Is stamina a chink in Fact To File's armour or will latest Willie Mullins hotpot justify the hype?

Punters considering backing an odds-on shot should always check certain criteria are met before striking the bet. Whether it is a horse’s ability, track and trip suitability, ground preference, form of the stable or any of the umpteen other assessment tools we use, it is worth getting your ducks in a row. For Fact To File there is a key piece missing from the jigsaw.

Unusually in the modern era of conservative campaigning to allow for physical development, instead of delaying the inevitable by strolling around in novice hurdles for a season he was immediately sent over fences. It has been an impressive transition, but he enters the festival cauldron without a run over three miles to his name under rules and a price that does not reflect that.

There have been 23 odds-on favourites at the festival since 2015. Something all but two of them shared, the exceptions being Sir Gerhard in the 2022 Ballymore and Lossiemouth in Tuesday's Mares' Hurdle, was previous experience at the trip over which they were running. Here Fact To File is stepping into the unknown to the tune of three furlongs. While a similar jump up didn't prevent Sir Gerhard and Lossiemouth from collecting, they towered above their opposition heading into those races. The same cannot be said for Fact To File with Stay Away Fay in the field.

Stay Away Fay is another to have been campaigned in atypical fashion. Rather than following convention and keeping his seven-year-old to novice company, Paul Nicholls threw him into the Cotswold Chase. He walked away with his reputation enhanced after splitting established stars The Real Whacker and Ahoy Senor behind Capodanno. Such an encounter can only help last year's Albert Bartlett winner, who is as certified a stayer as they come.

There are others who should excel for a thorough test of stamina. American Mike relished a step up to three miles to collect the Ten Up Novice Chase and gave Gordon Elliott little choice but to supplement. It is worth noting that American Mike is the only horse to hold a verdict over Fact To File as he beat him fair and square in a Navan beginners’ chase in November.

While the Brown Advisory did not feature on American Mike’s agenda before the Ten Up, everything about Monty’s Star’s campaigning suggests his team have been working back from this race.

Monty’s Star emphatically reversed form with Three Card Brag at Punchestown over three miles when last seen on New Year’s Eve after finishing behind that rival and Corbetts Cross over an inadequate trip on his chasing debut.

It is possible that Monty’s Star was feeling the effects of a slog on soft ground at Clonmel a month before he was pulled up in the 2023 Albert Bartlett, and Henry de Bromhead is trying something different by preserving his freshness.

As a half-brother to the yard’s Monalee – runner-up in this race and the Albert Bartlett – it is little surprise that stamina is proving to be Monty's Star's forte.

Essentially the best chance for those bidding to get Fact To File beaten is to turn the Brown Advisory into a war of attrition to take him somewhere he has never been. That fact will surely not be lost on Harry Cobden, Jack Kennedy and Rachael Blackmore. If Fact To File passes such a test with distinction, only then can we anoint him as the next superstar from the Willie Mullins yard.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

RP Recommends: how to bet on the Brown Advisory

By Tom Park, audience editor

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• RP Recommends: bet365

Fact unproven

Fact To File is seen by some as a young chaser who will be talked about for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the next 12 months, but his stamina is unproven.

What is not in doubt is the regard in which he is held at Willie Mullins' yard.

Willie Mullins: crack trainer did not want to run Fact To File over hurdles this seasonCredit: Patrick McCann

A point-to-point winner, he was second to A Dream To Share in key bumpers last season before Mullins made the highly unusual move to swerve a hurdles campaign and go straight over fences with the JP McManus-owned seven-year-old this term.

That resulted in second place on his chasing debut at Navan, which was followed by an impressive Leopardstown success. Returned to that track at the Dublin Racing Festival, he took advantage of Gaelic Warrior flopping to earn Grade 1 honours most recently.

Those wins were over 2m5½f, which led some to believe Fact To File would run in Thursday's Turners Novices' Chase. However, he was committed to this by Mullins, who does not always firm up festival targets earlier than he needs to, and has since been firm favourite.

Mullins, who has won this race five times under its various sponsorship banners, said: "He's had this race as his target for a while and everything is good with him. He jumps well and is slick over his fences. We’re really looking forward to seeing how he gets on."

Stay tough

Paul Nicholls is often a fine starting point for a staying chase and Stay Away Fay looks to possess the right attributes for this contest.

His purchase price – £305,000 at a sale in December 2021 – suggests he should be useful and he took his form to a new level when storming home in the Albert Bartlett at last year's festival.

That success came at 18-1, but no such odds exist now for the seven-year-old, who aims to complete a festival double achieved by Albert Bartlett winners Weapon's Amnesty, Bobs Worth and Monkfish in recent years.

Stay Away Fay: trainer Paul Nicholls rates him highlyCredit: Mark Cranham

He won on his debut over fences at Exeter in November and followed up when he was strong at the finish in Sandown's Grade 2 Esher Novices' Chase before Christmas.

Nicholls, who has landed this with Star De Mohaison, Denman and Topofthegame, then fielded Stay Away Fay in open company in the Cotswold Chase, in which he fared well with a close third against senior rivals.

The champion trainer said: "This race is ideal for him. It'll be a bit more of a test of stamina, which will suit him well. He's in a good place, has run well this season and I'm very happy with him."

Cheekpieces will be fitted for the first time and Nicholls added: "They'll just sharpen him a fraction. He's just a bit behind the bridle, but he's tough and will gallop, and I'm looking forward to running him."

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of American Mike
He's always had me scratching my head, but the one thing I'm sure of is that when he's right and on a going day he has a huge engine. We decided to supplement him for this as we feel it's the right race for him and he certainly wasn't stopping at Navan last time. He's got the ability to play a part here.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Monty's Star
He's a horse we've always liked and we hoped he would turn into a better chaser than hurdler. It's a hot race, but we're delighted with him and hopefully he will give a good account of himself.

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Giovinco
We had to make a decision about three miles or two and a half, but I think his form at Sandown with Stay Away Fay is very good. He travelled very well that day. Hopefully we've done the right thing with the trip. He's got a bit to find but, while things haven't gone totally right with him and we've made a few errors, he's very exciting.

Paul Nolan, trainer of Sandor Clegane
He's travelled over great and handled everything well last year when he ran a decent race in third in the Albert Bartlett. He has to improve from his last couple of runs but I think he has. He ran well at Naas last time and he'll probably be better with a lead. If he jumps well, he's in with a shout. I wouldn't be worried about the ground for him.
Reporting by James Burn

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4.00 Cheltenham: 'He's better than his performance in last season's Arkle' - can Jonbon turn the tables on El Fabiolo in Champion Chase? 

4.50 Cheltenham: 'He jumps and travels like the sort of horse you want for this' - insight and key quotes for the Grand Annual 

5.30 Cheltenham: Can anything break the Irish stranglehold on the Willie Mullins-dominated Champion Bumper? 

Mighty Mullins ready to unleash another merciless battalion on the Cotswolds 

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