'He's a big price' - who thinks their mount could outrun their odds in the Pertemps qualifier?

Pertemps qualifier season is in full swing and this will be the 13th since the series kicked off with Hyland’s victory at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October. Low-rated runners with the requirement to climb the handicap and muscle their way into the Final are often favoured in qualifiers and the stats back that up.

The average BHA rating of the winner heading into the 12 qualifiers was just 126. Typically speaking, a mark in the mid 130s is the minimum requirement for Cheltenham Festival participation, meaning class horses like Absolute Notions and Springwell Bay have little reason to enhance their rating if the Final is the major aim. Naturally, such a hike could compromise a handy mark.

These two 143-rated hurdlers, who contested different Grade 1 novices at Aintree's Grand National meeting last spring, must achieve something we are yet to witness in the earlier qualifiers. Itchy Feet’s Market Rasen triumph off 138 in November represents the highest winning pre-race BHA rating of the series. Dargiannini (Kempton in November) and Howlingmadmurdock (Carlisle, December) are the others to have scored off marks in the 130s.

But what if Absolute Notions and Springwell Bay aren’t fully tuned up? There are alternatives aplenty from the opposite end of the weights and Emmet Mullins could easily bid to pull a rabbit out of the hat with the 117-rated Almuhit. First-time cheekpieces are an interesting addition to a lightly raced hurdler who has a Flat Racing Post Rating of 92 on his profile.

Punters should also respect the other co-bottomweights. Curley Finger is a young course-and-distance winner for Rebecca Menzies, while Imaginary Dragon is of interest for two reasons. Firstly, he is an unexposed stayer bred for the job and improving his RPRs with every run. Secondly, he is trained by Sandy Thomson.

Thomson has a penchant for targeting decent pots at this track (19 per cent, +£26.71 to level stakes) and his runner deserves more respect than the early market is granting him.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Absolute Notions
He's a nice horse who we've always liked. He had a nice confidence booster at Fairyhouse in November and hopefully he can go well for Keith [Donoghue] in what looks a very open race.

Nick Alexander, trainer of Wakool
He's in good form but it looks like the handicapper has just got him at the moment. He was second in the race two years ago and fourth last year, and I would be delighted if he could run into a place.

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Hector Javilex
We’re a bit behind where we wanted to be with him this season in terms of chasing, so we’re coming back to hurdles for now. We know where we stand with him over hurdles and hopefully he can run a nice race.

Fergal O’Brien, trainer of Peking Rose
We’re pleased with him and hopefully he can run a nice race. We made the mistake of running him back too quickly last season, so we’ve waited more between his runs this time and he should like the nice ground as well.

Harry Cobden, rider of Silent Revolution
He could run all right and I think he's a big price. He's obviously been a little bit disappointing of late but it's his second run since a wind op and he's a good price. If he got into a rhythm and jumped and travelled well then he could run well.

Ian Hamilton, owner of Dare To Shout
He had his wind done at the start of the season but he was making a noise when he ran at Newcastle last time, so that’s why the tongue tie is on. We hope that will bring him on but he’s probably in the grip of the handicapper.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

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