calculating his finishing speed percentage (FS%).

By comparing Arecibo's sectional for the final two furlongs of the King's Stand with his overall time, we can establish the ratio between the speed he showed before the two-furlong pole and after it.

Arecibo's official finishing time was 59.34secs and he ran the final two furlongs in 23.65secs. Using a defined calculation, that means his FS% was 100.36 per cent, so he was finishing slightly faster than his average race speed. That is much closer to optimum than the majority in the race, including some high-profile rivals.

Take Battaash as an example. He was rated 19lb higher than Arecibo and went off 11-8 favourite, but recorded a time of 59.49secs and ran the last two furlongs in just 24.54secs. His FS% can therefore be calculated at 96.97 per cent and he clearly did too much too soon, because he was finishing slower than his average race speed.

He wasn't the only one, either. Liberty Beach (FS% 97.04 per cent) and Winter Power (95 per cent) also did most of their running in the first three furlongs and underperformed as a result.

Jamie Spencer, who gave Arecibo that well-judged ride at Ascot, is back in the saddle but there isn't a Battaash, Winter Power or Liberty Beach to take them along here and the pace is unlikely to be as fast. It's therefore doubtful this will fall into Arecibo's lap in the same way.

Keep Busy is the other genuine Group 1 performer in the field and she was three places behind Arecibo in the King's Stand. She didn't go off too fast, either, and had a similar FS% to Arecibo at 100.27 per cent. That suggests Arecibo wasn't flattered to beat her that day.

However, Keep Busy was 3lb below her best judged on RPRs on that occasion and has since had a confidence-boosting win in a Listed race at Ayr. We might see a different filly here.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'He did us proud at Royal Ascot'

Arecibo steps down in class as he bids to record his first Pattern success after thrilling connections last month.

The six-year-old, who was sent off at 28-1, finished a length and three-quarters behind Oxted.

"He did us proud at Royal Ascot and it wasn't a total surprise," said trainer Robert Cowell, who will also be represented by Rocket Action.

"Had he not got stopped in the Palace House Stakes he would have been a much shorter price last time. I was delighted with him and we thought the easier ground on a stiff track would suit him here.

"He seems to be right on his A game at the moment, but that could change any day with Arecibo as he is a bit of a law unto himself."

Of Rocket Action, the trainer added: "I don't know why but he wasn't well after he ran in France in April and it has taken some time to get him healthy again. We have put him in a visor just to sharpen him up – it could be something that revitalises his enthusiasm."

What they say

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Lazuli
We declared Lazuli on soft ground in the hope it would dry out, but if there's any more rain, it's unlikely he'll run. He's fit and ready to go but we have missed engagements at Haydock and in France because of soft ground. He's crying out to run and we want to get him out before looking at the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

Ed Walker, trainer of Came From The Dark
He's been better than ever this season and showed it with his win at Newbury and second in the Palace House Stakes. A setback ruled him out of the Temple Stakes and Royal Ascot, but he's in good form and won't mind rain. My only concern is whether Sandown will suit.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Happy Romance
She hated the heavy ground in the Commonwealth Cup last time and while it's soft ground here it isn't going to be anywhere near like it was at Ascot. I'm not worried about the drop in trip because she hasn't lost any speed and we'll probably make plenty of use of her.

Marco Botti, trainer of Atalis Bay
He needs to raise his game taking on the older horses but he's done nothing wrong this year and has definitely improved. I hope the ground will dry out as he would not want it any softer than good. He's got 10lb to find with Arecibo but he's relatively fresh and the others have been to Royal Ascot, which could play into our hands.

John Quinn, trainer of Keep Busy
She's run well at the track before and is versatile in terms of ground. She won nicely at Ayr after a hard race at Ascot and is really tough.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Saturday's big-race previews:

The Saturday Jury: 'He has a very good chance' – jockey Sean Levey on his weekend prospects (Members' Club)

2.05 Haydock: Dhushan seeking a hat-trick for William Haggas in red-hot three-year-old handicap

2.25 Sandown: Tom Collins on Montatham's chances as he returns to a familar hunting ground

2.40 Haydock: 'I don't think she's ever trained better' – George Boughey on his Oaks runner-up

3.15 Haydock: Graeme Rodway on why we could be seeing a different kind of Sir Mark Prescott plot

3.35 Sandown: big-name trainers on their Group 1 contenders in the Coral-Eclipse this Saturday

3.35 Sandown: why this Eclipse could show us a champion – just not the one you might think (Members' Club)

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