'I think he'll win a big one, whether it's this one I don't know' - analysis and key quotes for Bunbury Cup

The rule of thumb among many punters is that a horse needs to have at least 6lb in hand of its mark to win heritage handicaps of this nature.

Carrytheone has dominated the ante-post market after an eyecatching Royal Ascot defeat, but does the seven-year-old, who has run 24 times during his career, fit the criteria of a runner well ahead of his rating?

Those who witnessed his deeply troubled passage through the final two furlongs of the Buckingham Palace Stakes off the same mark may think so, but this looks much more open than the betting suggests.

Carrytheone is 1lb worse off with Gorak, who he beat by a short head over course and distance in May, and also 1lb worse with Divine Libra, a nose back in third that day.

The four-year-old Aalto, who unsurprisingly has less mileage than Carrytheone, has twice given the impression in recent starts over 7f at Haydock and York that he is well enough treated to land a valuable handicap.

Richard Hannon won this race with Motakhayyel in 2020 and 2021, and course-and-distance winner Dark Thirty looks interesting for the stable this year.

The son of Starspangledbanner finished an excellent third to Quinault over 6f at this meeting 12 months ago, and is arguably even more effective at this trip. If he can put two below-par runs at Epsom and Royal Ascot behind him, he definitely has the ability to play a part in the finish off his current mark of 96.

Awaal, third in this race last year as 7-2 favourite, returns off 3lb lower and fits the profile of a potentially well-handicapped horse. He missed big-race engagements at Doncaster and Royal Ascot, but connections are not concerned by the fact this will be his first run since October.
Race analysis by Richard Birch

‘Carrytheone a very live player’

Carrytheone, one of the biggest eyecatchers during Royal Ascot week, has unsurprisingly been heavily backed to gain valuable compensation for his unlucky defeat in the Buckingham Palace Stakes.

Repeatedly denied a clear run from two furlongs out, the Pat Dobbs-ridden seven-year-old finished third behind English Oak, and runs off the same mark of 101 with Ryan Moore recruited to the cause.

Michael Bell, trainer of Carrytheone, who is as short as 3-1 favourite, said: “He was obviously visually very unlucky at Ascot and has been in very good form since that race. He’s a very live player and we all know Ryan Moore is best of the best. I am sure he will get a tune out of him.”

What they say

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Awaal
He’s ground dependent. It was too quick for him at Royal Ascot, so he didn’t run. He’s in super form. I know he hasn’t run for a long time but that shouldn’t really matter. I’m happy enough with the draw.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Mostabshir
He ran a great race to be fourth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes over this trip at Royal Ascot last time and he has come out of that in good shape. He’s drawn in the middle which means he could go either side.

Daniel Kubler, joint-trainer of Percy’s Lad
He was very good at Chester and he ran a really good race in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, just on the wrong side. He won his side. You always need luck in those big fields but, with the right amount of luck, he should have a half-decent chance.

Karl Burke, trainer of Lethal Levi
He ran a great race in the Wokingham and he stays 7f. The blinkers have definitely helped him and if they carry on working he should run another big race.

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Gorak
He has run two cracking races at Newmarket this year. The track really plays to his strengths and drying ground would be a plus. The better the ground the better he is. He also ran extremely well in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot last time, finishing second on his side, beaten a head. All the action was on the other side.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Divine Libra
He has been perfect since finishing sixth in the Buckingham Palace. Ryan [Moore] said he would have finished second with a better run. He should be bang there.

William Muir, joint-trainer of Mustajaab
He’s in great order. I think he’ll win a big one. Whether it’s this one I don’t know, but he’ll get his head in front in one of the big races one day.

Ed Bethell, trainer of Yorkshire
I am really looking forward to running him at Newmarket. He worked very well on Tuesday morning and this is exactly the sort of race which should suit him. He likes the set-up of a big-field, fast-run race where he can drop in and hit the line strong. Whether he’s good enough for a race like this we’ll have to see, but he certainly deserves to have a crack at it.

Read these Saturday previews:

No Maljoom, no problem as Quddwah and Embesto give Sheikh Ahmed a Summer Mile stranglehold

'This has been the plan for a little while but he's drawn out in the car park' - trainers on their John Smith's Cup contenders

'This is a path we've trodden before' - can Ancient Truth hand Charlie Appleby a fifth Superlative Stakes win?

'There is plenty more to come' - Inisherin camp issue warning to rivals as star sprinters clash in fascinating July Cup

Smart View: who are the top-rated runners in the July Cup according to our revolutionary racecard?

Can Aidan O'Brien's Queen's Vase winner Illinois emulate some high-class stablemates in the Grand Prix de Paris?