'If they go down the middle he could be in business' - who can be the answer to a tricky punting puzzle in York's opener?

No major festival kicks off with a more difficult betting race. This ultra-competitive sprint, over a rarely used trip that muddies its identity, is a match for the Ebor itself.

The depth of in-form runners and breadth of formlines on offer provide plenty of clues, but not of the kind that help narrow the field. The draw does not help in that respect either. For a spell, there was a bias towards low-numbered stalls but you would not have won much in recent years focusing your efforts there.

Going through this year's field, it is suggested that a majority of the most interesting horses are in the lower half of the draw. More importantly, plenty of them have tons of pace.

Democracy Dilemma (stall three) is the fastest horse we will see this week, at least this side of the Nunthorpe. Jordan Electrics, who has set a couple of course records at Hamilton this summer, is in seven. Copper Knight is two further along the line. Interesting form types such as Kylian (five), Jm Jungle (six) and Shagraan (eight) should have a good foothold early on.

Those on the near side have no bankable leaders higher than tearaway Tees Spirit in 16. Royal Ascot winner Pilgrim, Shergar Cup winner Holkham Bay and the talented Pocklington are in the three highest stalls. Their jockeys have a decision to make straight out of the gates.

Middle stalls do worse than those on either wing in this race, but by a less clear-cut margin than you might expect. There are plenty in that neighbourhood of interest and they can pick between Tees Spirit and Never Dark (11) for some early pace.

Vintage Clarets (14) has a good record at York in the second half of the season, while We Never Stop (15) is more progressive than his form figures imply. The latter is the sort of horse who should be on your shortlist for most similar races, but you could be forgiven for forcing him off in one as deep as this.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Robert Cowell, trainer of Democracy Dilemma
He likes to blaze away out in front and York is a good track for that. He wasn’t the best away last time but he’ll have the Withefords ['horse whisperer' Gary] with him and hopefully he can get out on terms.

Mike Prince, racing manager to Middleham Park Racing, owners of Silky Wilkie
He showed plenty of boot there last time over six, when he might not have got home, and we are expecting this slight drop in trip to play to his strengths.

William Knight, trainer of Holkham Bay
He’s drawn right on the stands' rail in 22, which may not be ideal as I’d rather have been a few stalls off it. He’s up 10lb for his win at the Shergar Cup, which was a bit harsh, but we are claiming half of that off him.

Adrian Nicholls, trainer of Tees Spirit
It’s competitive, as you would expect, but he ran well in a deeper race than this in France last time. If they go down the middle he could be in business from stall 16.

Tom Marquand, rider of Shagraan
He would have a live chance on his win at Goodwood last time and has a decent draw in eight.

Geoff Oldroyd, trainer of Pocklington
He made a noise at Ascot last time, since when we’ve had his wind done. We’ve also put the blinkers on as he can be a bit colty. He’s drawn high but has some fancied ones around him.

Adam Ryan, assistant trainer of Bergerac and We Never Stop
Bergerac has good course-and-distance form and goes there in good shape. We're very happy with him. We Never Stop ran well at Redcar but I think he was just undone at Goodwood, which can be quite common. He's an improving three-year-old and, although he needs a step up in form, he's open to all sorts of progress.

John Quinn, joint-trainer of Jm Jungle
He’s been running well all year and has run well at York before without quite getting his head in front. He has a nice draw and we are looking forward to it.

Cam Hardie, rider of Tropical Island
She could be well handicapped on her old form and would have an each-way chance if she can handle her draw in stall one. She's been breezing nicely.

Iain Jardine, trainer of Never Dark
He's been running well this season. It's a big open handicap but he's got a light weight and is a big, strong horse. You could run this race a few times and get different results, and we're more hopeful than confident.
Reporting by David Milnes

York previews:

2.25: Has the Derby come early? Classic favourites Ruling Court and The Lion In Winter clash in Acomb meeting of superpowers

3.00: Can Irish Derby winner Los Angeles set up St Leger tilt with Group 2 Voltigeur Stakes victory at York?

3.35: 'He’s ready for the next level' - star-studded group of challengers gather to take on City Of Troy in race of the season

4.10: 'This step up in trip should suit' - key quotes and analysis for £100,000 staying handicap at York