'I'd like to think he's on a very lenient mark' - who is looking forward to seeing how his runner gets on?

Nicky Henderson inferred that Under Control would be put away for the season after her impressive Cheltenham victory nine days ago, but now she is short-priced favourite for one of the hottest novice handicap hurdles around.

Her participation can be construed as a positive or a negative, depending on how you look at races.

On one hand it implies a vote of confidence by Henderson, who saw fit to run Under Control in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham two starts back on just her second start for the stable after a sole hurdles success.

The trainer is also 12-40 at a 30 per cent strike-rate with horses returning within ten days of a victory since 2010. Those numbers are in theory reasonable, although backing each of the runners would have yielded a £15.79 loss to £1 stakes.

There is little juice in Under Control’s price in a race with serious depth and JP McManus’s second and third-string runners represent the early value.

It is worth dismissing the fact Nico de Boinville rides Under Control over the lesser-fancied Henderson-trained Iberico Lord as Aidan Coleman has been aboard for all three of his starts in Britain, the first of which came in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham (7-2 SP).

Iberico Lord is best judged on the third run as he accounted for the reopposing Beau Balco fair and square at Stratford on his first start following 96 days off and a wind op. The door is open for dramatic improvement now he is sent handicapping.

Jonjo O'Neill: legendary character who has stayed the course as a jockey and trainer

Jonjo O'Neill: trainer of Imperial BedeCredit: Edward Whitaker

The Jonjo O’Neill-trained Imperial Bede must be respected as his recent Dovecote fourth to Rubaud is working out strongly. The winner bolted up in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, while fifth Hansard hit the frame in an Aintree Grade 1 novice hurdle.

Imperial Bede also beat subsequent Grade 1 winners Il Est Francais and Irish Point in a Fontainebleau bumper in September 2021, adding credence to suspicions that an opening mark of 120 underestimates him.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Holetown Hero, Beau Balko and Killaloan
Holetown Hero could run well. He’ll like the faster ground. Beau Balko won nicely at Sandown two starts ago, and then ran a good race when qualifying for this at Stratford. He’s got a nice chance. Rain would help him. Killaloan has won his last three and is a progressive young horse. We don’t know how far he’ll go [in terms of rating] at this stage. He has a nice chance too.

Fergal O’Brien, trainer of Dancila
He's seems in good form. The rain they've had is a bit worrying, but if it dried out a bit I'd hope he had a good chance. He was great the first day at Musselburgh and although obviously I'd like it if he were 1lb or 2lb lower, he's a nice horse going forward and we're looking forward to seeing him run.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Under Control and Iberico Lord
Under Control is fine and in great form. She's running again a bit quick after her smooth success at Cheltenham last week, but the race is worth a lot of money. Iberico Lord is also a promising horse and he's in good shape. I was pleased with how he won at Stratford last time, which qualified him nicely for this.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Joe Dadancer
I'd like to think he's on a very lenient mark for a horse of his ability and I'm really looking forward to seeing how he gets on.

Gary Moore, trainer of Kansas Du Berlais
He had an easy race the other day and thankfully so because it was only a week ago. He seems in rude health, but he impressed me so much more on better ground the other day than what he did on soft ground. He goes on both but I just hope it isn’t too soft for him.
Reporting by Harry Wilson

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