'I think he has a massive chance' - analysis and key trainer insight for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown

Three Card Brag has been all the rage in the early market for this typically competitive handicap chase and it's not hard to see why given he has form behind some of the top novices around from last season.

He split Corbetts Cross and Monty's Star at Fairyhouse in December last year before the latter reversed the form at Punchestown. He wasn't able to close the gap reopposing him at the same track in Grade 1 company in April but again ran a very promising race to finish third behind Spillane's Tower.

He is clearly well handicapped on that form off 148 and had a pretty satisfying pipe-opener for this over hurdles earlier this month. However, all of his wins have come on quite testing ground and he won't get anything like that here.

The Martin Brassil-trained Panda Boy didn't run badly in a messy race in the Munster National in October and has been placed in this race the last two years, while he won't have an issue with fast ground. He ticks plenty of boxes and will likely run his race but his mark continues to creep up without him landing one of these.

Hgranca De Thaix beat the reopposing Perceval Legallois in a competitive novice handicap chase at Punchestown in May when the pair pulled well clear of the field and while the runner-up hasn't advertised the form too well in the interim, it still rates as formidable form. I wouldn't be convinced either want the ground this firm but it shouldn't be too much of an issue for Hgranca De Thaix given he's stepping up to 3m½f for the first time and he would be very high on the shortlist.

Galway Plate winner Pinkerton will love conditions and has held his form nicely since his Ballybrit heroics with a good effort on the Flat at Navan before running Found A Fifty to within two and a quarter lengths at Down Royal, albeit he was receiving a stone. He's hard to knock out of the frame given ground and trip seem ideal.

Midnight Our Fred seems overpriced given he finished runner-up three times in a row at Cheltenham last season and was really impressive when taking apart a 2m4f handicap at Gowran Park when last seen in October.

It wasn't the strongest race and a 9lb rise demands more but he's going the right way and will love the ground.

What they say 

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Three Card Brag, Favori De Champdou, Fakir D'Alene, Mars Harper and Will Do
Three Card Brag still hasn't won over fences, but he's run some big races. He would prefer softer ground and I'm hoping blinkers will sharpen him up. This trip should really suit Will Do. He doesn't do anything in a hurry, but he keeps galloping and we're putting blinkers on him as well. He's got an each-way squeak. Mars Harper ran a big race at Navan and seems to be coming back to himself. Fakir D'Alene was brought down in this race last year when I fancied him to run a big one. He needs to bounce back to some of his old form. Favori De Champdou hasn't run since the spring, but he's got some decent novice form and Josh's [Williamson] claim will be a help.

Perceval Legallois: one of two runners for Gavin CromwellCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Perceval Legallois and Hartur D'Arc
Perceval Legallois has been frustrating but hopefully he could still win a big one off this mark, although he needs things to fall his way. He's had plenty of hard luck and has crept up in the handicap without winning. Hartur D'Arc is reappearing quickly after unseating at Ascot last weekend and could go well if his jumping holds up.

Barry Connell, trainer of Hgranca De Thaix
This has been his target since Punchestown last season. He'll handle the ground and is on a nice mark. He's already won a very competitive handicap chase at Punchestown and that's a race which takes a bit of winning. We're very happy with him and I think he has a massive chance.

John Flavin, trainer of Midnight Our Fred
He'll like the ground and the trip is no problem so we'll see if he's up to this level. He was good at Gowran but it didn't turn out to be the best of races with the way the ground was on the day. He's had a nice break since and is fresh and well.

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