'He's improving and has a definite chance' - key quotes for big-field handicap

Saturday: 3.00 Ascot
Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) | Class 2 | 7f | 3yo+ | ITV/Sky

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the International Stakes used to habitually fill the maximum field size of 29. In the last three years, the low 20s have become more common.

It is still too early to tell if lopping a quarter of the runners off the field has had a significant effect on the race. Early indications suggest that runners still need to exceed their BHA mark by 11lb on Racing Post Ratings, a level that has remained remarkably steady in recent years.

The draw at Ascot remains maddeningly unpredictable, at least pre-racing, although the percentage call still appears to be siding with those drawn high.

The last two winners have returned as SP favourite. There is some logical basis for that observation, in that smaller fields should be somewhat easier to predict. But it almost goes without saying that backing favourites blind will not prove a profitable strategy.

This year's Royal Ascot offered up a couple of factors that should draw your attention when looking at big-field handicaps at the track. First, the form from that meeting is working out well virtually across the board and needs to be respected. The second is that those with form over further tend to perform best, with the caveat that they need to travel comfortably over the shorter trip.

The second point rather narrows down the numbers and would favour, say, Hunt Cup winner Dark Shift over Wokingham third Jumby. As it happens, the Hunt Cup form has worked out extremely well so far. Of those who finished in the top ten, four have run since. Sinjaari won the Coral Challenge, Intellogent was third in the John Smith's Cup, Isla Kai was fourth at York (ran to a higher RPR) and Bless Him, who runs here under a penalty, won the Bunbury Cup.

Dark Shift and Bless Him are two of the three Hunt Cup runners in this field. The other is tenth-placed Aratus. He is unexposed after just eight career starts and has fared much better than the result suggests in good handicaps here the last twice. In the Victoria Cup he was on the wrong side (first four drawn 27, 26, 28 and 13; he was in nine) and much the same was true in the Hunt Cup.

The only other two from his side to get close were Sinjaari and Bless Him. Aratus is due a change of luck and stall 16 might bring it, and bring him into line with those two as a subsequent big-handicap winner.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Chiefofchiefs 'deserves a big one'

Advancing years have not lessened the ability of Chiefofchiefs, who bids for a much-deserved big-race success.

The nine-year-old finished two places behind Ropey Guest, who he meets again, when fourth of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.

That was probably as good a performance as Chiefofchiefs has delivered during a 40-race career and trainer Charlie Fellowes believes he returns to Berkshire in the best possible shape.

Chiefofchiefs (pink): Charlie Fellowes believes he deserves a 'big one'Credit: Julian Finney

“He ran a blinder in the Buckingham Palace, drawn on the ‘wrong’ side,” Fellowes said. “He finished in great style after being switched.

“We’re drawn 15 this time and I wouldn’t swap it. Sadly, we’ve lost Jamie Spencer, who has got to ride Bless Him, but we’ve got Colin Keane who is a very able deputy.”

Chiefofchiefs has been knocking hard on the door in valuable Ascot handicaps for quite some time - he also finished a close fourth to Rohaan in last year’s Wokingham - and Fellowes added: “He fully deserves a big one. He’s as good as he’s ever been. He looks a picture.”

What they say

Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Accidental Agent and Jumby
They both ran well in the Bunbury Cup and both are in great form. We’re putting the cheekpieces on Jumby after he veered off a straight line at Newmarket. If he’d kept straight that day he would have won.

James Fanshawe, trainer of Fresh
He likes Ascot and has run well there on good to firm, but I’m hoping for a few showers to ease the ground. He seems in good form.

George Boughey, trainer of Air To Air
He’s the stable favourite. He had a setback after one of those Racing League races at Windsor last summer, and we only got him back to the track last month. It’s a great credit to my staff that he came back and won so well at Yarmouth. His work is improving with each week and, while he needs to step up again, he goes to Ascot with a definite chance. He’s a horse you have to ride with nerves of steel and drop him in - it’s up to Rossa Ryan now.

George Margarson, trainer of Ropey Guest
Any rain won’t bother him; he’s a very versatile horse. In fact, a bit of juice may work in his favour as it may not suit some of the others. He’s come out of his Newmarket second in the Bunbury Cup very well. He seems to be drawn with the right crew, and Callum Hutchinson takes 5lb off. He’s capable of winning a valuable race like this one when everything falls into place for him. I could have won more races with him by campaigning him in lesser races, but there is so much prize-money to be gained by tackling these valuable handicaps. It’s a no-brainer.

Michael Dods, trainer of Northern Express
He is in good form, but it's ultra-competitive once again. His best form seems to be at York when he comes up against a bit of a bend, but he is well. He needs a fast gallop to aim at.
Race reporting by Richard Birch

Read Saturday's race previews:

1.50 Ascot: 'There’s no such thing as a penalty kick' - Lezoo camp wary of unexposed rivals

2.05 York: Can Harry Cobden grab the bragging rights in jump jockeys' Nunthorpe?

2.40 York: Keith Melrose explains how the draw could help solve York's Dash Handicap puzzle

3.15 York: Will Claymore prove his class for Jane CHapple-Hyam and down Dubai Honour?

3.35 Ascot: King George insight as Westover and Emily Upjohn face top-class rivals

King George analysis: Why the older horses have been underestimated against their younger opponents (£)