'I'll be very disappointed if he's not in the first four' - analysis and quotes for the Pertemps Final

The most basic principle of handicapping is that if you win a race your chance of confirming form with the beaten rivals in an equivalent future event is theoretically reduced. That is a simplistic view of a complex model, but somewhat explains the poor record of Pertemps qualifier winners in the final.

Eligibility for the final hinges on horses finishing in the first four in at least one of a series of qualifiers staged from October through to February and that criterion was hardened this season. Previously, horses who finished fifth and sixth in those races booked their ticket for Cheltenham providing they were high enough in the weights. In the race’s current guise Sire Du Berlais, sixth at Leopardstown en route to capturing the final in 2020, would not have been running.

It has typically paid to sniff out the well-beaten, undercooked eyecatcher from one of the qualifiers. Among 61 qualifier winners, only one has followed up at the festival since 2013 and that was Fingal Bay in 2014. That statistic of 1-61 falls well short of an xW of 3.71 and 53 of those finished unplaced. These numbers go against Glimpse Of Gala, Maxxum, Green Book, Itchy Feet, Brandy McQueen, Walking On Air and Thanksforthehelp. Significantly, three among that group are among the few available at single-figure odds and the old-fashioned tailed-off qualifier system is still an angle to explore.

Early favourite Thanksforthehelp is a stone worse off with Bear Ghylls for their meeting at Chepstow in February in which Bear Ghylls faded into fourth, beaten 15 and a half lengths by the winner.

Thanksforthehelp was undoubtedly impressive that day, but his lowly handicap mark of 117 demanded a performance to get the assessor's attention to make the cut for the final. Conversely, there was minimal requirement for Bear Ghylls to arrive fully tuned up given his much higher handicap rating and all told, the run from the fourth was encouraging following a few underwhelming efforts over fences.

Bear Ghylls’s talent is abundantly clear on the strength of his fourth behind Bob Olinger, Bravemansgame and Gaillard Du Mesnil in a vintage Ballymore just five starts back and he missed the whole of last season through injury. At five times the price of Thanksforthehelp, it is clear where the early value lies.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

No help for the bookies

You cannot blame the bookmakers if they are running scared of Thanksforthehelp. They can read the formbook and know the history.

He is owned by legendary gambler JP McManus and 11 of trainer David Pipe's 15 Cheltenham Festival wins have come in handicaps, including with the remarkable Buena Vista who left nondescript previous efforts behind to take this race in 2010 and 2011.

And Pipe's record-breaking father martin landed a huge touch in the same contest with Unsinkable Boxer in 1998, telling jockey Tony McCoy: "This horse is the biggest certainty that will ever walk out onto this racecourse" before the 5-2 favourite's easy success.

Layers remember things like that even a quarter of a century later and have made Thanksforthehelp no better than a 5-1 or 6-1 shot for a supposedly ultra-competitive handicap since even before the weights were published.

That is not just due to the owner and trainer but also because of an extraordinary performance last month at Chepstow, where the six-year-old was stepped up to nearly three miles on his first outing since a wind operation and was also fitted with cheekpieces.

Thanksforthehelp was always travelling supremely well in a big field and scored by an easy six and a half lengths and the same – 'led before two out, soon clear, canter' was how the mightily impressed Racing Post close-up writer saw it.

Thanksforthehelp was put up 11lb by the handicapper afterwards and the question is whether that will be enough to save the bookmakers another big payout. Pipe said: "He won nicely at Chepstow and the track and trip should suit so I hope he'd have a good chance. It was a good performance last time. I don't think it was the strongest of races but all you can do is win. It's a lot more competitive on Thursday but he's at the right end of the weights."

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Salvador Ziggy, The Bosses Oscar, Maxxum and Level Neverending
Nothing went right for Maxxum at Leopardstown. He got trapped on the inside when the race was hotting up and he never really got into it. He'd looked progressive before that. Salvador Ziggy has done really well but looks to have a lot of weight so we've decided to claim off him. We've put Ben Harvey up on The Bosses Oscar to take off 5lb and I was thrilled with him at Musselburgh. He has some decent festival form. Level Neverending has blinkers on for the first time and should give Sam Ewing a good spin. We've always thought a bit of him.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Itchy Feet
He's been rejuvenated since going back over hurdles and he's one of the classier horses in the race, although I'm not sure how he'll enjoy a big field.

Itchy Feet: "One of the classier horses in the field"Credit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Tony Martin, trainer of Good Time Jonny
He ran very well when third in his qualifier at Christmas and he's been around Cheltenham before so hopefully that will stand him in good stead. Coming back up in trip should suit.

Nick Alexander, trainer of Wakool
He seems to have a lot of weight, but he's also improving. He'll be very happy on the ground and at the track and he seems to turn up and run his race every time.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Captain Morgs, Mill Green and Walking On Air
Mill Green was third in this off the same mark last year and ran an encouraging race on his comeback at Haydock. Captain Morgs had been running over two and half miles but we upped him to three miles on his last start and put cheekpieces on and he won well. This has always been my plan for Walking On Air. There's not necessarily one who is miles ahead in the pecking order but I thought Walking On Air won very nicely at Exeter last time. He went up 5lb for that, but given the way he won that's probably fair and he's always looked a genuine three-miler.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Green Book and Burrows Park
Green Book ran well in the Albert Bartlett last year after winning at Sandown and then disappointing at Haydock. We'll see if he can follow the same pattern. I hope Burrows Park can do his syndicate proud and run a competitive race.

Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of An Tailliur
I think the ground will be too dead for him. He'll take his chance but he's done most of his winning on good ground, he bounces off that.

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Glimpse Of Gala and Hector Javilex
Glimpse Of Gala runs with her heart on her sleeve every time and we're putting cheekpieces on because she hits a slight flat spot. Hector Javilex won nicely over course and distance and may have a bit more room for improvement.

Nicky Martin, trainer of Bear Ghylls
He didn't have an ideal prep before Chepstow and got a bit tired but did well to finish fourth. We know he's a good horse and we're hoping the switch back to hurdling will help him get his mojo back. We know he goes well at Cheltenham.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of The Changing Man
He's run well all season and he's improved with every run. He needs to improve again but he loves the track.

Jane Williams, trainer of Moka De Vassy
It took a while for him to get the hang of things but the penny is definitely dropping now and he could be a very interesting each-way shot. I'll be very disappointed if he's not in the first four.
Reporting by David Carr

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2.50 Cheltenham: The British banker? Shishkin 'in very good shape' as he bids for Cheltenham redemption   

3.30 Cheltenham: 'You'd have to be delighted with everything he's done' - top trainers on a star-studded Stayers' Hurdle   

4.10 Cheltenham: 'His lack of experience is a worry' - can Emmet Mullins and JP McManus hotpot justify favouritism?   

4.50 Cheltenham: 'We've taken the easier option' - can the classy Luccia maintain her unbeaten record?   

5.30 Cheltenham: 'I've had this race in mind for a while' - key quotes and analysis for the Kim Muir   

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