'He's done nothing wrong' - the proven Champ or the potential in Nationale?

Sunday: 1.25 Fairyhouse
Bar One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m | 4yo+ | RTE/RTV

Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have won the last eight runnings of the Royal Bond between them. Incidentally, the last trainer other than them to get in on the act was Philip Fenton in 2013 with The Tullow Tank, owned by none other than Barry Connell.

Nine years later and Connell is trying to win the race as a trainer with the unbeaten and exciting Marine Nationale.

He might not have beaten much when he won his maiden hurdle at Punchestown – the second, fourth, fifth and sixth have all been beaten since – but there was a swagger to the performance. There was no shortage of style if not a whole lot of substance. Still, there is no way of knowing how good he might be.

Champ Kiely is the solid one with the solid form. He won a Grade 3 at Tipperary in emphatic fashion, beating Brazil who won the Boodles at Cheltenham and has since floored Fil Dor at Naas.

He showed speed we never knew he had there and earned a Racing Post Rating of 142. Stablemate Hercule Du Seuil is the only one to get anywhere close to that level, 137 for winning a Grade 3 at Navan.

Marine Nationale (125), Irish Point (121) and Path D'Oroux (125) have all looked impressive in maiden hurdles but they need to take a massive step forward to reach the level already reached by Champ Kiely.

That is the poser for punters – proven form or potential? Champ Kiely deserves to be favourite but can you be certain one of the exciting maiden hurdle winners won't improve past him? I'm not sure you can.

Statuaire was an underestimated mare going into this 12 months ago and duly obliged at 12-1. Ashroe Diamond falls into a similar sort of category here and she looks a big price at double-digit odds.

The fact that Galway Hurdle third Prairie Dancer is the outsider of the field at 50-1 tells you this will take a bit of winning.

'He worked well during the week' - Connell out to make a splash with Marine

Barry Connell celebrated five Grade 1 victories as an owner, including in this race with The Tullow Tank, but can he strike at the top level on his first try as a trainer?

Marine Nationale has been flawless thus far, winning bumpers at Punchestown and Killarney before justifying odds-on favouritism with the minimum of fuss on his jumping debut in October.

Marine Nationale: pictured with owner-trainer Barry O'ConnellCredit: Patrick McCann

That maiden hurdle at Punchestown might not have taken much winning but Connell immediately nominated the Royal Bond as his next target afterwards. He might just have something a bit special on his hands.

Connell said: "I'm very happy with him going into the race. He’s in good form and worked well during the week. In the case of both of our horses [Marine Nationale and Enniskerry], we’ll be hoping that we don’t get too much rain. On the bare form of what he’s done, he’s going to have to step up in this company. He has the potential to be able to do that."

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer of Champ Kiely, Ashroe Diamond, Hercule Du Seuil and Polo Lounge
Champ Kiely has been very impressive. It's a big step up in class but he's been very good of late. I was taken with Hercule Du Seuil's performance at Navan. A repeat of that puts him in here with a chance. Ashroe Diamond wouldn't want rain but deserves to take her chance in a strong Grade 1. I think the ground will suit Polo Lounge if it doesn't rain and who knows how much he'll improve.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Irish Point
He won his maiden hurdle at Cork well and does everything nicely at home. He's a good horse, with a bit of boot, and hopefully he can run a nice race. It looks very competitive, though.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Path D'Oroux
It’s a huge ask to go from a maiden hurdle up to a Grade 1. We’re happy with him and he’s been in good form. He’s certainly lacking in experience. We’ll find out a lot more about him on Sunday.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Prairie Dancer
He never runs a bad race and, although this is a big step up in class for him, we're hoping he can run another nice race. He never lets us down.

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