'Hopefully she can bag the rail and do the business' - key analysis and trainer quotes for the Brocklesby

Few races achieve the Brocklesby's level of fame without ever being on the Pattern. It is the race with the most unseen build-up. Even the craftiest plot job for the Martin Pipe at the festival shows a lot more in the months leading up to the race than the Brocklesby winner will.

As fashions bend towards breeding more precocious horses, it stands that the Brocklesby should get stronger. However, the ratings don't suggest this, with Racing Post Ratings standards for the race having remained consistent over the last 15 years.

What can be said with confidence is that the race casts a long shadow. In the coming weeks, it is all but guaranteed that several winners will emerge, both from the principals and from further back in the field.

The graphic below shows that over 15 per cent of runners from the Brocklesby win in March, April and May, and more than half finish in the first three. These are good strike-rates but far from unexpected. The market more than allows for this edge. There have been 47 subsequent winners since 2010, when from SPs you would have expected around 65.

Brocklesby runners through spring

Less coverage is given to how far the Brocklesby's echo is heard. We know that by Royal Ascot its influence is waning, but graduates from the race can make an impact there, such Chipotle and Persian Force.

The statistics, which include over 300 runs since 2010, show something unexpected. Yes, the strike-rate of horses who ran in the Brocklesby takes a downward turn as June looms and talent starts to surpass precocity. There is also a suggestion that there is such a thing as too early for these inexperienced two-year-olds to be seen out again.

Before mid-April, the strike-rate of those who ran in the Brocklesby is a sound but less-than-sizzling 13.3 per cent. Only in the second half of April does it peak, with 20.9 per cent winning, and this continues with a 17.6 per cent strike-rate in the first half of May.

You could infer from those figures that the Brocklesby is a hard race for young horses. That would back up the idea that it is the savviest and most-readied, rather than necessarily the best, who win the race.

In soft ground at Doncaster, the need for street-smarts will only be greater. It is no surprise that Amo Racing's Mystical Elegance has been appointed as the early favourite. Also look out for Atherstone Warrior. He has a soft-ground pedigree and trainer Alice Haynes held a 42 per cent strike-rate (8-19) with her two-year-olds in April and May last year.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Alice Haynes, trainer of Atherstone Warrior
Like all the runners he's very unexposed, but he'll love the softer conditions. We hope to have a bit of fun with him and he seems to be going well at home.

Adrian Keatley, trainer of Dukes Of Haather
He's going well. He may be more of a six- or seven-furlong horse in the future, but he's forward and has a great mind. He's ready for a day at the races. He's been on the grass at home and handled softer ground well and we're hoping the same on the track, while his dam [Dutch S] ran a nice race on soft. The Dutch Art side of his family should hopefully help him handle conditions too.

Darryll Holland, trainer of Paddy's Courage
She was meant to run in France on Thursday but the ground was very heavy and the logistics were too difficult. She's got a bit of talent and has had a racecourse gallop. She's very professional and is as at least as good as Primrose Ridge, who was second for us in this two years ago.

Darryll Holland: trainer of Paddy's CourageCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Craig Lidster, trainer of Ettorino
He's doing well. He's a nice little horse but the question is whether he'll handle the ground. It'll be a big educational day for him and I hope he can conduct himself well. He's got a good head on his shoulders and he'll travel away, but it's whether he can finish off strongly in that ground.

Dylan Cunha, trainer of Zminiature
He's forward and fast, but I'm not sure whether at this stage of his career he'll stay five furlongs on that testing ground. However, he's been doing nothing wrong at home and seems very straight and forward. He's got place chances.

Dominic Ffrench Davis, trainer of Mystical Elegance
It's hard to tell where the juveniles are at, but she looks lovely. Robson [Aguiar, bloodstock consignor] said to me she's sharp and he isn't wrong. She should handle the ground and I'm not too concerned about the draw [in stall 15] either. Hopefully she can get out and bag the rail then do the business.

Amy Murphy, trainer of Theatrically
She's in good form. It's a big field but I don't think that will bother her and she'll go through the ground too. Soft ground should be fine for her as she wants to go further in trip in time, so it'll suit her if it becomes a stamina test.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

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