'He has a better chance than the odds suggest' - analysis and trainer quotes for compelling mile handicap

A fascinating handicap in which the well-backed three-year-old Bodorgan seeks to rip up recent trends from the bottom of the weights.

No three-year-old has won this race in the last nine runnings – six have been won by four-year-olds – but the Charlie Hills-trained colt has long looked the type to land a valuable handicap.

An impressive winner of a Newmarket novice last October by four and a quarter lengths from Milteye, Bodorgan again caught the eye when fifth of 11 behind Covey in the fiercely contested Silver Bowl at Haydock last month after finding himself with a mountain to climb from a poor draw.

The winner looks potentially useful and the runner-up Royal Cape also boasts plenty of scope for improvement, so Bodorgan should be able to make a splash here granted normal progress from that seasonal reappearance.

Helm Rock ran a blinder over course and distance last time when second to Indemnify in the Whitsun Cup.

He now competes off a career-high mark of 93 on ground that might prove faster than he appreciates.

Baltimore Boy, a lightly raced four-year-old who looks open to further improvement, is another who might be more effective on a slower surface.

The prolific Autumn Festival has a decent draw for only the second time this season. He has been dropped just 1lb for three defeats in 2023 but gives the impression a mark of 90 is not necessarily beyond him if gaining an easy lead on a track that favours those sort of tactics.

It would be no surprise to see Adam Kirby get him to the front from stall one and the pair could prove difficult to peg back.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained four-year-old New Dimension and David Simcock’s Repertoire are others with chances, while the consistent Maysong is likely to outrun massive odds.

What they say

Daniel Kubler, joint-trainer of Helm Rock
He produced a career-best performance over the course and distance last time. The draw isn’t helpful and the ground is quicker than ideal. I'm hoping the thunderstorms arrive on Saturday, but the forecast suggests they may not come until Sunday. Helm Rock was a bit hard on himself as a young horse but has matured into a real professional now.

David O’Meara, trainer of Autumn Festival
He didn’t run very well at Goodwood last time but his previous performance in the Thirsk Hunt Cup was quite good. A mile is about as far as he wants to go.

Michael Bell, trainer of Baltimore Boy
He’s in good form and has a nice draw in stall three. There's no reason why he shouldn’t run very well. I'm hoping the ground isn’t too lively. I'm told it's not rattling fast and he should be fine on watered good to firm.

Alice Haynes, trainer of Maysong
He’s an ultra-consistent fun horse who goes there in good order. I’m really happy with him and he has a good draw. The jockey takes 7lb off and gets on very well with him. I think he has a better chance than the odds suggest at a track he likes. After all, he was only beaten four lengths at Epsom in a strong handicap last time after daring to go for a run up the rail.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Bodorgan
He ran really well at Haydock. It was a hot race and he had a bad draw – it’s not easy from that type of draw round there. I like him a lot.

Saturday previews:

2.00 York: 'He looks to have a really good chance' - top Irish amateur Jody Townend excited about first British Flat ride   

2.50 Sandown: Will another Battaash or Mitbaahy emerge from the Scurry Stakes?   

3.05 York: Who looks set to benefit most from a strongly run Grand Cup at York?   

3.20 Chester: 'I'll be surprised if anything beats her out of the gates' - can anyone catch in-form front-runner?   

3.40 York: 'Our three all have an ideal profile' - analysis and key quotes for ultra-competitive Macmillan Sprint   

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