'He's been mapped out for this for some time' - analysis and key quotes for the Spring Mile

You either back the winner of the Spring Mile or you learn from it. At least that seems to be the perception, with post-race analysis tending to focus on how the consolation race might affect the Lincoln later on the card.

In the last ten years, there have been eight relevant comparisons. In each of those years a simple glance at the stall numbers of the horses that fought out the finish would not be much help. Indeed only once have the winners of both races come from the same portion of the draw, if you were to divide the field roughly into low, middle and high stalls.

But the relevant comparison is not where horses start the race, but where they spend most of it. As a rough guide, where the field concentrates in the Spring Mile they will also tend to concentrate in the Lincoln. The exceptions tend to come either when an outlier wins the earlier race or when the ground is soft, as it is forecast to be on Saturday.

A trend the Spring Mile almost always adheres to is going the way of a relatively unexposed horse. In the last decade seven winners – and 20 of the 36 horses to make the frame – have been aged four, which is the minimum for the race. The exceptional winners were five-year-old Artistic Rifles, who had spent a year in Italy, and eight-year-old Brae Hill, who had previously won and been second in the Lincoln.

There are eight four-year-olds in this field of 22 and Baltimore Boy, the favourite immediately after declarations, is the obvious improver after just five starts. Similarly, Warning Sign has had just two runs for Gary Moore since arriving from France.

Also look out for Zozimus, who is five but has not run since he was three. He had quite a bit of racing for Donnacha O'Brien, including when fourth at 100-1 in the 2021 Cambridgeshire. He now starts out for David O'Meara off a 2lb lower mark and is presumed to have big handicaps on his agenda this summer. Maybe he can start off by winning the first major handicap of the season.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Harswell Duke has 'got everything he wants'

Guaranteed prize-money of £75,000 ensures a good proportion of the 22 runners will have been carefully laid out for this cavalry charge. Harswell Duke, who loves the mud, fits the bill.

The Roger Fell-trained five-year-old signed off last season with two wins and a third on soft or heavy ground and travels to Doncaster on the back of a pipe-opener at Newcastle last month.

With proven race-fitness on his side, Harswell Duke, who stays further than a mile, might prove difficult to peg back if he can adopt his customary front-running tactics in such a big field.

“He’s fit and likes to get on with things,” Fell said. “He’s got the ground he wants, the trip he wants; he’s got everything he wants.”

Harswell Duke launched his 2022 campaign off a mark of 84 and competes off 1lb lower this time – even after those autumn wins at Nottingham and Leicester.

“We’ve got plenty of work into him,” Fell said. “He’s been mapped out for this race for some time.”

What they say

Nigel Tinkler, trainer of Isla Kai
It’s a little unfortunate as we would have liked to have been in the Lincoln. The horse is very well in himself and soft ground will not be an issue.

Michael Bell, trainer of Baltimore Boy
He's very lightly raced. I'm hoping he'll be effective on the ground, but it isn't a given. The straight mile at Doncaster should suit him and he goes into the race slightly unexposed.

Jamie Osborne, trainer of Raising Sand
I don't know if there's ever been an 11-year-old in the race, but he's a very unusual horse. He still shows he has the appetite for training and racing and I wouldn't have said to you he'd still be going as he is when he was a lot younger. He still has the enthusiasm and when he was younger I'd have said softer ground would've been his preference, but I'm not so sure now.

Jamie Osborne: runs Raising Sand in the Spring MileCredit: Edward Whitaker

John Quinn, trainer of Tropez Power
He's in fantastic form, he's been running well all winter. I don't know about the soft ground, but we'll find out and if he goes on it, he'll run a big race.

Grant Tuer, trainer of Lion Tower and Dirtyoldtown
The ground probably won't suit Lion Power, but he'll take his chance. Dirtyoldtown should go on it. He has some good course form and ran well in the seven-furlong three-year olds' race there last September. He's in good order and we've put blinkers on to help him concentrate late on. He's lightly-raced and the penny hasn't quite dropped with him in the last 100 yards.  

Steve Brown, assistant to Julie Camacho, trainer of Titian
He has winning form over a mile and a quarter on soft ground at Doncaster and we felt it was worth a try at the Spring Mile. He's not a slow horse. If the draw is agreeable, I could see him running well at a decent price.

Tony Coyle, trainer of Broken Spear
This has been the plan all winter. The ground has come right and he loves Doncaster; he never runs a bad race there. He's well handicapped and I'm very hopeful.

Karl Burke, trainer of Tothenines
He's in great form and we've freshened him up for this. He'll handle the ground, but whether he wants it this soft is questionable.

Alice Haynes, trainer of Maysong
We're lucky to have got into this race, which has always been the plan. He will enjoy the ground and he'll like the trip. We'll ride him for a bit of luck and hope that he's there on the line.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read our Saturday previews:

'He's a very nice type of horse and his work has been good' - analysis and quotes for a competitive Brocklesby  

'We’ve always thought a lot of him' - trainer quotes and analysis for the Cammidge Stakes  

Last year's hero Bandinelli bids to give Appleby more Queen's Prize glory  

'It looks a very good, very competitive race this year' - can Al Mubhir stamp his class on the Lincoln field?  

Brave Emperor bids to keep Kentucky Derby dream alive for Middleham Park in £100,000 Chelmsford race  

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