'He should have a good chance at a track he’s won at before' - analysis and quotes for a seriously competitive handicap

Ultramarine: has placed in the top two on five of his previous six startsCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

This looks a seriously competitive handicap, but if there is a deserving favourite it's surely the in-form Ultramarine for David Evans.

Second four times and a winner once out of his last six starts, Ultramarine was an eyecatcher coming from the back under Jordan Williams in a steadily run heat over 6f at Kempton last time and he'll appreciate going back up to 7f.

Williams, who claims 5lb, has ridden only six winners this year, but two have come in the past week, one of them for Evans on a 25-1 shot at this track.

Getting a run might not be too easy, as there isn't a huge amount of pace on, which could point to the chance of the usually prominently ridden Airshow, an ever-enthusiastic nine-year-old who has run really well on three of his four outings since he bagged the 14th win (seven on all-weather) at Salisbury in August.

Last year's winner, Riot, is back to defend his crown off a 2lb higher mark. It's easy to see him running well after he returned to form with a fair fifth as a 40-1 shot at Wolverhampton last month.

He followed up off his mark of 82 after his success last year, so his handicap mark is fair enough.

Others to consider include the lightly raced pair Extrication, who ran his best race for six months when second on his course-and-distance debut last month, and Arctic Dawn, who's shaped well on all three outings for Daniel & Claire Kubler this season.
Analysis by Paul Kealy

What They Say

Luke Morris, rider of Chola Empire
He’s a good solid all-weather campaigner who ran well on his return to the artificial at Wolverhampton last time. If he steps forward from that he should have a good chance at a track he’s won at before.

Joe Parr, trainer of G’Daay
He’s fresh and well after a break, and he’s returning to a track that he knows well. If he puts his best foot forward there is no reason why he can’t be competitive.

Stuart Williams, trainer of Revolutionise
He pops up now and again in these races but is not hard to predict. Marco Ghiani gets on well with him, which is a plus, so we’ll give it a go.

Roger Teal, trainer of Extrication
The draw (11) has dented our confidence a little as it’s very hard to win from out there at Chelmsford, but he ran well to be second to a subsequent winner there last time who got first run on us. If he gets a good position early he could well back that up.

Freddy Larson, rider of Tyke
It’s his first run at Chelmsford but he should like it. He was probably a bit fresh from a break last time at Kempton but if he steps up on that he should make the frame.

Tim Palin, racing manager to Middleham Park Racing, owners of Airshow
He’s coming to the end of his career and I think the plan is to run him here and then bow out at Southwell on December 13 when Pat Millman will ride him. He’s a previous course and distance winner, and we expect him to run well.
Reporting by David Milnes