'He's got a real chance' - analysis and key quotes for valuable handicap hurdle

Saturday: 3.35 Ascot
Betfair Exchange Trophy (Grade 3) | 1m7½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

The defection of Not So Sleepy, who has won back-to-back runnings of this race, at the five-day stage has changed the complexion of this year's Betfair Exchange Trophy.

Hughie Morrison's stable star propelled his form to a new level by dead-heating with Epatante in the Fighting Fifth last month and would have had to lump a huge weight, so you can understand the decision to bypass this target.

Without the enthusiastic Not So Sleepy in the line-up, a couple of perennial front-runners might fancy stealing this race from the head of affairs. The improving Onemorefortheroad, who capped an excellent autumn with an all-the-way success in Listed company at Newbury last month, and the well-handicapped Global Citizen are sure to set an end-to-end gallop in an attempt to fend off their rivals on this speed-favouring track.

Fluent jumping can be the difference between success and failure in 2m contests and Onemorefortheroad couldn't have jumped any better on his latest run. Although he hails from a relatively unfashionable yard, Bryony Frost's mount could have his rivals in trouble early with a repeat display.

However, setting decent fractions may have an adverse effect on his chance of success. A number of the market protagonists possess a naturally high cruising speed and regularly race freely – No Ordinary Joe, Samarrive, Luttrell Lad and the enigmatic Goshen stand out in that regard.

Should they be allowed to settle into a rhythm behind the pace, that quartet could stamp their authority from the final hurdle to the line.

Perhaps the most exciting is Samarrive, a four-year-old French import who has sandwiched a below-par Cheltenham performance between wide-margin victories at Kempton and Sandown. This venue should suit him well and an 11lb rise for his recent Listed success seems reasonable.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

Skelton sure of another strong West Cork run

No horse has ever completed the Greatwood Hurdle-Betfair Exchange Trophy double since the race was first run 20 years ago, but Dan Skelton is optimistic he has "no excuses" as West Cork tries to able to break that chain and create his own slice of history.

The seven-year-old defied a 631-day absence with a game win in last month's competitive Cheltenham handicap hurdle and bids to give the trainer a third win in the race under his brother Harry, having landed the spoils with Willow's Saviour (2013) and Mohaayed (2018).

West Cork (left): turns up in Saturday's Betfair Exchange TrophyCredit: Alan Crowhurst / Getty Images

Skelton is also adamant the 'bounce' factor will not play a part in West Cork's performance following his long layoff and a 7lb hike in the weights for his Greatwood victory.

He said: "I'm really happy with him. He's in great form at home and we've had this race in mind since he won the Greatwood. I've got no excuses.

"That second time they can under-run but I haven't seen any of that at home. I'm very happy with him and I think he'll run very well."

What they say

Gary Moore, trainer of Goshen
He's in a great place, but he's one of mine who might not get his ground. He's so well that I have to let him take his chance because he's so limited in where he can go. At least it'll be reasonable ground and it's the right way around for him. We've got to let him take his chance.

Pat Fahy, trainer of Drop The Anchor
It was a very encouraging run from him on the Flat last time. This is a nice race for him but we'd like more ease in the ground. He's a very tough horse who always gives his best.

Jonjo O'Neill Jr, rider of Garry Clermont
He came second last time over course and distance but I thought he should have won; it was my fault. I think the better race will suit him and will bring him into it further. It's very competitive, but a similar run should put him in the mix.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Samarrive
He could have done without the 11lb rise for winning at Sandown. That was quite harsh, especially when you consider he runs here off the same mark as Dan Skelton’s horse who won the Greatwood Hurdle. He'll need to improve a lot to win but is unexposed.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of No Ordinary Joe
I started him over two and a half miles but he's not a slow horse, so we went back in trip. He looks like he'd be a two-and-a-half-mile chaser, but he's a two-mile hurdler at the moment and that's where we'll stay. He ran a fantastic race in the Greatwood and you'd have to think he's got a real chance.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Luttrell Lad
Having had three runs over hurdles we thought this was the right race to have a go at with him and it looks like that’s the case. The prize-money is so much better than going for another novice hurdle and it’s worth seeing where we are with him.

Evan Williams, trainer of Mack The Man
He has run some good races. He wants plenty of cut in the ground, so it might not be what he wants. On his day he's a proper little horse.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Saturday's race previews:

1.50 Ascot: has the handicapper given 'frustrating' Palmers Hill a winning chance?

2.05 Haydock: 'I don't know how good he is' – Oliver Sherwood in the dark over Little Awkward

2.25 Ascot: trainer insight on Thyme Hill, Paisley Park, Ronald Pump and more

2.40 Haydock: 'Unfortunate' Ladbrokes Trophy faller Remastered gets shot at redemption

3.00 Ascot: 'He comes alive here' – veteran Regal Encore back for more at favourite track

Navan: Champion Bumper favourite American Mike bids to join illustrious roll of honour

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