Derby hopefuls put Classic credentials on the line - can anyone threaten Aidan O'Brien's hot favourite Grosvenor Square?

With six winners and seven places from 17 runners in the last ten years, there is only one trainer to start with here and that is Aidan O’Brien. He saddles two this year and will be hoping at least one can develop into a genuine Epsom contender. 

Grosvenor Square is the pick of Ryan Moore and also the form choice, having recorded a Racing Post Rating of 105 when winning a Group 3 last time.

Grosvenor Square thrashed five rivals by four and a quarter lengths in that Eyrefield Stakes over 1m1f at Leopardstown and sets a clear standard, but the last five O’Brien runners in this race to have recorded an RPR of at least 105 on their previous start were beaten.

The Ballydoyle trainer had the form horse in the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday in City Of Troy, but he was beaten by an unexposed runner from the Godolphin stable who had yet to run in a Group contest so can Hidden Law emulate his stablemate Notable Speech by doing the same?

It’s difficult to equate what he has achieved by finishing second in a Southwell novice and winning a Newbury maiden with the proven Group form of Grosvenor Square, but he is only 6lb behind that rival on RPRs and is bred to be top-class as a Dubawi son of Secret Gesture.

She was second in an Oaks and Hidden Law has already won over a mile and three furlongs so he looks certain to stay this extra furlong and a half and might even improve for it.

John and Thady Gosden and Andrew Balding have kept the prize at home in two of the last three years and both are represented. Balding saddles the once-raced winner Cadogan Place and the Gosden team rely solely on the Wolverhampton winner Pappano.

Neither of those have the same profile as Youth Spirit or Arrest, who were each trainer’s respective recent winners, and both of those came into this having run in Group races.

Golden West did run in a Group 3 last time in France, and trainer Karl Burke has taken the French Group-race route with a few of his three-year-olds this year before bringing them back for big prizes at home. It is an approach that hasn’t really paid off – at least not yet.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

'We always thought a mile and a half would suit him well'

Since 2007, Aidan O'Brien has saddled the winner of the Chester Vase ten times with Soldier Of Fortune, Treasure Beach and Ruler Of The World all landing the Group 3 1m4½f contest before going on to Derby success at Epsom or the Curragh.

O'Brien sent out Adelaide River to finish second to Arrest last season after landing the honours in 2022 with Changingoftheguard and has another promising colt seeking to advertise his Classic credentials in Grosvenor Square, who put in a quality performance when winning the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes by four and a quarter lengths at Leopardstown in October.

Grosvenor Square was a Group 3 winner last yearCredit: CAROLINE NORRIS

That success came over 1m1f but the three-year-old is a half-brother to 2020 Irish Derby winner Santiago so there is plenty of encouragement he will relish this step up in distance.

Better ground is a question mark given his Leopardstown success came on a very testing surface, while it was soft for his maiden win at Galway but based on pedigree it should not be an issue for the son of Galileo and Ryan Moore has opted to partner him of the two contenders from the stable.

O'Brien said "Grosvenor Square is ready to start and hopefully runs a nice race. We'll learn a lot about him and he will learn plenty at Chester. We always thought the step up to a mile and a half would suit him well."

O'Brien also saddles Agenda who finished third behind two stablemates at the Curragh on debut before getting off the mark in excellent style at Dundalk in March. He galloped four and three quarter lengths clear of the 84-rated Huxley, with Sea The Polaris, who subsequently bolted up in a maiden at Gowran Park last month – albeit over a much shorter trip – back in third.

He seemed to thrive for the step up from 7f to 1m2½f that day and Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride.

"Agenda always looked like he would stay well and he did it well at Dundalk when stepped up in trip," said O'Brien. "He looks like he would have no problems with a mile and a half and, like Grosvenor Square, he should learn plenty here."

Going update

The going is good as of Tuesday morning at Chester with a GoingStick reading of 7.9. It has been dry over the last 24 hours with a dry, cloudy forecast over the coming days.

What they say

Oisin Murphy, rider of Cadogan Place
We were very happy with him at Southwell. He's hopefully improving all the time.

Clifford Lee, jockey of Golden West
He was always behind the bride on his comeback in France last month when he was still a bit babyish. We're fitting cheekpieces to sharpen him up and make plenty of use for him but he's not drawn the best on the outside.

Charlie Appleby runs Hidden Law in the Chester VaseCredit: Edward Whitaker

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Hidden Law
We were delighted with him at Newbury, when he showed a big improvement from his first start. We know this is a fair step up in class, but he looked to run to a decent level when winning his maiden. This will hopefully give us a clearer picture of his summer programme.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Pappano
He's up in grade from his novice win at Wolverhampton last time but he showed that day he can act around bends and we've always liked him. We respect the favourite in the race but he deserves to take his chance.

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