Is Aintree faller Copperless going to bounce back in the Swinton Hurdle?

3.10 Haydock
Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) | 1m7½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

If you were asked to pick out a selection of the unluckiest losers at Aintree’s Grand National meeting last month then Copperless would probably have a good chance of making the list.

The Olly Murphy-trained six-year-old was sent off 9-2 joint-favourite (Betfair SP 8.4) for the 2m½f handicap hurdle on the Friday of the festival and appeared to be travelling better than most when falling at the second-last. He was matched at a low of 2.3 in running on Betfair.

So has it been profitable to follow supposed unlucky fallers in the past?

Since the start of 2016, there have been 238 horses who returned to hurdling after falling when sent off favourite or joint-favourite in a hurdle race on their previous start and 48 won (20 per cent).

However, that doesn’t single out the unlucky ones. So, if we concentrate instead on only such runners who, like Copperless, traded at more than 60 per cent shorter than their Betfair SP in running on their previous starts (i.e. those who looked to be going well before falling), the figures come out worse with just four winners from 30 runners, for a 13 per cent strike-rate.

One thing is evident from both statistics, though, and that is the angle isn’t profitable. Backing all hurdlers who fell in their previous race when favourite or joint-favourite would have lost £65.28 to £1 level stakes, while those runners who went more than 60 per cent shorter than their Betfair SP also yielded a loss, albeit less at £8.63. The market knows.

The market didn’t like Ballinsker at Newbury last time when he went off 50-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, but his trainer Evan Williams has won four of the last seven runnings of this race and Ballinsker won’t be anywhere near as big a price, having been given a 76-day break since.

Ballinsker has a solid record fresh and appears to have been trained with the race in mind.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Murphy hoping rain doesn't bottom out Copperless

Olly Murphy will be one of many trainers casting an anxious glance towards the heavens ahead of an expected deluge of rain at Haydock on Saturday morning, but he holds high hopes for the progressive Copperless should the ground prove palatable.

Murphy is eager to set the record straight in an intriguing Aintree rematch with Rowland Ward and Camprond, who finished one-two in the conditional jockeys’ and amateur riders’ handicap hurdle on Topham day.

Copperless was arguably travelling best of all under Lewis Stones before falling two out that day when aiming to complete a hat-trick after wins at Market Rasen and Taunton.

Rowland Ward (left) and Camprond (centre) fight out the finish at Aintree last monthCredit: Alan Crowhurst

The ground conditions at Haydock were good to soft on Friday, with the six-year-old yet to encounter anything more testing.

"He’s in good form and was an unlucky loser at Aintree where he fell when he was travelling really nicely," said Murphy.

"He’s progressing well but my main concern now is the weather. If the heavens opened I’d be nervous about trying him on testing ground as he hasn’t encountered that before and we’re just not sure how he’d take to it. He’s off a lovely mark, though, and we’d be confident if we avoided the worst of the rain."

What they say

Karl Thornton, trainer of Shanroe
He’s travelled over great and has come on nicely for his Fairyhouse performance. He looks classy enough and hopefully he can run a big race as we think he could be a Graded performer who we’re still able to run in handicaps. He’s been given a big hike in the weights, which the Irish handicapper was entitled to do, but we’re disappointed he’s been given an extra 7lb by the British handicapper.

Stuart Edmunds, trainer of Rowland Ward
He’s come out of his Aintree run well. Softer conditions wouldn’t bother him at all and a quickly-run two-mile race is ideal. That’s what he had at Aintree and hopefully he’ll get the same today. He’s gone up 10lb for that run, but hopefully there’s another few left in him.

Karl Thornton: has his first runner in Britain since November 2019Credit: Patrick McCann

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Hooper
He hasn’t put a foot wrong all season, but my concern would be the ground. He won on soft at Hereford but that was only because one fell at the last. That wasn’t his best performance and that was because he didn’t like the ground.

David Pipe, trainer of Nordic Combined
He won well last time to get in here and hopefully he can go well, but he’s a difficult horse to win with. He seems to go on any ground so any rain wouldn’t be a problem.

Evan Williams, trainer of Ballinsker
He’s a horse we’ve always liked and we’ve always thought is capable of running well in one of these good handicaps. It’s a race which has been kind to us over the years and I think he’s an interesting candidate off a nice racing mark. We wouldn’t want the ground to go too soft but having said that it was quite testing at Cheltenham when he had a good run in the Greatwood.
Reporting by Sam Hendry

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