'He's grown and strengthened' - can Chaldean emulate his sire Frankel and land colts' trial in the green and pink?

The introduction of Royal Ascot’s Commonwealth Cup in 2015 has changed the game as far as the Greenham Stakes is concerned. A race which stood alongside the Craven in terms of 2,000 Guineas ramifications is now just as likely to reveal a leading sprinter.

Muhaarar served notice of the new-found significance of Newbury’s Classic trial when completing the Greenham-Commonwealth double as soon as that route became a possibility in 2015. That path was trodden identically last season by Perfect Power, who led home a Greenham one-two in the Commonwealth with Newbury sixth Flaming Rib also finding his niche as a sprinter.

In fact, Ivawood (2015) and Barney Roy (2017) are the only horses to have finished in the first four in the 2,000 Guineas after contesting the Greenham since 2015 – and neither won at Newmarket. Tasleet (2016) and Hello Youmzain (2019) went the other way after Newbury by establishing themselves among the fastest of their generation.

The Commonwealth Cup’s inception is often cited as a catalyst for the industry’s increasing widespread love of the sprinter and shift towards speed over stamina. However, the graphic below reveals that the Commonwealth is filling a hole that was always there.

Contrary to expectations, the Royal Ascot contest has not been diluting the 2,000 Guineas despite 11 per cent of the colts who ran in the Greenham from 2015-2022 ending up in the Commonwealth Cup. The 22 per cent who took aim at Newmarket in that timeframe is virtually equal to the 23 per cent who went that route from 2008-2014.

Duke of York Stakes-entered Norfolk winner The Ridler is an obvious example of a probable sprinter using the seven-furlong Greenham as a fact-finding mission in terms of stamina reserves, as are Streets Of Gold and Zoology to a certain extent. It is also worth considering the possibility of a tying-up-in-the-closing stages victory from this year’s odds-on favourite Chaldean opening up the Commonwealth Cup door.

Chaldean’s sire Frankel is a renowned influence of stamina, but last year's Dewhurst winner is related to precocious sprinters, the best of whom was his half-brother Alkumait, who failed to stay in the 2021 Greenham.

The Andrew Balding-trained colt’s juvenile form speaks for itself as a three-time Group winner, who twice accounted for Thursday’s impressive Craven scorer Indestructible over seven furlongs.

His performances are impossible to crab. The question is whether he has trained on. Progression is hardly necessary for Chaldean to maintain his winning run, although there are likely improvers in the field who will go on the softening ground and thrive if granted a true test of stamina.

Undefeated Dante entry Theoryofeverything and heavy ground Horris Hill winner Knight are two of those, along with the progressive Roger Varian-trained Charyn, who has opened up at a price that undervalues the strength of his juvenile form.

He gave the impression he was crying out for further when rounding off a juvenile season spent exclusively over six furlongs with a staying-on soft-ground Group 2 strike at Chantilly. That may be where the each-way value lies.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

'You’d like to think Chaldean is straight enough to get the job done'

The mighty Frankel emphatically landed the odds in this in 2011, and 12 years on his son Chaldean bids to match his father’s exploits in the very same pink and green Juddmonte colours.

Frankel is also the last Greenham winner to follow up in the 2,000 Guineas itself, a trajectory Chaldean has been on since his success in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes last October, a race also won by his sire during his four-race unbeaten career as a juvenile.

Prior to that Newmarket win, Chaldean showed he could handle soft ground when turning over this week’s Craven Stakes winner Indestructible in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster so trainer Andrew Balding must be hopeful he can cope with the likely testing conditions in Berkshire.

Barry Mahon, racing manager to Juddmonte, is very much looking forward to the wraps coming off their star three-year-old. He said: “Chaldean goes with a bit of cut the ground and Andrew’s horse ran well in the Craven Stakes so they’re in good form and Chaldean beat the Craven winner twice last year.

"I saw him a couple of weeks ago and he’s grown and strengthened, and while he’ll come on a little for the run you’d like to think he’s straight enough to get the job done.”

What they say

Roger Varian, trainer of Charyn
This has been the plan for a long time. He'll have no problem with the ground having won a Group 2 on soft at Chantilly last year. He’s yet to race beyond six furlongs but shapes as though he’ll get this trip. This will give us an idea where we go later on.

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Grey’s Monument
He’s ready to go but this trip is on the sharp side. I expect him to come on for the outing.

Brian Meehan, trainer of Isaac Shelby
He came back lame after the Dewhurst last year but did not take long to get over it and he's been working like a good horse this spring. If he returns to the form of his Superlative win he'd be a player.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Knight
He’s strengthened nicely over the winter and is a previous course-and-distance winner. The ground is a key factor and starting him back over this trip on a soft surface should be ideal. We see him as Guineas horse, but this will tell us which Guineas that will be.

Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Streets Of Gold
He looks fantastic but my horses are looking like they need their first run. He's never been a flashy worker and only ever does enough.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Theoryofeverything
He won well on his debut at Doncaster when he showed he can handle this sort of ground. It’s a competitive race but he deserves to take his chance.

David Redvers, racing manager to Qatar Racing, owners of Zoology
The form of his win at Southwell last time got a boost when the second Covey won at the Craven meeting. He has a bit to find on the book but we’ve always thought he was a Guineas horse.

Read the rest of Saturday's previews:

2.05 Newbury: 'There wouldn’t be much between her and Mammas Girl' - Amo Racing out to land another Guineas trial

2.25 Ayr: 'We've kept her back for this and we're very hopeful' - key quotes for the Scottish Champion Hurdle

3.00 Ayr: 'I've had my eye on this for a while' - can Henderson's long-term target pay off for Balco Coastal?

3.15 Newbury: Can Irish Lincoln winner Lattam complete a unique spring double? All the key info for the Spring Cup

3.35 Ayr: 'He has a good future' - can Jonjo O'Neill add the Scottish National to his CV with Monbeg Genius?