'I just hope for a bit of luck' - how will the draw impact this year's Buckingham Palace?

Everyone loves to talk about the draw. It’s one of the favourite excuses for a bad bet: ‘He was drawn on the wrong side and won his race’. You hear it almost every day at Royal Ascot as the track is wide and the fields are big, but where exactly is the best place to be drawn here?

The honest answer is that I don’t know and the draw statistics don’t really tell much of a story either. That’s because either side of the track can be favoured at different times of the week.

Last year’s meeting would suggest it goes in waves, depending on where the fresh ground is deemed. On Tuesday and Wednesday the majority of winners raced middle-to-stands' side, but by the time this race came around the winners were racing in the middle-to-far side.

In 2020, the first four were drawn 26, 22, 16 and 27, the following year 31, 18, 24 and 29, but 12 months ago it was 2, 6, 18 and 25. The moral of the story is don’t be dogmatic about the draw.

Pace might be more important, but even that can be hard to predict, and the Queen Anne on Tuesday was a perfect example. Everyone thought the gallop would be strong with proven front-runners Mutasaabeq and Pogo in the field, yet both were held up.

To confuse things further in this race, a lot of the pace is in the middle. Warrior Brave often goes off fast and he comes from stall 11, while Tylos is another pace angle coming from 15.

Nevertheless, you’d still rather be drawn near to them than not and Unforgotten should be nicely placed in stall 18 for Frankie Dettori, while Northern Express (12) and course specialist Vafortino (19) are also in the middle. Those three are as good a place to start as any.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Gorak
He's been a remarkable horse for us this season and even though he's been put up 19lb for finishing fourth in a Group 2, we still expect him to run a good race on a track and trip that will play to his strengths.

Kevin Philippart De Foy, trainer of Vafortino
I hope the ground doesn't dry out too much, he's slightly better with a bit of juice in it. I'm happy with his draw and with his preparation and he ran very well in the Victoria Cup. I just hope for a bit of luck.

Clive Cox: trainer of Kingdom ComeCredit: Edward Whitaker

Clive Cox, trainer of Kingdom Come
He started the year really well on the all-weather, then didn't quite stretch out to a mile at Newbury. I'm pleased he's back to seven furlongs and I hope he'll go well.

Ross O'Sullivan, trainer of Warrior Brave
The owner was mad keen to have a runner at Royal Ascot, so we're coming over and really looking forward to the day and the experience. He's won his last two races over six furlongs around a bend and this is a straight seven, so it will be a different kettle of fish. I'd be more hopeful than confident, but I'm really looking forward to it.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Croupier
He's a straightforward horse who won well in the Hambleton at York last time. This stiff seven furlongs should suit him, we think he's got a good enough draw and we hope he'll run a big race.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Unforgotten
He ran well at Newbury last time and likes top of the ground. He deserves to take his chance in an open race.

Roger Varian, trainer of Lir Speciale
He's in great form. I'm not sure whether high or low numbers are favoured, but this has been his seasonal target and I'm glad it will be drying out because he loves fast ground. Seven furlongs at a track like Ascot should be right up his street.

Michael Dods, trainer of Northern Express
It's very competitive but he deserves his chance. He's in good form; he ran well at Ascot last year and he should get the fast pace that he needs.

Tim Palin of Middleham Park Racing, owners of The Gatekeeper
Good-to-firm ground and a strongly run seven furlongs is him playing at home. Will there be horses in there with a bit more handicap wiggle room? Potentially yes, though I don’t think he’s thoroughly exposed.
Reporting by David Carr

Read more of Thursday's previews:

'All winter he’s been the one we hoped would be top of the tree' - who rates his Norfolk runner so highly?

'We pencilled him in for this straight after his win' - powerhouse trainers take aim at King George V Stakes

Hot Ribblesdale favourite Al Asifah 'could be anything' as she bids to cement growing reputation

'We've talked about this for a year' - key trainer quotes for a wide-open Gold Cup

'I'm very hot on him' - expert analysis and trainer insight for 30-runner Britannia

'He’s a proper horse' - who is looking forward to his runner stepping up in trip?