'He's his best ride of the week' - is Gaillard Du Mesnil a class apart in National Hunt Chase?
The fact that the National Hunt Challenge Cup takes place at the Cheltenham Festival means it might have developed the way it has in the last decade anyway, but you would struggle to argue that this race has benefitted from an upgrade to Listed and then Grade 2 level.
Winners like Minella Rocco, Tiger Roll and Stattler look good on a roll of honour, but it is a race that is losing its competitive edge. Fields of 20 or more were the norm before 2010, with winning performances typically around 140 on Racing Post Ratings. Increasingly, this race is now used by the super stables as overflow from the Brown Advisory. As a result many good handicappers are no longer bothering to turn up.
You would hope that this year's field of ten represents some sort of reversion to the mean, after last year's six served up a strong winner but a tame spectacle. Even so, the combined might of the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards take up similarly dominant chunks of the betting. Last year their runners held two-thirds of the market at starting prices. In this year's race, at the time of writing, it is more like three-quarters.
A lot of that is down to Gaillard Du Mesnil. Not only is his form position dominant, but a couple of the likelier prospective challengers, Ramillies and City Chief, have stayed away at least partly because they represent the same owner.
At last year's festival, on rain-softened ground, Gaillard Du Mesnil was just over five lengths behind L'Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory. He was third in the Irish Grand National a month later and this has been his aim since. He won a 3m Grade 1 at Christmas and either side of that has been placed behind Mighty Potter in races down in trip.
It all points to a top-level novice punching below his weight, which is almost certainly what Gaillard Du Mesnil represents. Those opposing him will likely do so for one of two reasons. First of all, he has a much better record of placing than winning. Second, he travelled better than he finished in both the Brown Advisory and Irish National.
If the market is to find one alternative, the Elliott-trained Chemical Energy is most likely. He is unexposed, having run over staying trips when race-fit only once. That was here in October, when he beat Mahler Mission by 61 lengths. Clearly, that was not the real Mahler Mission and Chemical Energy remains a significant unknown quantity, albeit one that his trainer has treated like many of his previous winners of this race.
The National Hunt Chase used to be a finishing school for spring marathon types of the future. Now it is used as a trial for slower-burning Gold Cup sorts, which narrows the appeal to its former base.
Gaillard Du Mesnil is a symptom of this race's issues, but as well as having the class of a modern winner he is an almost perfect reverse-engineered candidate for the race this used to be. As a result, it is hard to see past him and he arguably represents a surer Irish banker on day one of the Cheltenham Festival than the morning favourites for the Supreme Novices' or Arkle.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose
'I was delighted with a few bits of work he has done'
Gordon Elliott saddles a trio of runners in the National Hunt Chase, a race he is hoping to win for the fifth time having landed it with Cheltenham stalwarts Tiger Roll and Cause Of Causes.
Two of those victories have come with top amateur Jamie Codd on board and he takes the mount on Chemical Energy, who has won two of his four starts over fences. His most impressive victory came at Cheltenham in October when he coasted home from the reopposing Mahler Mission.
The John McConnell-trained Mahler Mission looks a different horse now, having put in two strong performances at Navan recently, including when defeating Tenzing by ten lengths on his penultimate start .
The seven-year-old backed up that performance next time out in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase when just edged out by Churchstonewarrior and this marathon distance could bring out the necessary improvement under jockey Johnny Barry.
Barry O'Neill takes the ride on Minella Crooner, who has some high-class form as a novice hurdler and displayed real promise on his first two starts over fences when finishing runner-up in a Grade 2 before showing a determined attitude to get up in his beginners chase at Fairyhouse.
The son of Shantou found the 2m4f trip insufficient behind Impervious at Punchestown and reappeared quickly at Fairyhouse in order to qualify for this contest when second behind Velvet Elvis. He has always shaped like a type who could relish this test of stamina and Elliott believes he could be coming to form at just the right time.
Elliott said of his leading two chances: "Chemical Energy has had this race as his aim all season and his win at the course back in October hasn't worked out badly, has it?
"Minella Crooner has come on very nicely over the last couple of weeks and I was delighted with a few bits of work he has done. I'd be hopeful of a big run from him and this trip looks made for him."
Fakiera completes the trio from the Elliott stable. This is the eight-year-old's tenth start over fences and he is one of the few who is proven at the trip, given he ran a cracker when second in the Porterstown Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse over 3m5f in December. Elliott hopes his lacklustre effort at Gowran last time was a blip.
He said: "Fakiera has loads of experience, but he will need to put his Thyestes run behind him here."
What they say
Willie Mullins, trainer of Gaillard Du Mesnil and Tenzing
Gaillard Du Mesnil is probably one of Patrick's [Mullins] best rides of the whole week. He's a second-season novice which I think might be a huge advantage in a race like this where experience is key. He's in form and everything will suit him including the ground. He ticks all the boxes so with a clear round he would be hard to oppose. Tenzing surprised us in his last couple of runs and he's improving all the time. He could run another career best here.
John McConnell, trainer of Mahler Mission
We are really delighted how Mahler Mission’s prep has gone and we are excited to see him run. The trip won't be a problem and hopefully he can get into a nice jumping rhythm. Whatever beats him will know it's had a race anyway.
Nicky Henderson, trainer of Mister Coffey
I think he's got a rather good chance. He's in very good form and could possibly have won any of the races he's been running in recently, but if he wins this I'll forgive him! That said, he's done nothing wrong and he's been second in a Kim Muir and Scilly Isles, they were great runs. Derek O'Connor rode him at Uttoxeter so knows him and I can assure you the horse is much sharper for this.
Ben Pauling, trainer of Malinello
I think he'll love the step up in trip and I imagine he'll be a nice staying chaser in time. It's a tough race. If he jumped the second last within five lengths and came home in his own time we'd be thrilled.
Venetia Williams, trainer of Bellatrixsa
We're a bit of a long shot here. She showed on the Flat at Chester how well she stays so we'll let her take her chance.
Race reporting by Conor Fennelly
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