'I dare say he'll take a bit of pegging back' - top analysis and quotes for the Grand Annual

While Chris Gordon no doubt had sound reasons for running Betfair Hurdle winner Aucunrisque in Friday's County Hurdle over the Grand Annual, in doing so he has given up on a fairly strong angle for the older, more valuable race.

Since 2010, horses in handicap chases at the Cheltenham Festival who ran in a hurdles race the time before have had a fine record. As can be seen in the graphic, in terms of both strike-rates and wins relative to market expectation they have performed nearly twice as well as the average.

Global Citizen did his bit for that angle last year when winning this race after a hurdles run. He comes in off a similar prep this time as does Dads Lad, who had Editeur Du Gite behind him when winning over course-and-distance in October.

The hurdles stats most likely hint the truth that many will think is obvious that horses laid out for Cheltenham handicaps tend to perform well, and having a prep run over hurdles is an indicator of being laid out. Half of this field has probably been laser-targeted at the race more than would have been the case with Aucunrisque.

The other curiosity in this year's Grand Annual is the quality of the field. More than a dozen horses were balloted out this year and the effective ratings floor of 139 is unusually high. Handicaps which are harder to get into tend to be less competitive, as the less exposed sorts are more likely to miss out.

That is good news for Andy Dufresne, who was an on-the-day gamble last year from the same mark he races off today. He was second then to Global Citizen, who would not have got into this year's race off last year's mark of 136.

Global Citizen has again snuck in at the foot of the weights. He benefited from an aggressive ride on soft ground last year and has conditions in place for another bold sight. With so few new faces in this year's Grand Annual field, the principals from 12 months ago could well have a big say again.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Punters banking on roles to be reversed

It was something of a surprise when 28-1 shot Global Citizen beat 3-1 favourite Andy Dufresne last year and punters seem not to think history will repeat itself.

The winner is an outsider 12 months on ahead of his bid to become the first horse to win this traditionally tough handicap two years running since Top Twenty scored in 1958 and 1959.

His form this season would not have had many rushing to back him. He lost his confidence and been pulled up in a chase at Worcester in September, he was a remote seventh behind Hewick in the Grand National Hurdle in the USA and then finished last of four in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last month.

Global Citizen won the Grand Annual last season

His trainer Ben Pauling said: "He's in the form to do it again and the ground will be in his favour. He'd had very little prep for the race at Wincanton and he hung onto their tails for a long way. He got tired up the home straight but he'd only been cantering for a fortnight properly.

"He's 11 but if he gets a good start and gets into a rhythm I dare say he'll take a bit of pegging back."

Global Citizen is 3lb higher in the handicap this year whereas Andy Dufresne races off the same mark and may be in the form to take advantage, judged on heavy recent market support.

He races in a tongue strap for the first time and trainer Gordon Elliott said: "Andy Dufresne was second in the race last year and we've decided to give him another crack at it. Hopefully he can return to the sort of form he was in last year, but he does need to step up on what he's done so far this season."

What they say

Gordon Elliott, also trainer of Call Me Lyreen and Battleoverdoyen
Battloverdoyen should give Jordan [Gainford, jockey] a good spin around, while Call Me Lyreen is a dark one. I wouldn't be surprised to see him outrunning his odds.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Final Orders
He's in great nick. The track will be absolutely fine for him as he is such a good jumper and he's a handy little horse, so should be well able to whizz around. I would just have preferred a bit of better ground. It's been an unbelievable season with him so hopefully he can run a good, solid race.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Third Time Lucki
He's effective round the track, which counts for a good bit. Drying weather will be beneficial. He's in great form.

Peter Niven, trainer of Malystic
The figures show his Doncaster win was good form and the ground was quick enough for him at Newbury next time. I don't think this ground will bother him and we'll give it a shot.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of A Wave Of The Sea and Midnight Run
A Wave Of The Sea is a remarkably consistent horse and ran well at Leopardstown. We would be hoping for a good run again as he's very reliable in these big two-mile handicaps. Midnight Run has been running in some very good novice races this season and he's dropping into a handicap now. He probably hasn’t a whole lot to hide from the handicapper, but he’s in good form and wouldn't mind soft ground either.

Joseph O'Brien: saddles two runnersCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Elixir De Nutz
I thought he put in a cracking run at Newbury on quick enough ground. He’s got Grade 2 form coming into a handicap and arguably he’s in the best form of his life. It’s very competitive but he comes into it in rude health and if he continues to run as he has been then he’s got a live chance.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Thyme White
I kept him fresh all winter for this because he's brilliant when he's like that and he won at Ascot first time out this season. But what he doesn't want is the ground too soft, so that's a bit of a negative.

Sam Thomas, trainer of Before Midnight
He's one that wouldn't want the rain. He's not really proven on softer ground, but we'd be delighted if he can hit the frame.

David Pipe, trainer of Sizing Pottsie
The ground has come right for him, he loves soft ground. He’s dropped in the ratings and if he comes back to the form he showed at the start of the season then he’d be in with a squeak.
Reporting by David Carr

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