'He's improving all the time' - find out who reckons they can beat Baaeed

Tuesday: 2.30 Royal Ascot
Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) | 1m | 4yo+ | ITV/Sky

The real royal procession on the first day of Royal Ascot is often half an hour after the one that ends up on the News At Six. In six out of the last ten years, the favourite for the opening Queen Anne has gone off at 11-8 or shorter and the only one of them to be turned over was Animal Kingdom in 2013.

Real hotpots like Frankel and Palace Pier do not prove much. More interesting are the likes of Solow and Ribchester, the first among equals that are often the sign of a division lacking in depth.

Until the three-year-olds step up, which only becomes necessary after today's St James's Palace, there is often only room for one top-notcher among the milers. The reasons are easy enough to infer, the call of the breeding sheds being top of the list and the reason why Palace Pier, Poetic Flare or even St Mark's Basilica do not line up against Baaeed here.

Only Frankel has gone off shorter than Baaeed's projected odds in this race and that is not only because Baaeed himself is probably the best miler we have seen in a decade. It also tells of the shortcomings in the division.

While six have turned up to face Baaeed here, only two are legitimate Group 1 horses on all known evidence. Accidental Agent won this four years ago but runs in handicaps now. Sir Busker is a lower Group-level performer, as is Chindit to a lesser extent. Lights On could improve to become competitive in sex-restricted Group 1s but is still a handful of pounds off on ratings.

The competition left is Order Of Australia and Real World. Even the first of those might be forgiven for feeling a bit of impostor syndrome. He won the Breeders' Cup Mile at huge odds in 2020 and the only time he matched that level in 2021 was winning a Group 2 at the Curragh.

Real World is the only realistic hope for those looking to get after Baaeed but a rewatch of the Lockinge, in which he was beaten over three lengths and without Baaeed needing to engage the after-burners, makes the scale of the task obvious.

There is hope for Real World to at least make this more competitive. The Lockinge was his first run since connections had tried, and failed, for a second time to establish him as a dirt horse. He is simply much better on turf and he showed it when winning the Royal Hunt Cup by nearly five lengths on his turf debut a year ago. At Newbury he raced on his own from quite a way out and shaped like a clear second-best, to a greater extent than the result could show.

But even fans like me must admit that a clear second best is all Real World can be here. Barring a significant underperformance from Baaeed, to the tune of perhaps half a stone or more on Racing Post Ratings, he will extend his unbeaten run and hold on to his position as racing's hottest property.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Haggas always felt fast ground would be in Baaeed's favour

Baaeed has soared to the top of the world rankings at a time when racecourses have not been their usual happy throng, and the 25,000 who witnessed his defeat of Palace Pier in last season's QEII Stakes is by far his biggest audience to date.

A general price of 2-7 about the son of Sea The Stars extending his dominance to a perfect eight wins tells you this should be pretty one-sided but with an anticipated crowd of 45,000 roaring Baaeed on, European racing's brightest star should get the ovation he so richly deserves.

In terms of ground conditions, Baaeed will arguably get his quickest ground since winning at Newmarket last July, although a penultimate furlong of 10.77 seconds in the Prix du Moulin suggests conditions were pretty rapid at Longchamp, despite the official reading of good to soft.

Trainer William Haggas said: "I've always felt he would be okay on fast ground. His new position in the rankings is a bigger deal for the press than it is for me, but he's obviously good.

"We've got lots of runners and lots going on this week so I don't really know if it's an advantage to have him going first. It's going to be a long week if he doesn't win but what will be will be."

Jim Crowley has the enviable task of deciding when to unleash Baaeed's turn of foot.

"I haven't sat on him since Newbury, but Michael Hills rides him in all his work and seems very happy with him," he said.

Real World 'not without hope' in rematch with Baaeed

If there was one other horse trained in Britain who made nearly as much eyecatching progress in the second half of the season as Baaeed, it was surely Real World.

Godolphin's son of Dark Angel began his rise when landing the Royal Hunt Cup over this course and distance and finished off the year when running down The Revenant in a Group 2 at Longchamp.

Saeed bin Suroor has been pleased with Real World since finishing second in the Al Shaqab Lockinge StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Saeed bin Suroor campaigned Real World on dirt over the winter but after drawing a line under that failed experiment, the five-year-old produced an excellent effort back on turf when pulling clear of everything not named Baaeed at Newbury.

"Real World has done well since the Lockinge and I was pleased with his most recent piece of work," said Bin Suroor. "He's coming up against a superstar in Baaeed again but the stiff mile at Ascot suits him well. He gets further, so a strong pace would suit him and he's improving all the time, so I'm not without hope."

Straight mile is right up Chindit's street

The bookmakers are certainly convinced the Lockinge form is the best on offer and third-placed Chindit is next in the market.

The four-year-old posted a career-high Racing Post Rating of 116 at Newbury and while Richard Hannon does not expect his contender to make up the five lengths he finished behind Baaeed that day, he is hopeful of a bold show from Chindit, whose best runs have tended to come over a straight mile.

"He probably ran the race of his life in the Lockinge last time where he finished a very creditable third to Baaeed but you have to be realistic about things because it's going to be incredibly hard to turn the tables here," said Hannon.

"But he's already proved he's a Group 1 horse and we might as well give it another shot because he has a lovely attitude, always tries his best and the straight mile at this course is right up his street."

What they say

Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Accidental Agent
He's run two great races this year, he loves it at Ascot and we're there to give it a go. Baaeed will obviously be very difficult to beat and we're all running for second place. On official ratings I can't see why he won't be there or therabouts. There's every reason to believe he's in the mix for second.

Accidental Agent and Charlie Bishop en route to Group 1 glory at Royal AscotCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Order Of Australia
He's in good form. He was only beaten a length and a half by Baaeed in France last year, and he just got injured on his last run. He hasn't started yet this year but we're happy with everything he's done.

William Knight, trainer of Sir Busker
He likes Ascot and he's in great nick at home. He was third in this last year. There's no reason why he can't run up to that level of form again and if he does, he's got a good chance of being in the first three. The older he's got, the more I think he wants faster ground.

Chris Richardson, racing manager to Cheveley Park Stud, owners of Lights On
She likes slightly easier ground and it played to her advantage at Sandown, where they'd put plenty of water on. She's come out of the race very well and I watched her work nicely on Saturday. We have no expectations of beating Baaeed but as a Group 2 winner she deserves to be there.
Reporting by Scott Burton

Tuesday at Royal Ascot:

3.05 Ascot: 'I really do believe he's the real deal' - Hannon excited about Coventry chance

3.40 Ascot: Golden Pal v Nature Strip: Wesley Ward and Chris Waller on their sprint stars

4.20 Ascot: Charlie Appleby bullish over 2,000 Guineas hero Coroebus in St James's Palace

5.00 Ascot: Royal Ascot or Cheltenham? It's Mullins v Elliott again in Ascot Stakes

5.35 Ascot: 'Hopefully he has a big chance' - Juan Elcano bids for a second Wolferton win

6.10 Ascot: is Aidan O'Brien's runner a handicap blot in the Copper Horse?

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