'He needs to run big' - can My Prospero bounce back following perplexing drift in the market at Royal Ascot?

There were some strange market moves at Royal Ascot and a big gamble on the apparent no-hoper Mostahdaf in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes foretold what was going to happen. An equally perplexing development was the huge drift on My Prospero before his poor run there.

Evidently the market had an inkling that he was going to struggle to repeat his best form as a career-high Racing Post Rating of 124, achieved when third to Bay Bridge and Adayar in the Champion Stakes over the same course and distance last year, put him in with a huge chance.

My Prospero has a bit to prove following his disappointing fourth on that occasion, but four of his last five starts have come in Group 1 company and the one time he dropped into a Group 2 in that sequence he emerged successful in the Prix Eugene Adam at Saint-Cloud.

If My Prospero can reproduce his highest RPR that should be good enough as not a single winner of this race in the last ten years has reached that mark and the median RPR of those ten scorers is only 117. My Prospero has run to that level on four of his last six outings.

He isn’t the only one, though, so it looks like a strong running and Alflaila has recorded 117 and 123 on his last two outings. He achieved that 123 when landing the Darley Stakes at Newmarket in October and a reproduction of that form would put him on the favourite’s tail.

Royal Champion is the other who meets the standard of an average winner. He recorded an RPR of 119 when running away with the Wolferton at Royal Ascot last time and that was a 4lb career-best. He will need to make similar progress to compete with the big two this time.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Owen Burrows, trainer of Alflaila
He was injured in Bahrain while prepping for the Bahrain Trophy in November. It's a shame his season is only starting now, but his rehab has gone well, we've been pleased with his prep and it's great to get him back on track. He's a winner at York, and he's going an extra furlong, but he hit the line strong in both his Group 3 victories last year, so this looked a nice spot to start him.

William Knight, trainer of Checkandchallenge
He worked with the visor on the other day and that seemed to help him concentrate. He just got too far back at Ascot from his bad draw that day, but he saw the trip out well and I don't think it will be an issue here. This track will suit him better as they get racing quite far out and I think the going is in his favour. He should run a big race.

Johnny Murtagh, trainer of Mashhoor
He's on a bit of roll at the moment and I suppose the next step is a Group 2. He has a few pounds to make up on the ratings, but he's in good form and the track and ground should suit. I thought he was very good last time out, he was able to bowl along and get away from them. He has to do it all again here and he might need a little bit more given it's a Group 2.

William Haggas, trainer of My Prospero
He seems to have come out of his run at Royal Ascot in good shape and this looks the right race for him. He needs to run big in a tight little race.

Roger Varian, trainer of Royal Champion
He's been a bit inconsistent but he's had plenty of time since Royal Ascot and he's training lovely. He looks great, and he loves a bit of juice in the ground but not too much. I'd say that good to soft is his sweet spot. We've had this in mind for him since Ascot and it's a small field but a pretty strong renewal. Owen Burrows' horse looks strong but the race should suit ours.
Reporting by Harry Wilson

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