'He's taken his form to a new level' - can Stage Star follow up his Cheltenham Festival win at Aintree?

It has taken 12 years since the introduction of the Turners Novices' Chase for a winner of the race to run in its Aintree equivalent, the Manifesto. That has something to do with the Turners being dominated by Irish-trained horses, who have a natural next target at Fairyhouse. But it also says something about the bold race-planning of Paul Nicholls.

Turners winner Stage Star is just as strong an advertisement for his jockey Harry Cobden as his trainer. Cobden gave him one of the rides of the festival, a lesson in controlled aggression at the head of the race. The seven-year-olds' bold jumping ought to hold him in good stead again, but dictating can be harder to pull off at Aintree, where races are often decided on the long, flat run between the last two fences.

His rivals might therefore fancy their chances. None of them arrives into this race off the back of a win, but remarkably no previous winner of the Manifesto had triumphed on their previous start either. Also, all of today's challengers were beaten last time by the season's outstanding novice chaser, El Fabiolo.

Banbridge was second in the Irish Arkle and was pulled out of the Turners on account of soft ground. With rain forecast, his connections will presumably be watching the skies nervously once more. Saint Roi was placed in the Arkle at Cheltenham, a race that has produced just as many Manifesto winners as the Turners.

Visionarian and Straw Fan Jack had much more distant views of El Fabiolo when last seen, so the race most likely concerns the top three in the betting. The difficulty is guessing which of the three, all of whom have run their best races at Cheltenham, will suit Aintree most. 

A horse that can jump two out still on the bridle has a clear edge here, which might favour former Champion Hurdle third Saint Roi, but in small-field affairs tactics should never be far from the front of the mind and Cobden has few equals in that regard. Expect fireworks.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Joseph O’Brien, trainer of Banbridge
He's in good shape. The better the ground the better chance he has. When we took him out of the Turners this was the logical next target for him and he's prepared well for the race.

Willie Mullins, trainer of Saint Roi
He's good. He ran well in the Arkle and I think the track at Aintree will actually suit him better.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Stage Star
As with all the horses, as long as he's got over Cheltenham and runs to form he should have a lovely chance. He seems well. He's progressive, he has to go left-handed and he's taken his form to a new level the last twice.

Sheila Lewis, trainer of Straw Fan Jack
It was a toss-up between the Turners and the Arkle at Cheltenham. It looked like he needed a bit further in the Arkle, he was running on strong. It’s a small-runner race with really good prize-money, so someone has to have a go at a bit of a price, don’t they? We’re an outsider and have a lower rating, but anything can happen in these novice races.

Peter Fahey, trainer of Visionarian
He looks like he’s got a decent chance on a line through Saint Roi from their clash at Leopardstown over Christmas. The step up in trip will definitely suit, as will the track, and he’s fresh given he didn’t go to Cheltenham either. We’re hoping for a big run.
Reporting by Harry Wilson

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