'He's due a big one' - trainers on their runners in this £125,000 handicap

Thursday: 3.00 York
Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage Handicap) | 1m | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

Draw analysis can be confusing. Just take this race over a mile at York as an example. It regularly attracts a big field, but winners have come from all over the track in recent years.

Three of the last ten winners were drawn in stalls one or two, but four others came from double-figure stalls and a further three were in four, eight and nine. That hardly screams bias.

Blue For You has the lowest draw in one – from which two of the last ten winners have emerged – and it’s the second time in a row he has banked the inside stall. The last time he drew stall one was in the Golden Mile at Goodwood, which is a huge advantage in that race.

The Golden Mile is one of the big draw races in the calendar and this year was no exception. The winner Orbaan came from two, Blue For You was second from one, while the fourth, fifth and sixth were in single figures. That begs the question: was Blue For You flattered?

He was definitely at an advantage, but his previous form suggests it was no flash in the pan as Blue For You had twice finished second over this course and distance on his two previous starts and is putting together a consistent profile. A reproduction of either run may be enough.

Brunch is also on the inside in three and a low draw proved his undoing when he was beaten here at the Dante meeting in May. He lost by a head to the reopposing Cruyff Turn, but would have won with a clear run and was desperately unlucky after being stuck in a pocket.

Of those in higher draws, Orbaan (stall 11) is back to try to confirm Golden Mile form with Blue For You, but a 9lb turnaround in Blue For You’s favour will make it tougher for Orbaan.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Spencer: the betting doesn't seem right

Richard Spencer is going up in the world at his Sefton Lodge Stables in Newmarket – he's having an upstairs hayloft converted into a new office at his Bury Road premises.

The same can be said of his consistent handicapper Revich, who is close to his highest rating of 98 after three placed efforts at big meetings this summer.

After a close third at the Chester May fixture, the six-year-old went one better at the Epsom Derby meeting before finishing third to today’s rivals Orbaan and Blue For You at Glorious Goodwood.

Posted wide and sent off at 66-1 that day, Revich is a more sober 20-1 chance to overcome a similar berth under Jim Crowley.

Richard Spencer: trainer of RevichCredit: Edward Whitaker

Revich has earned more than £18,000 on his last two starts and could be in the money again in a £125,000 race which pays down to the sixth place.

Spencer said: “He hasn’t got the best of draws but he was drawn similar at Goodwood before posting a career-best third under an enterprising ride.

“The front two from Goodwood take us on again and are short in the betting, but we are double figures, which doesn’t seem right as we expect another good run granted some luck in running.”

What they say

William Haggas, trainer of Boosala
It’s a tough race but he’s a good horse. He could do with some dig in the ground but should be okay now they’ve had a bit of rain.

David O'Meara, trainer of Escobar, Orbaan, Young Fire, Shelir, Rhoscolyn and Blue For You
Escobar is in good form. He ran really well at Goodwood but he's a bit high in the handicap now. Orbaan won the Golden Mile at Goodwood and followed up at the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot. He has a good draw and is in the form of his life. Young Fire needs more rain and has a wide draw, so it’s a big ask. Shelir also ran at the Shergar Cup, but has a wide draw and will go off in front. Blue For You is drawn well and has hit the woodwork a few times this season. He’s due a big one.

Andrea Atzeni, rider of Tyrrhenian Sea
It’s a competitive race and he hasn’t got a great draw in stall 14, but he’s not short of speed and we expect the track and trip to suit him. He’s quite versatile as regards ground but would not mind a shower or two up there.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Saga
He’s the highest-weighted three-year-old in the race and takes on the older horses for the first time. He will have to overcome a bad draw in stall 19 if he is to win.

Grant Tuer, trainer of Lion Tower
He’s been a real money-spinner for us and has won over course and distance, but he may well now be in the grip of the handicapper. He’s well drawn and we’ll drop him in but it looks a competitive race as you’d expect.

Jack Mitchell, rider of Bass Player
He’s still unexposed and ran a great race in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket before being just touched off in a handicap back there last time. He’s well drawn and has worked well recently. He has a solid each-way shout in a typically competitive event.
Reporting by David Milnes

Thursday's previews:

1.50 York: The Lowther poser: is Queen Mary winner Dramatised a certainty or opposable?

3.35 York: Yorkshire Oaks: 'It's all systems go' - Alpinista chases first domestic Group 1

4.10 York: Can Golden Lyra continue recent sea of yellow success in the Galtres?

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