'He's favourite and he deserves to be' - Bridgwater has faith in The Conditional

Good Luck Hollie In Spoty Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed) | 3m | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

The last of five chases at the two-day Ascot meeting, the ground is likely to start as soft and deteriorate as rain falls and horses plunge their weight into the turf.

Any horse who kept to the inside in this race last year, which presumably was churned up, might as well have stayed in the racecourse stables. If the GoingStick is any guide, the ground this year will be even more testing.

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Demonstrable heavy-ground form will be important. That tends to tie in with course form, as at this stage in the winter Ascot often comes up testing. Course specialist Regal Encore won this race last year, while Espoir De Guye and Quarenta both have perfect course records that have been built on soft and heavy ground.

It is understandable why all three are popular, but also why The Conditional casts a long shadow over all of them in the betting.

The Conditional is so progressive that even a reappearance third in the Ladbrokes Trophy, which could well have been described as encouraging, was another career-best effort. The only mark against him is the subtle but significant difference in conditions that heavy ground at Ascot provides – he is unraced on heavy in Britain and has never run here.

The Conditional was the best-placed finisher of the five in this race that contested the Ladbrokes Trophy last time. Beware The Bear was next, but he tends to get behind and does not have much form in ground quite this testing. Ardlethen was a place further back in sixth and looks a more attractive prospect.

Ardlethen is only seven and has given the impression that he might be stealthily improving this winter. On his reappearance he ran with real credit at Carlisle on heavy ground against Imperial Aura and the like. He also looked more of a danger at Newbury than a 23-length sixth implies, having come from the rear (few others did) and looking booked for a place at one stage before his move forward told.

Ardlethen is an occasional front runner and there would be scope for Harry Skelton to at least sit prominently if he wishes. There is not a lot of obvious pace in the race, the likeliest candidates being outsiders and recent stable-switchers Enfant Roi and Sub Lieutenant. Under conditions that often leave room for enterprise, such an opportunity could be up for grabs again.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Beware The Bear
He ran a great race in the Ladbrokes Trophy on good ground. He goes on soft, so that’s a plus this time, and the smaller field will help him too.

Venetia Willaims, trainer of Espoir De Guye
He's got a good record around Ascot. It's his first time over the longer trip, but he's given us every indication it shouldn't be beyond him. It's a step up again for him, but the ground should be fine.

Anthony Honeyball, trainer of Regal Encore
The negatives are that he ran only three weeks ago in the Ladbrokes Trophy and was right there until they turned in, and he's high enough in the handicap. However, he's come here from Newbury before and bounced back to win this race. He's in good form and he's going back to Ascot, where the track and style of racing really suit him.

Regal Encore (right) wins last year's Swinley Chase ahead of Minella DaddyCredit: Mark Cranham

Georgie Howell, trainer of Sub Lieutenant
We bought him at Doncaster Sales to run in the veterans' series but we've missed the boat as he's had a few niggles. As he's rated 147, he's a lot better than my other horses and has been on a few away days to get fit. He usually gallops around our muddy paddock so he'll handle the ground okay.

David Bridgwater, trainer of The Conditional
He's favourite and he deserves to be after his third in the Ladbrokes Trophy, in which I think he would have finished second had he been completely fit. This race is perfect coming three weeks later and he should handle the conditions, while the track should also play to his strengths.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Flying Angel and Fauburg Rosetgri
Flying Angel ran really well in the Grand Sefton at Aintree last time. He's bounced back in really good form and likes Ascot. Fauburg Rosetgri will be having his first run for us over fences and we're finding our way with him.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Ardlethen
He's at the right end of the handicap and wants softer ground than he had at Newbury, where he ran well nevertheless. We've got to get back out there with him and he's been in good form since.
Reporting by David Milnes

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