'I'd love him to win one and go out on a high note' - sprint handicap quotes

Saturday: 3.15 Chelmsford
Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap | 6f | 3yo+ | ITV4/RTV

While runners in 6f races at Chelmsford have nearly a third of the race to get organised before the sweeping bend that takes them into the home straight, there is a significant bias towards those who are drawn nearest the inside.

The graphic below, which considers all handicaps over the course and distance with eight runners or more since the start of 2018, shows this neatly. A horse drawn in stall two, or either of its nearest neighbours, can expect to beat 56 per cent of its rivals. One drawn in 14 can expect to beat just 35 per cent. In a 14-runner race that translates to a difference of about three positions, purely based on the draw.

Part of the reason is something common to all races at Chelmsford: it is a well-known track for front-runners. Races over six furlongs conform to this. Front-runners have provided 18 per cent of winners from just ten per cent of runners. The market would have expected 24 winners (taking, for example, an even-money shot as 0.5 expected winners) from front runners, while in actual fact they have produced 36.

Paying close attention to the draw, and identifying early pace, is therefore particularly important in sprints at the course. However, as this is a low-grade handicap there are plenty of free-goers and quirky sorts who tend to be covered up at least partly for their own good.

The one who is most in the habit of cutting out the running is Viewfromthestars, a ten-race maiden who started positively for Mark Usher but has stuttered a little on his last two starts. His draw in seven is neither a hindrance nor a help.

What is a help is having David Probert in the saddle. He is one of the leading course jockeys with 12 wins from 71 rides this year. Only Luke Morris (rides Maybe Tonight), Kevin Stott (Breezyandbright) and Rossa Ryan have ridden more winners at Chelmsford in 2022. When the horses are hard to rely on, sticking with jockeys who know the finer points of riding the track can be the way to go.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Williams targets fairytale send off with Shamshon

Stuart Williams is hoping Shamshon can go out in a blaze of glory as the veteran sprinter makes his 125th career start.

The soon-to-be 12-year-old is chasing a 17th win, and if he manages it he will be retired immediately by his doting trainer and owner.

Shamshon has been a great servant not just to Williams but also to racing as he has been around since 2013 when he ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf for Richard Hannon snr.

"He's just about ready for retirement and I'd love him to win one and go out on a high note," said Williams. "He's in great form, Luke [Catton] rides him well and he'd have a chance.

"He's been a star for us and has won a lot of races and given some of the younger lads the opportunity to have rides. I'd like to see him win a race and then I'd retire him straight after."

What they say

Robyn Brisland, trainer of Black Box and Delagate The Lady
Black Box ran a solid race last time at Wolverhampton after a layoff and goes there with every chance. Delagate The Lady is having her first run for me and she's an interesting filly. The draw [14] should suit her, which is unusual for Chelmsford, as she seems to always finish very well, so you'd leave her alone in the early part of the race. Hopefully I've got her fit enough and she should run a solid race.

Mark Loughnane, trainer of San Juan
He's a low-grade sprinter who hasn't run for a couple of months. He's in good form. He can be slowly away, so as long as he doesn't give too much ground away he should run his race. Billy [Loughnane] is riding well, so his 7lb claim ought to be an advantage.

Mick Appleby, trainer of Cazeva Princess and Pearl's A Swinger
Cazeva Princess has been off a while and had a good break and has come back really well. She'll probably need the run. I'd like to think Pearl's A Swinger will run well as she ran a lot better last time and showed a bit of speed. She's come on for that last run and should have a good each-way chance.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

Saturday previews:

2.40 Chelmsford: Can Lord Paramount land the odds against experienced rivals?

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