'I expect him to run a massive race' - who fancies their chances in the Ultima?

Tuesday: 2.50 CheltenhamUltima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) | 3m1f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

The reason there has not been an Irish-trained winner of the Ultima since 2006 is similar to the reason there has been no such winner of the bet365 Gold Cup since 2010 or of the Scottish National in living memory. There are plenty of equivalent prizes in Ireland during the spring to keep the most interesting sorts at home.

An exception is made for the Grand National, for fairly obvious reasons, and it might be assumed that the same is true of this race to a degree given it is run at Cheltenham. Yet the facts do not bear that out. Since 2010 there have been 23 Irish-trained runners in this race, compared with 21 at Ayr and 14 at Sandown.

Perhaps emboldened by last year's Cheltenham haul, Irish trainers have seven of the 24 Ultima runners this year, making it a significant outlier. Ireland might be about to break the dam by sheer weight of numbers.

Ominously, the ante-post favourite Death Duty is perhaps only the third or fourth-most compelling of the Irish cohort. Noble Yeats and Floueur are both novices, while Ben Dundee was second in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown when last seen. Death Duty is 11 and the form on which he is well enough treated to win this is almost five years old.

The Ultima is admittedly a race that is friendly to veterans more than most at Cheltenham. But it is still novices who do best of all and the concentration of such horses is high this year. Aside from a couple of Irish novices mentioned above, leading British hopes such as Does He Know, Fantastikas, Corach Rambler and Gericault Roque also fit the bill.

Corach Rambler is of particular interest, as he looked set to give Does He Know a race before unseating Derek Fox five out in the Reynoldstown. He was favourite that day and receives 9lb more now.

Another novice to note is Kiltealy Briggs. Prominent racers do inordinately well over fences at Cheltenham irrespective of field size and Kiltealy Briggs has looked much more polished in his second season over fences. He has some pretty good form to his name too, and if he gives Adrian Heskin a similar spin to what he has been delivering for much of this season, it is hard to see him being far away.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Does He or doesn't he?

You have to go back to the end of the last century to find the last time Kim Bailey won what was formerly known as the Ritz Club, although he has had placed runners since then.

Betty's Boy landed the spoils for the local trainer in 1999 but he was a ten-year-old and some way removed from the novice status of likely favourite Does He Know.

Does He Know: ante-post favourite bids to follow up his Reynoldstown win for Kim BaileyCredit: Edward Whitaker

The seven-year-old won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot last time when rain during racing made it a proper stamina test.

Bailey said: "Does He Know seems to go on any ground, so we're hopeful of a nice run, but my only caveat would be how hard a race he had at Ascot last time.

"It's his first time in a handicap, which is a big ask, and the big field will be new to him as he's only ever run against seven or eight horses before."

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Frodon
Hopefully with a couple of drying days the ground will be good to soft, which will be ideal for him. He's won at the track before off this mark but it's a tough race. If he ran up to his King George and Down Royal form he'd be bang there and he seems to have come right now.

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of Lostintranslation and Oscar Elite
Lostintranslation is a bit hit and miss at the moment but as he's got older I think he's become more ground dependent, so a bit of decent ground will really suit him. We're putting cheekpieces on for the first time and, if he runs like he did at Ascot in the autumn, he's entitled to be there. On his Albert Bartlett form I think Oscar Elite is well handicapped. He lost his confidence a bit after falling at Cheltenham but he's dropped to a workable mark and this is his first time back over a trip that he wants. He just needs to get into a nice rhythm.

Andy Lynch, trainer of Ben Dundee
I expect him to run a massive race as long as the ground doesn't get too soft. He has a lovely racing weight and has form around the track, and we're absolutely delighted with how he has been training.

Emmet Mullins, trainer of Noble Yeats
He's in great form. Sam [Waley-Cohen] has been over and has had a sit on him. He was happy when he left, so that's a positive. Hopefully he'll run a big race.

Tom Lacey, trainer of Tea Clipper
He seems in good order but we need it to dry up a bit as his best form is on good ground. My main concern is the going above the opposition.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Floueur and Death Duty
Death Duty looks nicely treated. It was great to see him bounce back at Punchestown and he seems to be in great order. It was a nice first handicap run for Floueur in that race at Punchestown. He ran well here last year and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him involved in the finish.

Sam Twiston-Davies, rider of Fantastikas
He's a novice in a handicap but hopefully he can keep improving and take a hand in a tough race. It was heavy ground when he won at Lingfield last time but he's fairly versatile in that regard.

Henry Daly, trainer of Rapper
He's improved with every run and will appreciate a strongly run race and a stiff track, but whether he's good enough is another question.

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Discordantly
He was sixth in this race last year and has probably gone over in better form than ever. He travelled over great and the ground should be perfect for him. He won a nice pot at Leopardstown just over a week ago and it was very hard to leave a race like that behind us. We've done very little with him since and, while he has a 5lb penalty, we think he has a good chance.

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Kiltealy Briggs
He's had a great season and has been winning over two and a half miles but ran well to be third behind Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor in a Grade 1 at Kempton on Boxing Day. Being out of a sister to a Grand National winner, I expect stamina to be his forte and you'd hope there would be some mileage in his handicap mark stepping up in trip.

Gary Moore, trainer of Full Back
He's got a nice racing weight. It's not going to be easy with that amount of runners but hopefully he's got a reasonable chance. He's won at the track before and hopefully he'll give a good account.

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Corach Rambler
The key thing is that he's a course winner off a very light weight, which plays to his strengths, but he's a novice going in against seasoned handicappers. He may lack a bit of experience but he goes there with a decent each-way chance.

Sam Thomas, trainer of Our Power
He ran on well at the finish after losing his position at Kempton last time and we know he stays well, so he should appreciate this trip. One negative would be the ground as he wouldn't it any softer.

David Pipe, trainer of Gericault Roque
He's 5lb out of the handicap which is not ideal but he ran well in the Classic Chase last time and he'll stay well. He's got no weight and has been doing well this season for a six-year-old. He'll have to up his game again but he warrants taking his chance.
Reporting by David Milnes

Tuesday's Cheltenham Festival previews:

1.30 Cheltenham: 'Jonbon has been flawless' – Nicky Henderson on his scintillating Supreme duo

2.10 Cheltenham: 'We'll see if he's good enough' – big British hope Edwardstone takes on Irish

3.30 Cheltenham: 'She's actually in mighty form' – De Bromhead delighted with champ Honeysuckle

4.10 Cheltenham: Telmesomethinggirl bids for another festival triumph in wide-open Mares' Hurdle

4.50 Cheltenham: 'He looks nicely treated' – Paul Townend puts up Gaelic Warrior as best chance

5.30 Cheltenham: 'He looks tailor-made for this' – key quotes and insight for National Hunt Chase

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