'He's got a big chance' - can Midnight River hand Dan Skelton another valuable handicap?

Three of the last six, and two of the last three winners of this race have subsequently run in the Grand National and that says something about the sort of horse required. It has become a rival to the Topham as the consolation-cum-trial race of choice for those who just miss out on the big one.

It also suggests the emphasis placed on stamina, and quite a few of these runners are not certain stayers. That goes right to the top of the market with Midnight River, who has only once before tried staying trips over fences. He has had a wind operation and now sports a tongue tie, so even if his legs are up to it he is not the most attractive prospect for a race that puts as much significance on stamina as this does.

You could say the same for Beauport, Shakem Up'Arry, Coconut Splash and Karl Phillipe, to name a few. Nassalam is not strictly established as a stayer either, but he at least promises to suit three miles plus in time. That he got involved at all in the Ultima last time, given the mistakes he made, is to his credit.

Sam Brown was a relatively rare veteran winner of the race last year and a couple of unexposed sorts to mention this time are Kinondo Kwetu and Bowtogreatness. The former has good course form, having beaten Your Own Story (now 11lb higher) over course and distance in October. He has been saved for this race since, though a wind op and tongue tie were deemed necessary after his run in the Reynoldstown eight weeks ago and that is a slight niggle.

Bowtogreatness also has good autumn form behind him, particularly his Exeter second to Black Gerry, and each of his last three runs are excusable for one reason or another. He is bred to suit staying trips and could outrun unflattering overnight odds.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Eldorado Allen
He's been dining at the top table all season and has performed really well, but he's dropped to a mark where he can be competitive and he's a graded horse in a handicap so it looks a nice opportunity for him. It's competitive, but he's a good horse on his day.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Midnight River
He's got a big chance stepping up to three miles, which is definitely what he wants. Once his chance had gone, he didn't have a hard race at Cheltenham and this is a good opportunity to go back over three miles.

Gary Moore, trainer of Nassalam
He was massively disappointing at Cheltenham and I don't know why — he just never got going. If he can bounce back, he'd definitely have a chance.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Beauport
He's in good form, he lost a shoe at Cheltenham, and we're hoping for a good run.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Karl Philippe
He produced a good effort at the festival as there were times when I thought he'd drop out, but he got a second wind. He was beaten a long way — don't get me wrong — but it was still a pleasing run and I wouldn't have thought this race will be as hot, while a flat track will suit him better too.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Shakem Up'Arry and Bowtogreatness
It's Shakem Up's first time over three miles and it'll either be a great call or a terrible call, we're not sure if he'll stay or not. If he does he'll be very effective, he's got a high cruising speed and goes well at flat tracks. Bowtogreatness has been ultimately a bit disappointing this season. We've always thought a lot of him and if he won this we'd be happy to lose his novice status at the last minute, otherwise we'll have him as a novice next season.

Sam England, trainer of Kinondo Kwetu
Hopefully it doesn't rain. He's only run in small-field novices so far, so it's a step up for him, but we know he's in good form so we go there hopeful. He's a course-and-distance winner so he's a lot in his favour if the rain stays away.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Kapga De Lily
It's a competitive race as you would expect. She hasn't run much this season, but goes there in good order. I think she has a good chance.

Evan Williams, trainer of Coconut Splash
I think his trainer is probably the only one who still has any faith in him at the moment. He just hasn't done what I've hoped he could do, I do think he has plenty of ability off his mark. We'll try again, but I can't believe I've only won a maiden hurdle with him. I hope he runs well as I've a lot of faith in him.

Philip Dempsey, trainer of Handsworth
I think he'll enjoy this ground and he's ran very well around Aintree before. I'd be hopeful he will handle the trip alright and we're looking forward to running
Reporting by Stuart Riley

Grand National day previews:

1.45 Aintree: Jonbon bids to bounce back from Cheltenham disappointment - can anyone stop him?

2.25 Aintree: 'It was the plan to save her for this race' - analysis and key quotes for a competitive handicap hurdle

3.00 Aintree: Britain or Ireland: who will take the spoils in the novice hurdle division at Aintree?

3.35 Aintree: 'It was always the plan to come straight here' - which horse has been laid out for the Liverpool Hurdle?

4.15 Aintree: 'He's got a big chance' - can Midnight River hand Dan Skelton another valuable handicap?

Grand National 2023: 'He's got the profile and is in great form' - top trainers on their big guns

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