'He was beaten by a bit of a freak' - can Hermes Allen bounce back from Il Est Francais defeat in Scilly Isles?

Suggestions that British novice chasers represent a struggling division overstate the problem. Or at any rate they misdiagnose it. In recent weekends Grey Dawning, Ginny's Destiny and Stay Away Fay have shown that those over middle-distance and staying trips will put up a staunch defence at the spring festivals.

The problem, which is not restricted to Britain, is the supply of chasers over shorter distances. The field for this year's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase shows that. It is made up mostly of horses stepping up in trip and looks in danger of snapping the run of 160-plus performances on Racing Post Ratings recorded by the winner. That streak is unbroken going back to 2017.

The only horse coming back in distance is the clear favourite. Hermes Allen was humbled in the Kauto Star last time by a bravura performance from French raider Il Est Francais. He never looked fully at ease with the pace the winner was going, yet he was still able to complete the course faster than the King George field. He had also looked a natural chaser when winning a Grade 2 at Newbury on his chasing debut less than four weeks earlier.

His rivals here are more on a Grade 2 sort of level. That is the grade that most of them have been cutting it in. Le Patron and Colonel Harry were first and second in the Grade 1 Henry VIII here in December, although on RPRs that was the weakest running in nearly a decade. Only Colonel Harry has run since, when he won the Towton at Wetherby three weeks ago. Yet had runner-up Trelawne behaved himself, it is likely that the result would have been different.

Nickle Back was beaten fair and square by Hermes Allen at Newbury, and has been beaten fair and square again since by Master Chewy in the Wayward Lad. As a result, Djelo is likely the rival to Hermes Allen to focus on.

His form ties in with Master Chewy, but he has improved 20lb since then and won a Grade 2 at Ascot before Christmas on his most recent completed start. He was sent off favourite for the Lightning at Lingfield on the back of that performance, but was wiped out at the first through no fault of his own.

Djelo has left the impression of a high-class two-and-a-half-miler posing as a smart two-miler. In that sense, he has some similarities with recent Scilly Isles-winning stablemate L'Homme Presse. It is unlikely he is as good, but in a weak-looking Scilly Isles he will not have to be. He is at least the one likely to keep Hermes Allen honest.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Colonel Harry
He's in great shape. This looks competitive but we go there with every chance. He stayed on really well to be beaten only a length and a quarter after making an early mistake in the Henry VIII. I don't know whether he improved for going up in trip last time and I don't think that necessarily matters to him at this stage.

Charlie Deutsch, rider of Djelo
It was horrible what happened at Lingfield. I felt sorry for him because he jumped the fence fine and got taken out by another horse. We've schooled him since and he jumped well, so hopefully it hasn't affected him at all and we can get him back on track. We'll find out more about him. It's going to be competitive and no-one's going to want to give anyone too much rope.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Hermes Allen
He was beaten by a bit of a freak in a hell of a fast time at Kempton, which could turn out to be a special run. He ran very well, jumped well and learned a lot. This is much calmer waters, although it's still a good race and I think two and a half miles on a stiff track should suit him well. He worked well this week and I'm very happy with him.

Gary Moore, trainer of Le Patron
It was always the plan to leave him for this after he got killed by the handicapper. We forced the pace last time because we were going back in trip and this is probably his right distance. I think he went in the ground better than JPR One and Colonel Harry last time but the form looks strong. I drove the owner mad when he was disappointing over hurdles but running well by telling him he was a chaser for next season. To do what he's done has really surprised me. I probably don't want to go down the Cheltenham Festival road when there are other nice prizes.

Sarah Humphrey, trainer of Nickle Back
He ran a great race over two miles last time but I was never keen on it, so we'll see what happens back up in trip. When he met Hermes Allen his jumping wasn't as slick as it could be and he wasn’t beaten far. The drying ground will help us, he's very slick over his fences, and I think he'll love Sandown. Once you get to this level you're always going to meet extremely good horses, but he's earned his spot. He'll give them a good run for their money.
Reporting by Maddy Playle

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2.15 Musselburgh: 'This has been the plan since he won the race last year' - can Magna Sam defend Edinburgh National crown?

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3.10 Sandown: 'We couldn't be happier with her' - will West Balboa defy top weight or will one of the younger stars take valuable pot?

3.35 Leopardstown: Bullish Paul Townend eyes 'sweet revenge' as Galopin Des Champs takes aim at Fastorslow in Irish Gold Cup

3.45 Sandown: 'There's no reason why he shouldn't run well' - can Badger Beer winner Blackjack Magic become the master of Sandown?