'If it rains, his chances improve massively' - analysis and key quotes for the Hurst Park Handicap Chase

The purse for the Hurst Park Handicap Chase is slightly more than the Red Rum and four-fifths of the Grand Annual. It typically takes nowhere near as much winning as either. A much lower ceiling on the race this year has contributed to a more competitive look.

Topweight Martator is rated 140 by the BHA. He is still something of a star attraction. Success over course and distance three weeks ago means he has now won four races in a row. It is interesting to note that he has not been favourite for any of them. The market might be cottoning on at the point where he becomes vulnerable, up another 6lb in the warmest race yet.

What Martator has done in recent runs is suggest he will always be most comfortable given a stiff test around two miles. That cannot be said for all his rivals. Triple Trade will wear cheekpieces in an attempt to stave off moving up in distance. Kotmask was third to Martator last time, shaping as if he needs to go back over further. Even Prince Quali, who beat Sans Bruit when last seen, and is a live runner if fit, seems likely to end the season over longer trips.

The biggest danger might be Sans Bruit himself. His rise over fences in the spring was rapid, he won the Red Rum ten days after his first chase outing for Paul Nicholls. Like so many from the yard, he looked in need of the run on his reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup but still ran a creditable third.

Sans Bruit was well suited to Bryony Frost's favoured attacking style, but you could not say that Harry Cobden taking over the ride is a negative. There will certainly be no less intent in how Cobden rides, given his pursuit of the recently announced Jockeys' Cup. His tactical aim is likely to be the sort of balanced aggression that Ascot's chase course so frequently rewards.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Venetia Williams, trainer of Martator
The ground will be more testing than last time if the rain comes, but he operates on good and soft. Ned Fox is riding him for the first time on a racecourse, but he has ridden him from time to time at home. I'm hoping for another good run.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Sans Bruit
He ran very well at Exeter. He did a lot on the front end that day, and I think he has improved for the run. Any rain would be helpful to him.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Harper's Brook and Frere D'Armes
Harper's Brook bled last time, but it was his first run for us and we didn't know much about him. There have been no negative signs and on his old form he'll have a chance. Frere D'Armes runs well there and picks up prize-money every time. He doesn't exactly look like he's about to win one, but he always runs well in these races. He'd have an each-way chance.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Triple Trade
He's sharpened up for his run at Cheltenham and he won't mind if we got plenty of rain. The softer the better for him. We know he likes the track and he's got a chance, but it's a wide-open contest, although there's no reason why he can't run his race.

Gary Moore, joint-trainer of Kotmask
He ran really well there the other day, although this is a slightly better race. If we get rain it'll suit him, but if we don't it doesn't matter as he's in good form. He was unlucky the other day and hopefully he can run a solid race.

Evan Williams, trainer of Wewillgowithplanb
He'll have zero chance if the rain doesn't come. If it rains, his chances improve massively. He ran a good race on heavy ground last time and gets in off a low weight.
Reporting by Liam Headd

Saturday previews:

12.30 Punchestown: Ballyburn out to emulate Gaelic Warrior, Faugheen and Champagne Fever with chase debut victory at Punchestown

2.10 Punchestown: Magic Morgiana in store as State Man attempts to repel two new challengers in Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead

2.30 Haydock: 'I didn't expect to be coming here' - Dan Skelton on his three runners in valuable staying handicap hurdle

2.45 Ascot: 'He's been trained for the race and he escapes a penalty' - who has big hopes of landing the Ascot Hurdle?

3.05 Haydock: 'I'd love to come away with a genuine Gold Cup horse' - Dan Skelton excited for Grey Dawning's Betfair Chase challenge