'If she runs, she's in the form of her life' - but ground may leave Sumo Sam vulnerable in open Park Hill

Sumo Sam appears to have been trained to repeat last year’s victory in this race by joint-trainers Paul and Oliver Cole after a pipe-opener at Newbury last month.

That was Sumo Sam’s first start after wind surgery and only her second outing of the season, but she showed plenty of promise. She might have finished only fourth of five, but she set a strong pace for the majority of the race and did well to hang in there for as long as she did.

That should have teed her up nicely for this and she is a fresh horse at a time of the season when many have had plenty of racing, but connections must be cursing the weather in Yorkshire because it has been drier than many places in Britain, and Sumo Sam likes it soft.

Three of her four highest Racing Post Ratings have been achieved on soft or heavy ground and it’s unlikely to be that this time, so can she reproduce her best form on quicker going?

She ran well enough for a long way at Newbury last time on good to firm ground, which gives hope that she may not need it like a bog. If that is the case she looks the one to beat.

The market makes Night Sparkle favourite and that is a bit of a surprise. She has recorded RPRs of 108 on three of her last five starts but has yet to better that and will probably need to if she is to win. The median winning RPR of this race recently is 110.

She is therefore 2lb short of an average winner in the last ten years, but Mistral Star is the only horse to have hit that magic number and maybe it’s a weaker running this season.

Mistral Star sets the standard as a result and comes here following a good fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks last time. She has a huge chance if she can repeat that at this longer trip.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Ground and weather

The ground was good after 0.4mm of rain on Wednesday morning, with a dry and breezy forecast for Thursday when it will be a cool 14C in the wind.

Scenic 'finally getting it together'

Ed Walker and Tom Marquand are both chasing their first wins in a race sometimes referred to as the fillies' St Leger with Scenic, who comes here after winning the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes at York last month.

The Upper Lambourn trainer does hold some concerns about his four-year-old tackling Group 2 level just three weeks after her gutsy win on the Knavesmire but is hopeful she can cope with the schedule.

He said: “I'm excited to be running her in the Park Hill as she's finally getting it together and has stepped up a level on her last two starts.

"I've been worried about this coming a bit soon after her win at York and I still wish it was another week or two away, but she looks well, she's fresh and happy and in good order. This is a great spot in an open-looking Group 2 over a trip which she should stay well.”

What they say

Hughie Morrison, trainer of Mistral Star
She ran a great race to be fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks last time and we expect another good showing if the ground stays good, but if it went soft we would take her out.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Night Sparkle
She's been unlucky a few times to bump into one and has lots of seconds. She deserves to be towards the top of the market and she's one of the highest-rated in the field.

Oliver Cole, joint-trainer of Sumo Sam
We've also declared for Salisbury [on Friday], so we'll go up there, walk the course and check we're happy with the ground. If she runs, she's in the form of her life.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Sweet Memories
She ran a great comeback to be fourth in the Lancashire Oaks but things didn’t go to plan in the Prix de Pomone at Deauville last time where the ground was very soft. We expect this sounder surface and longer trip to suit her better.

Alex Elliott, spokesman for Valmont, owners of Oxford Comma
We’ve had this race in mind for her since her last win at this track in June, but we maybe would have liked to get a run into her beforehand. She’s a strong stayer who would appreciate any more rain if they get any.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read the rest of our Thursday previews:

2.25 Doncaster: 'We have the right man on board' - expert analysis and trainers' views for wide-open juvenile event

3.00 Doncaster: 'She could be a very good filly' - can Desert Flower extend her unbeaten run to three in the May Hill?

4.10 Doncaster: Well regarded and one-time 'possible Derby horse' given 'a fine opportunity' on his handicap debut