'Dominant' Bradsell out to complete Group 1 sprint hat-trick in Abbaye - but Believing camp have reason to hope she can reverse form

The draw bias could hardly be more pronounced on Longchamp’s five furlong track and the last three renewals of the Prix de l'Abbaye have seen Perdika, White Lavender and Air De Valse hit the crossbar from stalls one or two at huge odds.

Last year’s winning favourite, Highfield Princess, was a class apart when overcoming stall 14 but many before her, including Battaash, Glass Slippers and Suesa, have been undone by double-figure draws when short-priced favourites.

While stall nine isn’t disastrous for this year’s long-time favourite Bradsell, he’s drawn higher than ideal in his Group 1 hat-trick bid. Archie Watson’s colt has been on the right end of draw biases in the Nunthorpe and the Flying Five while the runner-up in those contests, Believing, had the worse of the draw both times. Stall five for George Boughey’s filly this time could be the key to her turning the tables.

If there’s value to be found in the lower draws, the well-backed Grand Grey (one) is a good place to start. He was a big eyecatcher over this course and distance last time in Group 3 company, denied a clear run at a crucial stage. But his hold-up style will leave him a hostage to fortune again.

Perhaps more interestingly, Starlust (two) was beaten only a length in Bradsell’s Nunthorpe and might have finished a little closer had his jockey not dropped a rein 100 yards from home. He’s another that has been furnished with a more favourable draw to reverse form with Bradsell.

In 2022, The Platinum Queen became the first juvenile to win this race since Sigy’s success in 1978 but neither of the two-year-olds in this year’s renewal haS an easy task from a double-figure draw.
Analysis by Phill Anderson

Aiming for history

What a star. Bradsell is out to make sprinting history this afternoon and become the first horse to win the top five-furlong race in Britain, Ireland and France in the same season.

Victory today would make him only the fifth Nunthorpe Stakes winner in the last 40 years to go on to land the Prix de l'Abbaye six weeks later, after the top-class Lochsong (1993), Dayjur (1990), Handsome Sailor (1988) and Committed (1984).

But none of that quartet also took the Flying Five Stakes (which was first run in 1985) at the Curragh in between, so Bradsell's Group 1 hat-trick would be unprecedented.

Bradsell got the better of Believing once again in the Flying Five StakesCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

And what makes his potential achievement all the more remarkable is that last year's King's Stand Stakes winner fractured a fetlock in February, causing trainer Archie Watson to fear his racing career might be over.

Instead, he returned to score in Listed company at Deauville in August before beating Believing by three-quarters of a length at York and having the same rival a length and a quarter back in second when taking his earnings past £1 million with another success in Ireland.

He had the better of the draw in the Nunthorpe and the Flying Five but Hollie Doyle, who has ridden Bradsell in the last ten of his 11 career starts, said on Saturday: "I think he's just been very dominant. It will be interesting to see how he fares tomorrow but he's a bit of a star and he never does much wrong.

"He's been ultra-consistent this year. Usually with sprinters you can run a race a few times and get a different result but he's been pretty dominant." 

What they say

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Starlust
He has a bit to find but he has a good draw in stall two – and we know the draw is a great leveller in the Abbaye.

Clive Cox, trainer of Kerdos
We're looking forward to it. He's in excellent form and I'm happy with his draw in stall three. He's travelled over well and I hope he has luck in running.

Tom Clover, trainer of Rogue Lightning
He's in great form. We've put blinkers on him to help him travel a bit. Fingers crossed for a really good run. He ran a good race there a few weeks ago and he ran very well in this race last year from a difficult draw.

Ed Walker, trainer of Makarova
Although it will be her eighth run of the year, she's in cracking shape. She ran a blinder when third in the Flying Five at the Curragh, earning her highest ever Racing Post rating. She ran very well in the Abbaye on quicker ground last year, beaten under two lengths behind Highfield Princess. She doesn't need to improve too much to win one of these.

Richard Hughes, trainer of No Half Measures
She's been brilliant, way above what we ever thought. She's been a superstar. I'd love a good shower of rain in the morning to slow them all down a stride and it's not the best draw in 12, but they can win from out there.

Harry Herbert, managing director of Highclere Thoroughbreds, owners of Believing
At last she's got a no-excuse draw [stall five], for the first time this season. I'd love the ground to dry out but she seems in great form and if she reproduces the form she's been showing this year she should be very competitive.
Reporting by David Carr

Read more of Sunday's previews:

12.55 Longchamp: 'This will be a different test' - will unbeaten Zarigana handle the heat of Arc day in the Marcel Boussac? 

1.30 Longchamp: 'We think he might be ready to run a career-best' - who is in good shape to take on Solario star Field Of Gold? 

3.20 Longchamp: 'We said if there's one race this season we want him to be bang on for, it's the Arc' - top trainers on their Longchamp contenders 

4.40 Longchamp: 'He loves it round Longchamp' - can Kinross reclaim his Prix de la Foret crown? 

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