'He's been aimed at this race for a long time' - analysis and quotes for Kelso's Premier Novices' Hurdle

The Premier Novices’ Hurdle is the only 2m2f Graded race in the British jumps Pattern. Considering Kelso has a stiff finish, this race can perhaps be deemed a closer cousin to a regular two-and-a-half-mile novice hurdle than a two-mile one.

Unsurprisingly, plenty of its recent winners have stayed longer trips. Future Mersey scorer My Drogo (2021) is the Premier’s top performer on Racing Post Ratings in the last decade, and Jango Baie scores highest by that metric for Nicky Henderson.

He is the right favourite and has already proved he stays further, having fared best at the weights when a 5lb penalty proved his undoing behind Handstands in the Sidney Banks last time.

It's possible the penalty he incurred for the  Formby Novices' Hurdle (formerly the Tolworth) triumph costs him again. The query remains regarding yard form and Ben Pauling will have a decent line into Jango Baie with Personal Ambition, a stablemate of Handstands.

He failed to stay 2m4f on deep ground at Sandown in the Winter Novices’ Hurdle but bounced back in style under a penalty at Doncaster in a good time.

Like Jango Baie, Brucio is penalised for her runaway Leopardstown strike over this trip at the Dublin Racing Festival. The two tearaway leaders went hard in a fiendishly competitive mares’ handicap hurdle and it suited her.

In terms of the easiest last-time-out winner, however, punters are advised to watch the replay of Alnilam's at-a-canter soft-ground victory here 15 days ago from two better-fancied novices. That performance, run in the best relative time on the card, hinted at Graded potential in a similar way his pedigree points towards Group potential.

Alnilam began life with Charlie Appleby and is related to top-class winners in the other code. A faster surface at Kelso might even see him to even better effect.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

'This is a good slot for Jango Baie'

Jango Baie has already landed a Grade 1 during his fledgling career, but trainer Nicky Henderson admits he will probably need a career-best to win this Grade 2.

The five-year-old got the better of a sharp tussle with Favour And Fortune in Aintree’s Formby Novices’ Hurdle on Boxing Day. Firmly on top at the finish, he looked a young hurdler destined to win more decent prizes.

“He’s done nothing wrong, but I think this is going to be a very smart race,” Henderson said. “He’s won a Grade 1, so we know he’s talented, and he ran very well last time in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon.

“I don’t think things necessarily went our way on that occasion, although we were behind what looked a nice horse of Ben Pauling’s [Handstands] and we were giving him weight.”

Any deterioration in underfoot conditions at Kelso would not faze Jango Baie, with all three of his runs to date having been on ground described officially as soft.

“Our lad won’t mind the ground if it’s testing and this is a good slot for him,” Henderson added.

What they say

Paul Robson, trainer of Cannock Park
The ground looks to be coming right for him. I’ve never had the chance to run him on anything near good ground – I’m quite excited about it. He’s got a bit of work to do with Jango Baie based on their Aintree runs on Boxing Day, but the track will suit him better this time. A sharp 2m2f looks ideal for him, and Craig [Nichol] knows the place well. He seems in great fettle.

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Choose A Copper
He’s one of the nicest horses we’ve got to go chasing in due course. We’re testing him a bit in a Grade 2 race, but we’re looking forward to running him. He didn’t stay 2m6f last time, and looks a very big price for a horse we rate highly.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Personal Ambition
He’s been aimed at this race for a long time, and we’re purposely sidestepping Cheltenham. He goes to Kelso in good order, and I’m looking forward to seeing him run.

Sue Smith, trainer of Rich Spirit
He’s been very consistent. He’s a nice, young horse with everything in front of him. He’ll make a nice chaser next year. The trip and ground at Kelso should be ideal for him.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read our Saturday previews:

1.55 Newbury: 'He would seem to have a proper chance' - analysis and trainer quotes for the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury 

2.50 Kelso: Nicky Henderson admits ground is a key factor for 'very good mare' Under Control - key quotes for the Morebattle Hurdle 

3.25 Kelso: Monbeg Genius goes on trial for the Grand National in Britain's answer to the Bobbyjo Chase 

3.40 Doncaster: 'This race has been the plan for some time' - who fancies their Grimthorpe Chase chances? 

4.23 Navan: 'We're thinking of Fairyhouse for him' - Ash Tree Meadow skips Cheltenham in favour of home campaign 

Meydan: Charlie Appleby out in force on Super Saturday as Castle Way returns in Dubai City of Gold 

Nicky Henderson sets sights on valuable Kelso prizes as he bids to put dreadful week behind him  

'I fancy him strongly' - who are our panel of experts siding with this weekend? 

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